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000
FXUS64 KBMX 210450
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS. MADE SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BUT LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S STILL LOOK LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
UPDATES ON THE WAY.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO CLEAR AT TOI
SUNDAY...AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE THERE COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7KTS.

14

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

PESKY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND ARE JUST FINALLY ABOUT TO LEAVE OUR
SOUTHEAST TWO COUNTIES. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WHICH
OBSERVED AMPLE SUNSHINE.

ON TUESDAY WE WILL SEE OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE
INTO THE STATE. FORECAST THINKING CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE
INCREASING THE DEW POINTS ENOUGH FOR SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING BUT NOT LOOKING AT TOO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER TROUGH IS WEAK AND
BROAD OVER US WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
REMOVED MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES...AND
NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE HEAT OF THE
DAY WILL HELP TO GET A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY A STRONG
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT WITH AVAILABLE CAPE. BUT 0-6 SHEAR...
0-1 SHEAR...AND HELICITY ARE VERY LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF THE HWO.

THE RIDGE POST FRONT WILL BE SITUATED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES AND WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD BY THURSDAY. SO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD EVER SO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND A WARMING MODERATING AIR MASS.
THIS ONE AGAIN HAS THE MAIN DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND IT MAY
FIZZLE OUT AS IT REACHES THE AREA BUT IT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN FRIDAY WITH LOW POPS LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE STALLING.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  77  58  75  53 /   0  10  30  70  10
ANNISTON    49  77  58  75  53 /   0   0  20  70  10
BIRMINGHAM  52  78  60  76  53 /   0  10  20  70  10
TUSCALOOSA  52  78  60  77  55 /   0  10  20  70  10
CALERA      52  77  59  76  55 /   0   0  20  70  20
AUBURN      49  76  57  76  56 /   0   0  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  52  79  59  79  58 /   0   0  10  60  20
TROY        51  78  59  79  59 /   0   0  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$