Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 251805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO EASE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTH EASTERN HALF. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS NEAR EUFAULA. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE...SMOOTHED OUT THE TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AT 5-7KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    62  36  54  35  50 /  10  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      61  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      61  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  63  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        60  38  58  37  56 /  50  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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