Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 040528
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE. ONLY MINOR
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS ADJUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT
BUT THINK UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD WORK MOST AREAS. THE FAR
WEST MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV


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