Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 161622
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1222 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR IS POURING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:21 PM: ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES...OBSERVATIONS...AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE GALE WARNING WAS
CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BIGGEST CHALLENGES WILL BE FLOODING,
SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES.

FIRST THE SNOWFALL: TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH RAIN GOING TO SNOW AND
STARTING TO STICK EVEN ON THE ROAD SURFACES. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED
ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT PER THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS. THIS LOW IS
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE PRECIP SHIELD W/DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE.
DECIDED TO BOOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST A TRACE TO
POSSIBLY AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD END RATHER
QUICKLY BY 12Z(8 AM) AS THE FRONT AND SECOND LOW PULL TO THE EAST.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND
SLICK ROADS.

SECOND WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES: COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE 35 TO 40 AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK SHARPLY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS DROP OFF WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION. WE
TALKING LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

THIRD: FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO THE COMBO OF
RAIN/SNOWMELT AND ICE BREAKING UP ON THE RIVERS AND JAMMING.
REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED OR HAVING HIGH WATER ON THEM. THE SNOW/ICE
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN SOME BUT LEAD TO
ICY/SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON THE ROADS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW COULD ALLOW A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. COULD
THEN HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF MVFR FROM
KHUL NORTH TO KFVE. ANY REMAINING AREAS OF MVFR WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED AROUND MIDDAY AND THE GALE HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 8 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF.
BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MOVEMENT. HAVE COORDINATED
W/THE NERFC, AROOSTOOK EMA, AND MAINE STATE POLICE ON FLOODING
ISSUES. SOME RIVERS HAVE HIT FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE PISCATAQUIS
AT DOVER-FOXCROFT AND MATTAWAMKEAG. OTHER RIVERS SUCH AS THE
AROOSTOOK HAVE SEEN SPIKES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BOTH AT
MASARDIS(MASM1) AND WASHBURN(WSHM1) BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
FALLING OFF AS THE ICE HAS BROKEN UP AND BEGUN TO MOVE. AN ICE JAM
STILL EXISTS ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT FORT FAIRFIELD. THE ST.
JOHN WAS REPORTED TO BE OPEN WITH ICE FLOWING THROUGH IT W/NO REAL
ISSUES ATTM. THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT WEST ENFIELD(WENM1) IS SLATED
TO GO INTO FLOOD LATER TODAY. THEREFORE, THE FLOODING WILL NOT BE
TOTALLY DONE YET.

MANY ROADS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE WERE AFFECTED BY THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT W/SOME CLOSURES AND ROADS BEING
DAMAGED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY W/THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...CB





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