Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 190533
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE
(MEASURABLE) RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...MORE-SO WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE THINNEST OR LATE TO ARRIVE.
WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED WITH WAVE NUMBER ONE AS WE WAIT FOR THE RISE OF
WAVE NUMBER 2. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF AREA OF MVFR FOG FOR ANB AND ASN AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY. BY 15Z WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND
TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN
LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND
SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z SATURDAY. WILL DETAIL THIS A TOUCH MORE WITH THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS AS WELL AS ENDING TIMES FOR THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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