Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 010009
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
709 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Busy day across the southeast as much of Central Mississippi was hit
hard early this morning.  This sent a large and rather ominous cold
pool accelerating eastward across Alabama well ahead of the main
frontal forcing. This cold pool will develop additional
thunderstorms right along it with an occasional severe wind gust or
two, but it seems that it is weakening as it progresses east.  As
instability is still modest in the east, will continue to hold on to
a slight risk for the remaining counties that are ahead of the line.
The southern end of the line has lost a little momentum, so it is
possible that the threat may linger down near the I85 corridor
through much of the evening and possibly into the overnight until
the frontal forcing sweeps through late. Further north, the line is
still translating east rather quickly and should be into Georgia
over the next several hours. Any backside redevelopment along the
front should not be of concern severe-wise given the decrease in
instability thanks to the expansive rain shield.

17/KLAWS


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

--Rain and thunderstorms continue tonight w/ localized impacts to
 visibility/ceilings; breezy, calmer and clearing through Monday--

As of 00Z/7PM, the progress of a southwest to northeast-oriented
line of rain and thunderstorms has slowed atop central Alabama.
There`s about an even mix of plain rain and swaths of thunderstorms.
The heaviest of activity in the short-term will be toward MGM-TOI
on the leading edge of the complex with flight categories as low
as IFR/LIFR (rain with occasional instances of nearby lightning
elsewhere). Instances of breezy southerly flow will continue with
gustiness as well, turning clockwise overnight to early Monday
morning.

An upper trough and surface cold front will remain in play through
tonight. Doppler radar is showing an increase in returns back in
Mississippi near the approaching cold front; thus, precipitation
chances remain in the TAFs tonight into early-mid Monday morning.
I`ve kept VFR visibilities and ceilings with this activity, but
we`ll monitor for necessary adjustments. As we step through the
remainder of Monday, expect drying conditions and a clearing sky.
Surface winds will be aligned toward the ~west-southwest, and
will be on the breezy/gusty side.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong gusty winds possible today ahead of an approaching cold
front. Rain chances remain low through this afternoon as the cold
front moves through. There are no major fire weather concerns aside
from the gusty winds. RHs will remain high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  73  50  79  54 / 100  50  10  10  10
Anniston    60  73  51  79  55 / 100  60  10  10  10
Birmingham  58  74  54  81  59 /  90  30  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  56  75  53  83  57 /  70  20  10  10  10
Calera      59  75  54  81  58 / 100  30  10  10  10
Auburn      64  74  55  80  59 / 100  80  10  10  10
Montgomery  62  77  54  84  58 / 100  50  10  10  10
Troy        64  77  54  83  57 / 100  80  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$


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