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000
FXUS64 KBMX 231139
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
639 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Rainfall has really increased right along the front as the the
airmass has remained fairly untapped in the west during the day.
Based on rainfall and current observations, the cold front is
right  along I-65 and will be pushing eastward through the rest
of the overnight period. May be right on the eastern edge of the
forecast area at daybreak so left categorical pops in through 10
am. Clouds will remain across the area as an upper low will swing
through during the day. Look for isolated to scattered rain
chances with the upper low through the afternoon. May become more
drizzle by the late afternoon in the far northeast. Slow clearing
tonight will result in temperatures staying in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

16

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Monday.

The Eastern CONUS trough will continue to deepen on Tuesday as a
strong shortwave moves from the Northern Plains into the Ohio
Valley, setting up a strong cold advection regime. Afternoon
temperatures will struggle to rise above 60F in the North on
Wednesday, and morning lows on Wednesday and Thursday should reach
the upper 30s for low-lying and sheltered areas.

A transition to warmer conditions is expected on Thursday and
Friday as southerly flow develops in response to a large trough
forming in the western CONUS. Model spread has tightened a bit on
the arrival time of the next front, ranging from Friday afternoon
into early Saturday morning. The ECMWF continues to show a solid
band of rain along the front, while the GFS has been waffling
between dry and wet. The forecast will lean toward the wetter
solution with the highest rain chances centered on Saturday and
Saturday evening. If the wetter solution verifies, temperatures
may not rise out of the 40s/50s on Saturday behind the front. The
cold airmass should continue to pour into the region on Sunday
and Sunday night, potentially setting the stage for our first
frost and/or freeze of the season.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Cold front now pushing through TOI and ANB. MVFR/IFR cigs behind
the front will persist for several hours this morning at all
sites. Look for lifting of heights after 15Z/17Z to MVFR
conditions. These MVFR conditions will remain in the north through
the day as the main upper low swings through. Left VCSH in the
forecast as there could be a brief passing shower, but should not
cause anymore restrictions that what will already be in place.
The most concentrated cigs will be in the north. Clearing after 3Z
with winds calming down some as the night progresses.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper low will move through today behind a cold front. Light rain
showers may be possible across the north through the afternoon. Dry
through most of the week, with rain returning late Friday and into
next weekend. Relative humidity values should remain above critical
thresholds. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  48  64  39  60 /  70  10   0   0   0
Anniston    67  47  66  39  61 /  70  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  66  50  66  40  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  50  68  40  63 /  20  10   0   0   0
Calera      66  50  67  40  62 /  20  10   0   0   0
Auburn      69  49  67  41  62 /  90  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  71  49  71  43  65 /  20  10   0   0   0
Troy        70  51  70  41  64 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$