Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
645 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

For 12Z Aviation.



Upper level heights begin increasing today as the ridge begins
building. Models are not quite as robust this run but the heights
are still in the 588dam range. The low level thicknesses and 850
temps are generally the same as previous runs. Very little spread
once again from the GFS ensemble members with highs 85 to 90,
while the ECMWF is slightly higher and displays more standard
deviation. Still leaning toward the higher members of the
ensembles with highs 86 to 91 through Friday. Rain chances remain
low as the mean relative humidity values stay in the 50-60 range,
precipitable water values just over 1 inch, and little in the way
of a trigger.

By the weekend, an upper low moves westward from the Atlantic and
will affect Central Alabama. Upper heights will fall east to west
and thicknesses and 750 temps follow suite. Will advertise a
gradient in highs from east to west Saturday and beyond. Rain
chances do not increase dramatically as upper flow is light but
moisture increases enough to mention small chances everywhere
mainly daytime.



12Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue across central Alabama through the
next 24 hours. The bit of light fog near TCL will quickly diminish
this morning.




Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with only minimal
rain chances the remainder of the week. Low level moisture will
increase slowly through the end of the week, but this afternoon
and Wednesday afternoon relative humidity values drop into the
30s. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.




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