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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
606 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MAIN CHANGE IN UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT. LOTS
OF SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THINK REBOUND
WILL BE SLOW EXCEPT OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE SE WINDS WILL ADVECT
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY

DRYLINE WAS MIXING EASTWARD. IT WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF
KLHX TO KSPD. DWPTS OVER THE TRINIDAD REGION AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
HAVE TANKED...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS WERE GUSTING IN THE
25 MPH RANGE AT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS AT 2 PM.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE WILL NOT MIX OUT INTO
KS...THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL REMAINED CAPPED
AND LIKEWISE I DO NOT EXPECT ANY +TSRA NEAR THE BORDER.

WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...LOW CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME FOG WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE FAR E COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

RED FLAG CONCERNS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN. I AM CERTAIN WE WILL SEE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS TOMORROW. ONLY E LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES ARE IN THE "YES" COLUMN ON THE FUELS PAGE
AND HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THESE
AREAS.

OTHER AREAS MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
S EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN DURING
MIDDAY AND COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. FOR
THIS REASON I DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WX HILITES FOR THIS
REGION.

THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT AS COOLER...CLOUDIER AIR MOVES IN
DURING MIDDAY...RH VALUES WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL DECREASE
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA.

THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT OF A SVR STORM TOMORROW OVER FAR EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTY. SPC WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK WITH A 45% HATCHED AREA
JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TOUCHES KIOWA
COUNTY. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO KS AND ANY SVR
THREAT WILL BE INTO KS...BUT IF THINGS SLOW UP A BIT AND THE DRYLINE
STAYS TO THE WEST...THEN THE SVR THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. FOR NOW I
JUST HAVE A 10% POP FOR THE FAR NE PART OF KIOWA COUNTY.

BY NOON TOMORROW A SFC LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KLIC.
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BLAST EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL BRING A BIT COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME VIRGA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
THE RH VALUES A BIT AND COOL OFF THE AIR SLIGHTLY. OVER THE FAR SE
PLAINS STRONGER...DRIER SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS IS THE
AREA THAT WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WILL BE NEAR KGLD. PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL BE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT BLASTING
SOUTH OF I-70. LOTS OF VIRGA WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW OVER THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AROUND NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE FAR E PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE NEXT 84 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
VORT LOBES...WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

NAM12/GFS/EC INDICATE A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING...COOLING 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z
NAM12 SEEMS OVERDONE WITH QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS. THE EC KEEPS THESE AREAS MAINLY DRY AND THE GFS
HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS OVER KIOWA COUNTY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT FOR NOW 10-20 POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE 12Z GFS/EC SHOW 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 4C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH 06Z. THE 12Z
EC IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND...BUT DOES WIND DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. INCREASED POPS TO THE 20S
AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER GOOD COORD WITH DDC AND GLD.

LITTLE RECOVERY OF 700MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS THE FINAL PIECE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. THE 12Z EC
LOOKS TO BE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE
GFS. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFIES...MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NEED
TO BE TRIMMED BACK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. -PJC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS INTO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY...REACHING SPEEDS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

SOME VIRGA IS LIKELY TOMORROW AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SW MTNS...S
MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...FREMONT COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTY.

DRY WINDY WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE REGIONS ABOVE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE THREAT OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE
WERE TO START. WINDS ACROSS BACA COUNTY TOMORROW WILL GUSTS TO 40
MPH WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222>227.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ233-237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH