Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 041723 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1023 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

Some low stratus clouds are still eroding away over southeastern
New Mexico, and the low clouds in the San Juan basin in
northwestern parts of the state have mostly dispersed. Thus, mostly
clear skies and VFR conditions are in place over the ABQ forecast
area. Light and variable breezes will prevail most locations with
the current gusty drainage wind at KSAF slowly diminishing into
the mid afternoon. Some redevelopment of low clouds is possible
again early Monday morning in SE New Mexico, but confidence is
too low for any mention of MVFR ceilings in any TAF sites.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

Patchy fog east central and southeast this morning to give way to
mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon with
below average high temperatures. Short lived warming trend Monday
with highs near to above average and increasing west winds. Windy
and turning colder Tuesday through Tuesday night with snow
showers possible over the north. Drier for the rest of the work week
but another front looks to bring another cool down as well as
northern mountain snow showers by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog early this morning for the east central and southeast.
Not so confident fog may develop for portions of the northwest and
west central this morning so trimmed a bit on the areal coverage in
the current early morning weather grid. Otherwise the upper low, now
well to our south, will continue to depart as stronger westerly
winds aloft push into the central Rockies. High temperatures will
be warmer today but still mostly below average.

Winds start to strengthen Monday as the next system approaches and
a surface lee trough develops. This boosts high temperatures above
average by a good 5 to 10 degrees across the east, with near
average afternoon highs west. The models remain at odds with how far
south any precipitation may occur Tuesday and Tuesday night, with
the ECMWF wetter and painting measurable precipitation into the
west central mts south of I-40. The GFS is mostly dry overall, so
took a blend pop-wise which features the nrn mts as well as ne NM
near the Colorado border, thanks to a decent cold front. Some of
the north, especially the unsheltered higher terrain, may see
westerly wind gusts to around 50 mph.

Dry with moderating winds and temperatures by Thursday but another
similar to Tuesday`s system looks possible by the upcoming weekend.
Generally dry northwest flow aloft to prevail thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Quiet weather expected today. Stronger jet stream impacts will occur
during the week into the following weekend with a significant cool
down projected.

The weather pattern will turn much more quiet today. The storm
system that just impacted the area will move eastward over southern
TX. The wind flow will be on the lighter side with near to cooler
than normal high temps and higher RH readings.

Models have been projecting an active jet pattern for the past few
days across the central/southern Rockies during the
week...especially earlier half. Surface wind speeds will increase on
Monday and continue to be breezy/windy at times on Tuesday. A cold
frontal intrusion will impact the eastern plains on Tuesday. Despite
the increasing wind speeds...surface RH readings will generally be
above 15 percent. With that being said...localized areas of near 15
pct humidity and strong wind will be possible Monday afternoon
across the EC plains. Most areas will experience increasing
ventilation rates.

A pronounced cooler airmass will invade the forecast area Wed/Thur
morning. Decreased dewpoint model values due to the Arctic/Polar
origins of the airmass. Wind speeds will decrease some during this
period but still looking at some breeziness. High temps will range
between 5 to 20 degrees below normal. The ECMWF is still sticking to
its guns for a further south tracking jet while the GFS has been
further north. The Canadian model which was further south with the
ECMWF has tracked further north and much closer to the GFS now.
Mentioning this because precipitation associated with the wave
passage will be tied to how far south the jet dives. Still looking
at some sort of wetting precipitation across the far north although
confidence is wavering a bit. Ventilation will still be decent due
to a brisk NW flow on Wed but drop considerably on Thursday.

Another jet impulse is expected to affect the forecast area later
Fri into next weekend. Latest GFS/ECMWF are less bullish for decent
precipitation and more bullish for increased wind and ventilation.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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