Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 251142 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
542 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
Patchy IFR/LIFR conditions exist across eastern/central areas
early this am. Impact should be short lived. Another crop of
SH/TS will develop this aft with impacts well into the eve hrs.
Most sites were given VCSH. LVS has the best chance for TS impacts
so used VCTS and tempo SH/outflow wind gusts for that location.
Also used VCTS at TCC during the early eve hrs.
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing over the
higher terrain and then moving into the valleys and plains
will continue through the middle of next week. A few strong
storms could erupt over the southeast and east central plains
Thursday afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with some of the storms as well. High temperatures
will be near to below average through next Wednesday.
Isolated showers linger over the south central and eastern plains
at the moment as an upper trough tracks over NM. A bit of a
challenge to find the surface front, but winds at CQC have gone
light easterly. Models not as bullish with the overall strength of
the front as they were a couple of days ago, although it still
appears as if there will be upslope flow in place this afternoon to
aid convection. Interesting the consensus pops are focused on the
north and west while low level moisture tends to be drier from the
RGV westward Thursday afternoon. However, didn`t make major changes
the next couple of days, but did raise highs for Thursday closer to
the latest guidance.
High pressure aloft across the southwestern U.S. with a trough along
the west coast will keep the state from drying out significantly
into the middle of next week. There may be a couple of days which
could be less active, especially next Wednesday and Thursday if the
GFS is right, but it`s too far out to have much confidence, and is
dependent exactly where the high center/trough axis end up. High
temperatures will be overall near to below average, while lows will
run close to normal or a few degrees above.
Not a lot of changes made to the gridded forecast. Current frontal
passage looks to be weaker than expected but still looking for
central areas to be favored this afternoon and evening in terms of
storms. Minor moisture seepages expected Friday into the weekend but
minor. Models remain a little topsy turvy for next week although gut
feeling is that the deeper Pacific trough over the west coast would
win out during the latter half of the week. This would mean a
potential Monsoon burst pattern. Confidence remains low to moderate
until the models and resolve and come to a more consensus solution
run to run.
Current cold frontal position near or just passed the I40 corridor
between Clines Corners to Tucumcari. The wind shift should briefly
bleed into the Rio Grande Valley this morning. The combination of
some slight warming and low level convergence should lead to central
areas being favored for storms today. Models also hinting at the
eastern plains getting into the wetting rain action but suspect more
southern portions versus northern areas. GFS and NAM are at odds
with the eastern plains rainfall depiction. Storm movement will
tend to be from west to east. Humidity values will remain on the
higher side although trend lower across western/central areas
compared to yesterday.
A secondary Pacific trough will slide over the northern/central
Rockies Friday/Friday night and continue a west to east steering
flow for NM storms. It appears that many of the storms will be
garden variety although some localized heavy rainers/strong storms
would be possible across the EC/SE plains.
Suspect there will be a slight uptick on rain coverage Saturday due
to a loose or weak shortwave trough found to the west of the state.
Some moisture may seep into the forecast area from the south and
east thus fueling additional storms. The wetting rain footprint
should increase slightly compared to Fri. The NAM is a bit more
bullish than the GFS for this scenario but they both are similar on
their upper level pattern.
It appears that Sundays crop of storms would tend to be a tad
drier...especially across northern areas due to some drier air
pushing in from the Great Basin. Residual higher moisture would
fuel some wetter storms across the southern tier of the forecast
area. Surface wind flow looks to be quite light...except for
downdrafts/outflows...on this day.
A broad easterly surface flow is expected to have developed by
Monday. Added moisture in the system should lead to an uptick in
wetting rain coverage Mon afternoon/evening. Both the GFS/ECMWF are
bullish for this scenario and dont have any reason not to believe
It gets a little murkier the rest of next week and will largely be
dependent on the development/orientation of the Pacific trough over
the west coast and the migration of the upper high from west to east
across the area. Really like the ECMWFs deeper Pacific trough
scenario. The ECMWF has been hinting at that picture a little more
than the GFS although the latest GFS is trending that way. This
would eventually mean higher moisture transporting northward out of
Mexico. Models are at odds with the transient nature to the initial
parent trough. I suspect it will be a bit slower to move eastward
compared to what the models are showing now. Uncertainty exists for
much of next week with a low to moderate confidence factor. A
Monsoon burst pattern is not out of the realm and would fit
climatology based on the past few Sept.