Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 051756
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A VORT LOBE FROM THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP
A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL RAIN FREE TODAY. HOWEVER...A BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND COULD
AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...SO
LEFT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR A MORE STABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NO SEVERE
STORMS EXPECTED.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL BE IN THE SOUTH HALF...MAINLY AFFECTING MGM AND TOI.
ONE LARGE MASS OF RAIN HAS SLIPPED SOUTH AND EAST...AND ANOTHER
WAS IN MISSISSIPPI MOVING GENERALLY EAS-SOUTHEAST. A SHOWER OR TWO
MAY AFFECT TCL OR EET...BUT THINK THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MGM AND
TOI.

I THINK THE OVERALL TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WILL BE FOR
ALL OF THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY GET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAVE
GONE WITH A RAIN FREE TAF FORECAST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. HAVING SAID
THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND THE AIR MASS IS STILL
QUITE JUICY...SO SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INDEED POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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