Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 231136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER WEST BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
WINDOW.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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