Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 281206
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
706 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT COATING...TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SAT...PRECEDED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING STRATOCU AND -SHSN PRESENT ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...AND THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

MESO OB SITES SHOW NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WELL
BELOW ZERO /AT -6 TO -11F/ WITH NEARLY CALM AIR...WHILE THE RIDGE
TOPS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENN ARE SEEING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. ELSEWHERE...READINGS RANGED FROM ABOUT 10-17F
WITH A 5-10 KT WEST TO NW WIND.

A VERY LIGHT BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A SPECKLING OF APPARENT TEMPS AS
LOW AS -14 TO -16F. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW
APPARENT TEMPS IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. VERTICAL MIXING UP TO JUST 2 KFT AGL WILL LEAD
TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 8-13KT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM.

DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BLW SEASONAL
NORMS...IN PART DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER. GEFS MEAN 925TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. A RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING. SOUTH-SSERLY SFC FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STG SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY POTENT
CLIPPER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE WRN GLAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING AND THICKENING TO AN ALTO-NIMBOSTRATUS
DECK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

ANY LIGHT SNOW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME NW...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF NON-
ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG...SEVERAL TO 8 HOUR SHOT OF WAA ALOFT AND MODERATELY STG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 300 MB JET MAX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT /TO BRIEFLY MDT SNOW/ FOCUSED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW PART OF THE STATE WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY STILL NOT LOOKING TOO BAD.

FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH DECENT/RELATIVELY STG
DYNAMICS AND WAA SHOULD SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WENT WITH SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME MIX COULD TRY TO WORK INTO
THE AREA...BUT THINK SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO GET MUCH DEEP
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUITE QUICKLY...AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. DID LOWER
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE SW FROM
KFIG-KJST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...BUT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
OUT AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NW
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE SUSTAINED NWRLY
WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST INTO
MID AFTN.

ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSS TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR TO START...WITH RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING MIDDAY.

THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...VFR.

SUN...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE SW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



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