Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 111637
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
937 AM MST Thu Apr 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep warm and dry weather across the
region today before southerly winds strengthen and temperatures
start to cool on Friday. Expect gusty winds each afternoon into next
week. A low pressure system will move into the area on Monday
bringing us our next chance for some showers.
&&
.UPDATE...High pressure will continue to dominate our weather
across the Southwest for this afternoon. Expect light, south-
southeast winds of 5-15 mph and mostly clear skies. Temperatures
are forecast to be the warmest of the week with highs 5-10 degrees
above average. The weather pattern begins to change on Friday and
into the weekend as the ridge of high pressure moves off towards
the east, making way for low pressure to impact our region from
the west. Stronger southwest winds and cooler temperatures remain
on track during this time. No changes needed.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /417 AM MST/...Quiet weather will continue today and
through the weekend. High pressure pushes to the east later today
as weak trough approaches. Ahead of the trough we will have warm
air moving in from the south-southwest, allowing the temperatures
to warm, around 5-10 degrees above normal. With plenty of
sunshine, it should be a great day to enjoy the outdoors.
The trough starts to push into our area on Friday. However, the
track keeps it off to our south and east as it crosses the state and
with extremely limited moisture we will not be able to squeeze much
out of it. Some clouds may develop as it moves through and
temperatures will cool off just a bit for Friday. Winds will start
to increase with gusts around 25-35 mph Friday afternoon. With RH
values dropping down to 10-20% across the region, there will be an
elevated fire weather concern but with most areas still not having
had a green up this spring, concerns may be slightly less.
The main weather feature to focus on as we move into the new week is
a low pressure that will drop southward down the California coast
over the weekend. Deterministic models are coming more in line with
each other that the low will move inland on Sunday, before digging
to the south Sunday night. This low will cross Arizona on Monday and
will bring increased chances for rain showers and high elevation
snow showers. Showers are likely to be more scattered than
widespread but we should at least see more clouds over the area. The
ensemble members still vary widely in just how much precipitation we
will see with this system so something for us to continue to monitor
over the next several runs.
A second trough digs down from the north on Tuesday. This feature
will remain mostly off to the north of our area but a few showers
may find their way to areas along the AZ/UT border and towards Four
Corners. In addition to chances for rain/snow, we will continue to
have cooler temperatures and gusty winds across the region through
much of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...Thursday 11/18Z through Friday 12/18Z...VFR conditions
and winds generally under 15 kts are forecast.
OUTLOOK...Friday 12/18Z through Sunday 14/18Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Look for gusty southwest winds at 15-25 kts gusting
to 25-35 kts each afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Warm and dry weather will
continue each day. Mostly light winds expected for today, before
increasing on Friday with gusts between 25-35 mph. Minimum RH values
ranging from 10-20% each afternoon.
Saturday through Monday...Expect mainly dry weather except for the
development of low precipitation chances on Monday. Gusty winds out
of the southwest on Saturday and Sunday will shift to out of the
west on Monday. Turning much cooler early next week.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff