Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 280857
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
257 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The main focus for the heavier showers and thunderstorms will shift
west and northward today. The northwest third to half of the state
will be favored with some localized flooding possible. Drier and more
stable air will infiltrate the state from the southeast and continue
on Saturday with peripheral storms across the west and north. Another
back door cold front will slide south and westward Sunday and Sunday
night and produce an uptick in thunderstorm coverage as well as
heavier rain that will last into the earlier part of next week. A
little drier trend later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of big changes made to the gridded forecast. The main focus
for the heavier rain will shift west and northward today. Reviewed
antecedent soil moisture conditions as well as anticipated heavier
rain areas which includes the WC and NW mountains/plateau. Thought
about a flash flood watch for those areas but decided that the
heaviest convection would be a bit more spotty compared to the past
24 to 36 hours so decided to hold off. Either way...localized flash
flooding will remain a threat across the NW third to half of the
forecast area today into tonight. Will go ahead and end the current
Watch early since the rainfall event has turned more stratiform. A
swirl clearly shows up in the radar imagery indicating some sort of
MCV/atmospheric wave. The wave should keep precipitation going a
little longer over the central valley. Went a little above model
guidance for temps across the SE. Threw in some last minute fog for
the east slopes of the central mtns and adjacent plains as well as NW
areas this morning. A drier and more stable atmosphere across the
mid levels will continue to push further over the forecast area from
the southeast.

The drier and more stable layer of the atmosphere will invade a
little more of the area on Saturday. The threat for heavier rain
will be found across the western and northern periphery of the state.
Continued to go a little above model temp guidance across the SE.

Models have been steadfast about another back door cold front but
they continue to up the timing. It now appears that the back door
is expected to nudge its way into NE portions of NM during Sunday.
All of the operational models show this slightly quicker trend but
differ slightly on the exact timing. Adopting a more progressive
approach due to the anticipation that the boundary will be
convectively enhanced. This includes shifting higher PoPs further
south. This appeared to have happened with the last cold front so
like the odds.

With the aforementioned cold frontal boundary, the stage would be set
for another active thunderstorm period with increasing coverage and
localized flash flooding Monday/Tuesday and quite possibly Wednesday.
A drier trend is still expected later next week although there is
some uncertainty due to another possible cold frontal boundary and a
repeat moistening process.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist and unstable air mass lingering over the west and central
today while drier air observed by satellite in the low and mid level
water vapor imagery invading the southeast and east central. The
drier air to make more progress into the east and south tonight and
Saturday, leading to less areal coverage of convection, although the
west and north central will remain relatively active. Minimum and
maximum humidities over portions of the east central will trend
downward today through Sunday before increasing again, while high
temperatures warm a few degrees.

The upper ridge axis looks to extend from the Great Basin through
New Mexico for the next several days, although the dominant upper
high center of circulation may remain to our east through the
weekend, then shift over the Great Basin early next week. Another
surface/outflow boundary may partially affect the northeast Saturday
night/early Sunday, with a much stronger reinforcement Sunday
afternoon/night. This will likely initiate a return of showers and
storms to the east, after the short period of drier air and lower to
nil pops today through Saturday. Early to mid next week will likely
be active as well over most of the forecast area. However, by the
end of next week, forecast models strengthen the Great Basin high
and build it into the central and northern Rockies, resulting in a
decrease of moisture. However, some moisture will linger, trapped
under the ridge, but a trend towards drier and warmer would be
reasonable given the upper air pattern.

Precipitation early this morning over the west and central was
mostly light rain with some embedded heavier rain, along with
isolated brief thunderstorms. This activity should slowly continue
to wane, then regenerate over the western and northern high terrain
after midday. Locally heavy rainfall is most likely over the
northwest third of the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
Cell motion today and tonight will be mostly to the northwest or
northeast but over the Four Corners, cells may track to the south or
move erratically. Motion Saturday would be to the north and
northeast. Vent rates today and Saturday are forecast to be good to
excellent central and east with areas of fair to poor rates west.
High temperatures for the next 7 days will be near to below average.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high pressure remaining over NM or just to the east over TX
with very moist and unstable air mass. Sct to nmrs showers and isold
tstms with mt obscurations and lcl MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys to persist
through 12Z and beyond over central and wrn NM although some
relatively drier air to work into portions of ern NM by 29/00Z. Cell
motion will be at times slow and variable, but may become better
organized in an northerly direction aft 28/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  64  86  63 /  30  70  40  20
Dulce...........................  80  56  79  55 /  60  80  40  40
Cuba............................  77  57  79  57 /  80  70  30  40
Gallup..........................  81  58  81  58 /  70  70  30  40
El Morro........................  77  55  79  55 /  80  60  30  50
Grants..........................  81  57  83  57 /  80  60  30  30
Quemado.........................  78  57  79  58 /  60  60  30  50
Glenwood........................  85  63  85  64 /  40  50  30  50
Chama...........................  75  53  74  52 /  80  80  60  40
Los Alamos......................  77  59  80  59 /  50  50  30  30
Pecos...........................  76  57  80  58 /  60  50  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  74  54  76  53 /  50  70  30  30
Red River.......................  65  49  68  48 /  80  80  40  40
Angel Fire......................  70  49  72  48 /  60  70  50  80
Taos............................  77  55  80  55 /  40  60  30  20
Mora............................  73  55  77  55 /  60  50  30  30
Espanola........................  83  63  87  62 /  40  50  20  20
Santa Fe........................  77  59  81  60 /  60  40  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  81  60  85  60 /  60  40  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  64  88  65 /  60  30  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  66  89  67 /  60  30  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  66  91  67 /  60  30  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  65  90  66 /  60  30  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  89  64  92  65 /  60  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  86  65  89  66 /  60  30  10  20
Socorro.........................  89  66  91  67 /  40  10  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  58  84  59 /  60  40  20  20
Tijeras.........................  82  61  86  62 /  60  40  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  59  85  59 /  50  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  80  59  83  58 /  40  20  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  83  61  86  61 /  30  20  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  86  63  89  64 /  20  10  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  80  58  82  58 /  20  10  10  10
Capulin.........................  77  59  81  57 /  40  40  30  30
Raton...........................  80  58  84  57 /  30  60  20  30
Springer........................  83  60  86  60 /  30  40  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  78  57  82  57 /  40  40  20  20
Clayton.........................  84  64  88  63 /  30  20  10  30
Roy.............................  82  62  86  62 /  20  20  10  10
Conchas.........................  91  68  95  69 /  20  10   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  91  64  93  66 /  20   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  95  69  97  69 /  10  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  95  67  94  67 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  96  69  95  68 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  95  69  95  69 /  10   0   0   5
Roswell......................... 100  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  64  92  65 /  10   5   5   5
Elk.............................  85  61  86  61 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
none.

$$

50



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