Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 161156 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
456 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017
12Z TAF CYCLE
Main precipitation event is winding down but lots of residual low
lvl moisture which will plague the terminal sites during the next
24 hrs but especially through the morning hrs today. IFR/LIFR will
be widespread. Residual orographic/instability SH expected this
afternoon to early/mid eve. Some impacts to terminal sites
expected...especially favoring FMN/GUP/SAF. Using VCSH at this
time. A resurgence of lower CIGS/VIS expected Mon night but not as
hazardous compared to this morning.
.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017...
Patches of fog and dense freezing fog will prevail this morning,
mainly in valleys and across the Southeast Plains. Otherwise,
precipitation will diminish today except for over the Northern
Mountains and near Raton Pass. A few showers are possible this
afternoon along and near the Continental Divide and may increase
this evening with the help of a backdoor cold front across central
New Mexico. A warming trend through mid week will send daytime
temperatures back above normal most areas by Wednesday. The jet
stream is forecast to dip south across Southern California and the
Desert Southwest by the end of the week and through the weekend,
bringing a series of progressively colder systems with strong
winds and increasing chances for snow.
The first upper low is pulling northeast away from New Mexico as
a second, weaker upper low is developing near the northern Baja
Peninsula. Precipitation is diminishing most areas, but holding
on across the Northeast Plains and near Raton Pass. Will cancel
the southern periphery of advisories and the warning for the
Sandias/Manzanos given current absence of precipitation and latest
HRRR forecast for a continued downtrend this morning. Added a
mention of dense fog/freezing fog to the grids across the
Southeast Plains and Rio Grande Valley south of Espanola and a
dense fog advisory may be warranted later this morning.
A backdoor push behind the departing upper low later today into
this evening will provide upslope flow to central portions of our
area and interact with the approaching upper low to produce a
resurgence of precipitation overnight, when the mountains may
pick up a few more inches of snow. Otherwise, the downtrend will
continue Tuesday as the upper low moves across then exits
Wednesday. A warming trend through midweek will send daytime
temperatures above normal most areas by Wednesday. A shortwave
ridge will move across Thursday and downslope winds will help to
bring highs across portions of the Eastern Plains up into the low
The synoptic weather pattern will transition toward the end of the
work week as the jet stream pushes across Southern California and
the Desert Southwest and brings a series of progressively colder
troughs through the weekend and into next week. The first trough
will impact the area Thursday night into early Friday with strong
winds and mainly mountain snow. However, the second trough will
move-in quickly behind the first Friday night through Saturday and
will bring stronger winds and the potential for more widespread
snow. A third trough looks to impact our area early next week with
more snow. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast going into
the weekend given good agreement among the 00z medium range model
Wetting storm event will be winding down today. Left over mountain
showers...mainly snow...will remain over western/central areas.
A little bit of a better precipitation signature shows up across the
far NE plains due to wrap around from the main upper low and a back
door cold frontal push. Humidity will remain unusually high with a
fair bit of cloud cover. Wind speeds overall will be on the lighter
The unusually high humidity will remain during through Thu. Models
showing a mid level dry intrusion signature for Thu/Thu night but
pretty transitory. Lowered dewpoints slightly below model guidance
to account for this signature. High temps will gradually warm
through midweek but eventually lower by the end of the week. A
secondary low pressure area will develop over the state Tuesday with
residual impacts into Wednesday. This means abundant cloud cover
during the afternoon and some light shower chances favoring the
mountains. A ribbon of gustier WNW winds would impact central areas
Wed afternoon...especially to the lee of the Sandia/Manzano mtns.
The gradient would strengthen on Thu with additional breezy to
locally windy conditions favoring areas along and to the east of the
central mtns. Despite the upper low presence and areas of decent
mixing...transport winds will be on the lighter side the next 2
days. Thur more poor vent rates depicted by the modeling. Improving
vent rates for the latter half of the week areawide.
A series of Pacific waves and corresponding jet max translations
will occur starting late week and last into the earlier half of the
following week. This means periods of higher humidity/cloud cover
and cooler than normal temperatures. The jet track will determine
the actual stronger wind flow but did increase initial model
guidance numbers based on the depicted pattern by both the
ECMWF/GFS. Did this especially for Saturday across the southern
half. Precipitation will be likely with the individual waves.
Expecting precipitation as early as later Thur but certainly Fri
with the initial wave. The second wave is due Fri night/Saturday and
a third wave early next week. The initial waves look cold enough for
more snow than rain. Confidence is pretty good with this scenario
due to the model continuity but uncertain on who gets the most.
Western mtn slopes will most likely do pretty good with some
downsloping found across the east. Ventilation will most likely be
pretty good during this period most days.
Freezing Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for the
following zones... NMZ522-523-533>535-537.
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for the following
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ516>518-528>531.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ510>515-527.