Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240221
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1021 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE WHILE THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE CLEARING OUT. NW WINDS ARE
STILL RUNNING 5 TO 10 MPH WHILE THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST HAVE DROPPED
OFF TO LESS THAN 6 MPH. FROST A GOOD BET W/ADVISORY UP FOR THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST E OF BANGOR.

DRY SFC AIR...WITH VERY DRY AIR ALF...AND LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS
LATE TNGT AND ERLY WED MORN IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC HI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NGT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FOR MOST LOW TRRN LCTNS ACROSS THE N PTNS OF THE FA AND LOWER TO
MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SRN PTNS OF THE REGION. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE
HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV FOR ERN PTNS OF THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST LATE
TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN...AND MENTION PATCHY FROST LATE OVR
INTERIOR VLYS OF COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE OVRNGT LOWS OF MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE XPCTD. OF COURSE...IN THE VCNTY OF
RVRS...EVAPORATED MOISTURE WILL CONDENSE ON CONTACT WITH THE COLD
AIR RESULTING IN PATCHY RVR VLY FOG LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

DESPITE A VERY CHILLY START...UNDER BRILLIANT BLUE AND SUNSHINE
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A FULL 30 DEG DOWNEAST AND 40 DEG OVR
NRN VLY LCTNS TO AFTN HI TEMPS IN THE 60S. WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
NEAR CALM UNDER THE SFC HI ERLY IN THE MORN...WILL BECOME LGT SW
IN THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FOR MAINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
TRACK NORTH TO AROUND CAPE COD BY THURS EVNG...THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF MAINE WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST. A COOL MORNING THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AROUND
30 IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. TEMPS WILL MODIFYING A BIT BY
FRIDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP
PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE
4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR
GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MAINE
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY MORNING A LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOW THE
LOW OVER NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NRN MAINE. BY MON MRNG THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH TO
AROUND HOULTON...THE GFS AND GEM KEEP IT ACROSS NRN MAINE. MON
EVNG BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH TO COASTAL
MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD WITH CLRG SKIES...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF
MVFR CLGS LATE THIS AFTN OVR NRN MOST TAF SITES WITH SC ALG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT WERE FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXCEPT...EARLY MORNING FOG
PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF BODIES OF WATER. ANY MORNING FOG
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ATTM...WITH WV HTS
XPCTD TO CONT TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVRNGT WITH AN OFFSHORE WNW FETCH
AND LESSER SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE OPEN ATLC. WIND GUSTS WILL
CONT TO BE NEAR SCA STRENGTH ATTMS OVRNGT...BUT NOT ENOUGH GUSTS
TO RE-ISSUE AN SCA ATTM. EVEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON WED AS THE
CAN SFC HI CRESTS THE REGION. FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM IS
CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ016-017.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT






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