Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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885
FXUS64 KBMX 160620
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
120 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025

 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across central Alabama
   today. To avoid heat-related illness, heat safety should be
   exercised for people and pets.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025

An elongated west-east 500mb ridge axis will be overhead today,
which will promote another day of hot and humid conditions. A
moderate to major heat risk will exist. At least isolated shower
and thunderstorm activity is forecast for central Alabama, aided
by the summertime air mass and a broad low-level confluence
pattern. A greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms should
exist near and south of the 85 corridor due to the tropical low
moving across the northern Gulf (Invest 93L).

The center of 93L should be near southeast Louisiana at the
48-hour point/on Thursday. Due to the ridge weakening and a
northward surge in tropical moisture, there should be more in the
way of shower and thunderstorm activity, but focused south of the
20 corridor the way things currently stand.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025

Models suggest 93L will turn northward over Louisiana between
48-72 hours as it rounds the western side of the ridge. Ensemble
data point to Friday featuring the best potential for a
scattering of showers and thunderstorms, related to the tropical
low, across all of central Alabama.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue over the
weekend with a moderate heat risk.

The 500mb ridge is forecast to strengthen next week, leading to
the prospect for high temperatures reaching the middle 90s with
humid conditions resulting in heightened heat risks. Showers and
thunderstorms will be around in some fashion as well.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. The best
potential for a brief interruption from a PM shower or
thunderstorm is at MGM but we`ll monitor elsewhere for pop ups.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather variables are not expected to present any issues over
the next several days. 20-foot winds should average less than 10
mph with shifts in heading from day to day. Spells of showers and
thunderstorms are expected as well, especially afternoon into
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  73  93  72 /  20  20  40  10
Anniston    92  73  91  73 /  20  20  40  10
Birmingham  96  75  92  75 /  20  10  40  10
Tuscaloosa  96  76  92  75 /  20  10  50  10
Calera      94  75  91  74 /  20  10  50  10
Auburn      91  73  90  74 /  30  10  50  10
Montgomery  94  75  92  74 /  30  20  70  10
Troy        92  72  92  72 /  50  20  70  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-
Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite