Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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403
FXUS64 KBMX 270812
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
312 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening remains on
track as a broad upper-level trough continues to move eastward
from the ArkLaTex. Pre-frontal storms are expected to develop by
early afternoon in eastern MS and move into West and Northwest AL
as the upper trough axis moves through. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
and 0-6 km shear of 35-45 kts along with abundant dry air aloft,
should support a threat for hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and
damaging winds with clusters and supercell structures. The best
chance for severe storms should be near and northwest of I-59 with
a lesser threat extending as far south and east as I-85. With the
cold front still to our west and a modest low-level jet in place,
additional showers/storms could continue tonight and into
Tuesday. The severe threat should come to an end around 9 PM
tonight as the best deep-layer shear moves out.

Wednesday continues to look warm and drier as a 500 mb ridge
amplifies over the region ahead of yet another upper trough which
will affect our area on Thursday into Thursday night. Confidence
is slightly lower than 24 hours ago regarding the threat for
severe storms due to model inconsistency with the upper trough
and a less impressive warm sector. We will continue to maintain a
low-end threat for damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a few
brief tornadoes.

After a break on Friday and Saturday, the hits keep on coming.
Another strong storm system could impact the area late Sunday into
Monday. A severe weather threat cannot be ruled out, especially if
the system takes a more northerly track, reducing the chance of
coastal convection blocking the inland progression of instability.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

--Low clouds, fog to drive localized MVFR-IFR overnight into
morning; VFR returns toward/into Monday afternoon alongside budding
thunderstorms--

Low stratus deck is spreading northward from the central Gulf coast,
and should impact TOI and MGM by around 06Z. Clouds will spread
northward, with all terminals falling to MVFR or IFR cigs overnight.
Best chance for significant vis reductions due to fog is at MGM and
TOI. Boundary-layer warming and mixing will bring terminals back to
VFR with time toward Monday afternoon.

A shortwave trough will glance the area Monday afternoon. Areas of
thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop. Some of this
activity will continue into the evening hours as well. The best
chance for storms is across the northern terminals and there remains
certainty in the coverage of storms, and chances at any particular
terminal. Will maintain VCTS for now, adjusting the time back to
reflect latest model guidance. Also, we`ll have some gustiness in
the 15-20 knot range, aided by surface heating and present low-level
winds from the south..

89/14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
middle of next week, with the highest rain chances today and
Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  60  78  54  81 /  60  70  40  10  20
Anniston    79  61  78  57  82 /  50  50  40  10  20
Birmingham  79  62  78  58  83 /  60  60  40  10  20
Tuscaloosa  81  63  80  59  85 /  50  60  40  10  10
Calera      78  63  78  59  84 /  50  50  30  10  20
Auburn      78  61  78  60  83 /  30  40  30  10  20
Montgomery  82  63  83  60  86 /  30  40  30  10  10
Troy        81  61  82  60  86 /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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