Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 271232

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
432 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Main feature over the next 24 hours is an upper
level trough and associated weak surface low pressure system
moving across the southern gulf. This will keep shower activity
ongoing across much of the panhandle through tonight. The most
prevalent shower activity will be across the southern panhandle.
As the surface low shifts into the NE Pacific tonight, winds will
begin to shift northerly over the inner channels. Precipitation
chances will also decrease over the northern panhandle late
tonight as an offshore flow regime begins to take shape.
Maintained slight chance of thunderstorms over the southern gulf
as the upper low and cold pool moves over the area today and

Used the 06z NAM for minor updates to the previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...The low (from above) will continue moving southeast
towards the northwest coast of the CONUS by Thursday and the few
persisting showers should end on Wednesday across the southern

Skies clear out Wednesday night and Thursday across the forecast
area from the north as high pressure builds over the western Gulf
of Alaska which will put in place a blocking ridge to keep
southeast Alaska dry for a several days. A temperatures Thursday
and Friday morning may be on the chilly side and the lows flirt
with the freezing mark.

Friday a short wave over northwest Canada will develop and move
south past the panhandle Friday and Saturday. This will help to
tighten up the pressure gradients and increase winds Friday and
Saturday. Northerly gales to max small craft winds over Lynn canal
should be expected. Situation is also setting up a favorable
mountain wave pattern for the downtown Juneau/Douglas Island area.
40 to 60 mph gusts or higher are possible depending on how the
models resolve the details over the upcoming runs. We will
continue to monitor this situation. Forecast confidence is average
to good through the weekend.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036.



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