Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 010416 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016
Though a little later than ideal, decided to cut pops most
locales, except far ne NM, 5 to 15 percent for the rest of the pre
midnight period with even a bit of a cut thereafter. Wait was due
to concerns that dewpoints still very high for the end of Sept
across mainly central and sw NM and that perhaps with the
admittedly weak short wave approaching a few more showers or
storms would not be out of the question. But radar and fcst model
trends continue to argue against much developing. So the cuts were
.PREV DISCUSSION...609 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Low confidence forecast tonight for western NM as several factors
to consider on potential IFR vsbys with fog. Surface dewpoints have
not fallen much today with decent moisture still in place at KGUP
and KFMN. Radiational cooling tonight will battle the lack of any
additional precip today, so confidence not high enough to include
any mention of low vsbys tonight. The other challenge is guidance
continues to push some -SHRA over KABQ/KAEG southward to KONM this
evening with low confidence. Impacts do not appear significant
outside of erratic/gusty winds. A patch of mid clouds may linger
along and south of I-40 thru 08Z before dissipating overnight.
Light terrain dominated winds look likely at all terminals around
sunrise. Saturday should be a very nice day with light breezes and
a few spot -SHRA aft 21Z.
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor central and
eastern areas this afternoon into the evening period. Periods of
moderate to heavy downpours with gusty outflow winds will follow
some storms. Low clouds with periods of patchy fog could develop
again overnight across western and central areas. Look for drier
and warmer conditions over the weekend with total drying by
Sunday. Unsettled weather will impact the state Monday with an
approaching potent upper level low digging over the Great Basin.
Conditions will be cooler and breezier Tuesday and Wednesday.
Mid level water vapor imagery is showing drier, mid level air
filtering in across western New Mexico, pushing mid level
moisture eastward pass the central mountain chain. Visible
satellite shows cumulus clouds already bubbling over central and
western areas with help from daytime heating which will aid in
storm development this afternoon through the evening hours.
Several upper level shortwaves traveling across central New Mexico
will also aid development as well. Storms will gradually dissipate
overnight as most of the shortwave activity exits to our east.
Mid level drier air will continue filtering in from the west over
the weekend. Isolated storm chances will be limited to the high
terrain because of lingering surface moisture but conditions will
completely dry out by Sunday. 500 mb winds will become westerly
as they pick up speed leading into early Monday as the upper
level low deepens over the Great Basin.
A potent upper level low will deepen over the Great Basin late
Sunday into Monday before it reaches the northern Great Plains by
Tuesday. On Monday, subtropical moisture will surge northeastward
from the southwest mountains, across the central New Mexico to the
northeast plains ahead of the approaching storm system. At the
same time, a Pacific front will develop along the New
Mexico/Arizona border with drier and cooler air behind it.
Showers will develop ahead of the front as it pushes east but
there is a chance that activity could become severe along and
east of the central mountain chain. At this time confidence is
questionable about severity since the latest NAM12 run doesn`t
show much instability ahead of the front. Meanwhile, SW winds will
be strong to gusty areawide, with advisory level winds across the
western, central and northeastern high terrain. Drier and cooler
conditions will follow behind the front.
Dry, breezy northwest flow will dominate as the upper low churns
into the northern Great Plains. Wednesday and Thursday will be
mild and dry as upper level ridging develops to our southeast.
Return flow could bring some showers to southeastern areas the
latter half of the week.
Despite much drier air working over New Mexico in the mid levels of
the atmosphere, humidity recovery is looking even better tonight as
moisture remains in the lowest portions of the boundary layer. Left-
over moisture on Saturday may be sufficient to fuel a round of
afternoon convection over the higher terrain, but with very low
wetting potential. PWATs will definitely trend down this weekend as
a shortwave ridge moves east over the state Saturday and dry
westerlies increase on Sunday in advance of an approaching potent
upper low. The weekend drying will be accompanied by a warming trend
with daytime temperatures forecast above normal areawide by Sunday,
especially across the eastern plains.
A cooling trend will begin Monday behind a Pacific cold front. Winds
will increase significantly Monday, with a deepening lee side trough
and relatively strong temperature gradient with the front. Winds
will definitely hit critical threshold Monday, but the upper low is
expected to tap moisture from the eastern Pacific associated with a
tropical disturbance, so higher humidity values will likely preclude
critical fire weather conditions. The wetter 12z GFS solution brings
a decent shot at wetting precipitation to much of the area along and
ahead of the front. Otherwise, vent rates will be excellent areawide
on Monday. Strong west-northwest flow and a very dry airmass in
place on Tuesday would be capable of producing critical fire weather
conditions east of the central mountain chain, but temperatures will
generally be at or below normal and Haines values are forecast
around 4. Dry and breezy westerly flow will persist through
A warming trend will resume going into the end of next week with
increasing pressure heights and dry conditions persisting. Daytime
temperatures are forecast to be back above normal areawide by Friday
with increasing southwest flow.