Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 271006
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
506 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE LATER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATUS DECK HAS ENVELOPED MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
IS RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. TENTATIVELY EXPECT
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER ABOUT
MID MORNING. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY WAS ALSO
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATED.

TONIGHT, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO COME EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OVER US IN THE EARLY EVENING, THEN IT MOVES EAST AND
LOOK FOR CLOUDS THICKENING FAST AFTER ABOUT 8 PM AND TEMPERATURES
LEVELING OFF. A WEAK, FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING
JUST NORTH OF US LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND A QUICK
SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WRAP UP PRETTY QUICKLY BY ABOUT 7
AM. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY. IT LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN FROM
BANGOR SOUTH, MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, AND A MIX IN
BETWEEN WITH THE AIRMASS WARMING ALOFT THROUGH THE EVENT LEADING
TO A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE MAY BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET, AND PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST, BUT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE EVENT, OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUCH THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE FAIRLY EASILY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY BREEZE, AND EXPECT
THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE TO MAKE IT UP TO AROUND PRESQUE ISLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHOT AROUND 6 OR 7 AM. AGAIN,
OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY MINOR EVENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRAW
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE EXITING LOW.
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST. EXPECT
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING, THEN A PERIOD OF IFR IS
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS A ROUGHLY 6 HOUR PERIOD
OF RAIN FROM BANGOR SOUTH, MOSTLY SNOW FROM CARIBOU NORTH, AND A
MIX IN BETWEEN.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE EASED IN THE WATERS, THUS
HAVE CANCELLED THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A WEST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. HOWEVER, ISSUED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND
25 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN EARLY SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS



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