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000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$