Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
832 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS A BIT MORE
SUBSTANCE TO IT. WILL UPDATE TO LIKELY POPS WITH UP TO AN INCH
ACCUM FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AFFILIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOST SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-DAY.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 825 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR KISN-KMOT-KJMS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH. MVFR TO IFR IN CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM KDIK- KBIS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES SOUTH...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AT KBIS IN
THE AFTERNOON. KDIK LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR OR LOW VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





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