Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 260457 AAC
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1157 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rain has ended for the evening. Should be a clear to partly cloudy
overnight period. No additional changes to the ongoing forecast.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A few small storms are present across WC Alabama, nearest to TCL.
This activity should be done by around 6Z. After which, we should
see VFR conditions for the most part with possibly some shallow
river fog overnight at TCL. Otherwise, for Friday, there will be
low pops across N Alabama as a weak disturbance goes around the
EC Conus upper ridge, but too low of a chance to mention at C
Alabama terminals at this time.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A prolonged period of generally dry conditions will continue thru the
weekend, with only low rain chances at times. Temps will remain
slightly above normal thru Sunday. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 229 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

Isolated showers across across central Alabama this afternoon should
dissipate by early evening due subsidence under strong upper ridge.
Upper air soundings indicate a pocket of drier mid level air
across southern Georgia and northwest Florida. Satellite/radar
imagery show minimal cloud cover across this region, and this
dry pocket should expand westward across south Alabama tonight
and Friday. Deeper moisture will pool across north Alabama on
Friday as the center of the upper high shifts eastward. The
lowering of 500mb heights and pooling of moisture should result in
higher coverage of convective activity across north Alabama on
Friday than today.

Beyond Friday the overall upper air pattern does not change much
across Alabama with a large scale ridge over the Gulf Coast
region. This ridge will make it difficult for any tropical system
to make a poleward movement. The models are not showing any
consensus with the tropical wave currently moving through the
Bahamas. The forecast for central Alabama will not show any
impacts from this tropical system due to uncertainty. Overall the
forecast will show little day to day variability with daytime
temperatures running above normal and low rain chances.

58/Rose

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  92  72  91  72 /  10  30  20  10  10
Anniston    74  92  72  92  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
Birmingham  76  92  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  74  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
Calera      74  92  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
Auburn      72  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  74  95  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        72  92  71  92  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

61/08/58



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