Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301443
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial
Day. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for
midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region
from the Great Lakes by late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak cold front pushing towards the region from eastern Ohio late
this morning. Clouds have pushed east of the Susq River Valley
with nice heating taking place across all of central Pa. Nudged
highs upward as a result.

Still no precip showing up along the approaching boundary...but
with weak CIN and weak lift...do expected at least isolated
coverage of showers and storms beginning by noontime and
propogating southeastward across central PA through the mid to
late afternoon hours. Relatively modest CAPE and wind shear
profiles point toward a limited risk of svr wx. Slightly stronger
mid lvl flow indicated across northeast Pa, where SPC conts to
paint a marginal svr wx risk late today.

ighs should range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Any lingering evening shra/tsra across eastern Pa should diminish
by late tonight, as weak cold front slowly pushes thru. Clearing
skies, light wind and wet ground in spots will likely lead to
patchy fog late tonight.

Ridging at sfc and aloft build into central Pa Tuesday, bringing
fair and warm wx. Mdl soundings support msunny skies and high
temps from the u70s ovr the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s ovr the
Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All med range guidance still indicating fair/warm wx Wednesday, as
upper lvl ridge crests ovr the region. Low lvl flow expected to
turn to the east, likely resulting in a slightly cooler day across
the eastern half of the state.

Not much spread noted in med range guidance thru late week, with
bulk of solutions tracking upper low north of Pa, as slow-moving
sfc cold front works into Central Pa either late Thu or Friday.
Highest (chc) Pops in the extended fcst will coincide with passage
of this cold front. However, both ECENS and NAEFS indicating a
deepening upper trof across the Grt Lks/Ohio Vall next weekend,
which would likely mean cooler and potentially showery wx for Pa.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial
Day. A ridge of high pressure will build in for midweek.

VFR conds will prevail mid to late morning before a line of isold
to sct shra/tsra and mvfr cigs tracks across central PA. This
will provide the potential for brief local reductions, followed
by high pressure and more settled weather building into the region
through midweek /with early morning patchy fog/.


OUTLOOK...

Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.

Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss
west.

Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
restrictions poss.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR


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