Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281143
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
743 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM IS NEAR ELMIRA NY AS OF 4AM...AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. BREEZY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION ON A GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM.

THE LAST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARE JUST MOVING OUT OF MY EASTERN ZONES. THE BIGGEST
SHORT TERM WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN
LINGERS/REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HOW EXTENSIVE
WILL THE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BE UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
LOW/TROUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALL SHOW PRECIP
WRAPPING BACK INTO NWRN/NRN AREAS AND LINGERING AT LEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
WHICH SHOWS A SHIELD OF RAIN PIVOTING AND TAKING AIM AT NWRN PA.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE PRECIP NORTH TODAY...HINTING
THAT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE STEADY RAIN OVER MY NORTHERN
TIER.

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW WILL HELP SUPPORT A GUSTY AND COOL NW
FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ORIGINAL THINKING WAS THAT WITH SUCH
COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD GROW
UP TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT I DOWNPLAYED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES WHICH NO DOUBT REFLECT MODEL
EXPECTATIONS OF AMPLE CLOUDCOVER. IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A LATE
JULY DAY WITH A GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND EVEN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN
THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO
ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART.

NOT TO BELABOR THE POINT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER
TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING
MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE TODAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY ON...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS TODAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
HEIGHTS RISE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT STILL SOME
CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED.

WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN


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