Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 010502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE
OF A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM FORMING GIVEN
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NO
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING UPSTREAM. HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN SOME LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND REBOUNDING PWATS EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
MADE SOME UPDATES TO TRIM BACK THE RAIN CHANCES
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS CAN BECOME CALM.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM MISSISSIPPI LATE
TONIGHT TOWARDS ALL OF THE TAF SITES. A BIT OF LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STRATUS ARRIVES AT TCL/EET WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  59  77  56  74 /  70  40  60  50  30
ANNISTON    80  62  78  58  74 /  70  40  60  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  63  78  59  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  81  62  77  59  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
CALERA      80  63  78  60  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
AUBURN      81  64  80  62  76 /  50  40  60  50  40
MONTGOMERY  83  66  82  63  78 /  50  40  50  50  40
TROY        84  66  84  64  78 /  40  40  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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