092
AWUS01 KWNH 140715
FFGMPD
TXZ000-141230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0680
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...Heart of Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140715Z - 141230Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient shallow convection near compact
mid-level circulation may result in localized 2-4" pockets over
wet grounds, posing small localized incidents of possible flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...KFWS and GOES-E 3.9um SWIR loop shows shallow but
organized line of convection across Hamilton to Hill county, TX
along the south and southwest quadrants of a 700-500mb vorticity
center.  VWP suite depicts this elongated wave well, including the
increase of 925-850mb slightly veered profile with 20-30kts of
increased flow.  Speed convergence along remnant boundary is
providing sufficient isentropic ascent along the northern MUCAPE
gradient with values of 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer moisture
(pooled below 700mb per CIRA LPW) at or above 2".  Fairly deep
warm cloud processes still have been producing 2-3"/hr rates and
given steering from 850-500mb is generally parallel or along-track
of the convergence boundary toward the center of the vorticity
center near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro (per satellite imagery);
spots of quick 3-5" are possible over the next few hours.  Given
heavy rainfall/saturated grounds, FFG values from Ellis to San
Saba county are less than 2"/hr.  As such, localized flash
flooding is considered possible over the next few hours.

Uncertainty lies upstream across the Colorado River Valley;
surface to 850mb low level jet is less orthogonal to the deeper
layer shear axis aloft and almost parallel. However, the
anticyclonic turning of the LLJ responding to the mid-level
vorticity center may have some convergence along the eastern side
of the LLJ and support back-building toward the southwest of the
ongoing convective line.  Coverage should be more scattered in
nature IF cells do develop, but given even higher ground
sensitivity due to last evening`s convection, have included it in
the area of concern though with a much lower probability and
higher uncertainty factor.   An upstream MPD should be forthcoming
for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grand Valley of
South-Central Texas.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32979705 32829619 32269581 31669621 31249670
            30789811 30849875 31219892 31779873 32519798