Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 292344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE VERY WARM MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND ARE PETERING OUT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
POPS INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ
SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY
HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.

BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE


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