Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251133
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
633 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly lift northwards across the area today.
A cold front will cross the region later tonight. High pressure
will build across the region later Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630am update...Freezing rain and sleet has moved north of the
area...leaving just freezing drizzle in the northern zones. Will
maintain the end time for the advisory at 10am.  Fog continues
to creep northward and the biggest question for today will be
the disposition of the Dense Fog Advisory. Today may be one of
those rare days in this forecast area when the advisory is kept
up all day...or at least renewed for later this afternoon into
the evening. The arrival of the frontal rain should finally
alleviate the situation later this evening.

Previous discussion...
Cold air advection in the north has stopped and the rest of the
day and evening will feature the slow northward movement of a
warm front into the forecast area. Behind this front to the
south is very warm and humid air. Expect a very gradual warming
due to cold air damming under a persistent frontal inversion.
Will keep freezing rain in the forecast in northern Aroostook
until mid to late morning. The moist southeast flow and warm air
advection will likely cause a lot of very low clouds, fog and
drizzle...especially in the upslope terrain of Piscataquis and
north-central Penobscot counties. Have extended the Dense Fog
Advisory until 10am and it may need to be evaluated for
continuation in areas near the coast as well as Piscataquis
County and north-central Penobscot County. Warming will arrive
earlier for Bangor and most of the Down East region with highs
reaching near 50F by late afternoon. These temperatures and dew
points in the mid to upper 40s will accelerate snow melt in the
Flood Watch area. The cold front will work its way into the
forecast area Saturday night with temperatures and dew points
still rising before midnight. In general, most areas are
expected to receive a half to three quarters of an inch of rain.
The front will move quickly across the area and that`s good
news. On the other hand, with a sharp, negatively-tilted upper
trough and the entrance region to a strong upper jet, the
potential for locally heavy showers or even a thunderstorm will
have to be monitored. Forecast soundings are showing instability
aloft on Saturday night along the front. Did add mention of a
slight chance of thunder in tonight`s forecast. The frontal
precipitation will end as snow early Sunday morning with
potential for a quick coating of a half-inch or less...mostly in
the Allagash.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trof will cross the region Sunday with mostly
cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across the
north/mountains. Expect a mostly cloudy morning with a partly
cloudy afternoon across the remainder of the forecast area
Sunday. Gusty west winds will occur across the entire region
Sunday with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. A cold front will approach
northern portions of the forecast area later Sunday night with
partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers
late. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are expected across the
remainder of the region Sunday night. The cold front crosses the
region Monday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
mostly morning snow showers across northern areas, with partly
cloudy skies elsewhere across the region. High pressure then
builds across the region Monday night. Temperatures will be at
above normal levels Sunday/Monday.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Tuesday with a warm front
approaching Tuesday night. Expect increasing clouds Tuesday
night with a chance of snow late. Low pressure will approach
from the southwest Wednesday drawing the warm front north across
the region. Snow will transition to rain, from south to north,
across the forecast area Wednesday. Accumulating snow is
possible across mostly central/northern portions of the forecast
area Wednesday before the transition to rain. The low will
cross the region early Thursday with rain in advance of the low.
The low exits across the maritimes later Thursday drawing
colder air across the region. The rain should transition back to
snow across mostly central and northern areas later Thursday
before tapering to snow showers. Partly cloudy skies along with
a slight chance of snow showers are expected across the region
Friday. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Tuesday
through Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Dense fog will continue for BGR, BHB and most
terminals south of HUL into the morning. Conditions may lift at
BGR enough to exceed airfield mins by late morning, but will
likely decrease to...or below a quarter mile again towards
sunset through the evening. Elsewhere, freezing rain and drizzle
will end north of HUL by late morning, but will be replaced by
LIFR to VLIFR cigs and fog. LLWS will affect all terminals by
later this afternoon into the evening. A cold front...with
possible embedded thunder will cross after midnight and lift all
terminals to VFR by daybreak Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Sunday,
mostly across the north and mountains. West winds will gust up
to 30 to 35 mph Sunday. VFR conditions are expected across the
region Sunday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible
across the north and mountains again Monday. Generally expect
VFR conditions across the region Monday night through early
Tuesday night, with MVFR conditions possibly starting to develop
later Tuesday night. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels
Wednesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is the primary concern with a warm humid air mass
moving over the cold waters. Winds will pick up this afternoon
but fall short of SCA criteria until late tonight behind a cold
front.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Watch has been issued for the waters from
Sunday morning into the evening. Small craft advisory level
conditions are then generally expected later Sunday night into
Monday night. However, winds could approach gale levels Monday.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No changes to the Flood Watch were made with this forecast
cycle. Snow melt from the deep snowpack continues through
tonight with rainfall amounts of just over a half inch by
Sunday morning. Water levels are starting to rise modestly on
the river gauges on the Piscataquis and its branches, but the
best response should be later Saturday night into Sunday. NERFC
and ensemble river forecasts continue rises into Sunday morning,
but nothing close to flood stages. The subtlety in the forecast
is that the Piscataquis River is expected to rise some 4 feet
at Dover-Foxcroft. The last estimate of ice thickness is just
over a foot. This rise would likely sufficient to break the ice
and cause some movement. Any movement means ice jams are a
threat. While the rises are nearly three feet at Grindstone, ice
thickness is greater and the odds of breaking up the ice are
less. Thus the focus is now sharpened towards southern
Piscataquis County.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     MEZ001>004.
     Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MEZ010-011-015>017-031-
     032.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross
Hydrology...MCW



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