Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011842 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1242 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
RESHAPED THE WIND ADVISORY...ALLOWING SOME ZONES TO EXPIRE AND
EXTENDING IT FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO SOCORRO AND CARRIZOZO...BASED ON
THE LATEST LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING
BETWEEN ALBUQUERQUE AND AMARILLO...AS A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
MOVED INTO THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW PERSISTED OVER THE WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BORDER.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1154 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH ABOUT 04Z.
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-520-524-525.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

&&

$$

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