Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KCTP 231421

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1021 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Conditions will improve today as a large storm lifts northward
into eastern Canada and temperatures moderate over the
commonwealth. A cold front will pass through tonight and Monday
bringing a chance of showers to the north and a reinforcing shot
of cold air that will last through mid week.


Just a couple of sradar echoes over the north, but doubt that much
is reaching the ground and will keep fcst dry. Downslope and sun
over the SE half is allowing temps to rise nicely. Just a deg/two
were added to maxes based on this trend. Wind still up in the E
and higher elevs of the S, but a little lighter than recently in
the NW. Enjoy the win....I mean...the wx.

Light lake effect shower activity has ended for now..but sct-bkn
stratus is common across central and western portions. This too
will diminish as the morning wears on as the coss lake flow lifts
to the north and weakens. should be dry for the
rest of the day. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for
most with temps 10-15F higher than Saturday. Despite relaxing
pressure gradients...still expect breezy west winds through this


Quick moving frontal system reaches the northwest mountains
after midnight tonight...spreading a swatch of showers across the
northern tier...mainly north of Interstate 80 from 03z through 12z
Monday morning. Cooler air will spill southward again across the
eastern lakes and into PA...with another 12-18 hour stretch
similar to Sat aftn for central and western PA expected through
Monday evening.

Mins tonight will be in the 40s. Highs Monday will be reached in
the morning across the northwest...where post frontal cooling will
occur for most of the day. Highs farther south will range from the
50s to the lower 60s across the rest of central and south central


High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into
Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an
end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be
quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that
will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in
from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the
area on Thu.

Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next
weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potentially another
quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling
it out for synoptic features by Sunday.


Gusty northwesterly flow will continue today. Currently MVFR cigs
at JST, UNV and BFD. Due to this flow there is a chance for lake
effect rain showers, mainly through the northwest this morning.  Otherwise
after 15Z VFR will dominate during the daytime. A trough
approaching Sunday evening could bring showers across the northern
half of PA which could bring MVFR cigs and vbsys at BFD, UNV, IPT
and JST through the first half of Sunday night. By Monday morning
it should spread to all TAF sites.


Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere.

Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible early.

Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.

Thu...Widespread showers.




NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
LONG TERM...DeVoir/RXR/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.