Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 161955
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...
SUPPLYING US WITH ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING HIGH BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EASTER
WEEKEND...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PATCHY THIN CIRRUS IS ALL THAT REMAINS IN THE CLOUD DEPARTMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE ICE-COVERED WATERS OF
EASTERN LAKE ERIE.

NORTHERLY COLD ADVECTION IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER ALL DAY HAS
COMPENSATED FOR THE FEW KFT AGL OF MIXING /AND THE RATHER STRONG
MID APRIL SUN/ TO CREATE ALMOST UNHEARD OF...COLD AFTERNOON TEMPS
FOR THIS DATE - UNDER NEARLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS.

LATE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO U30S ACROSS
THE NRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND U40S IN THE SOUTH.

CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND WILL COVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT RECORD MINS. TEMPS WILL
SETTLE TO NEAR...OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW RECORD LOWS /SEE CLIMO
SECTION BELOW FOR ALL OF THE DETAILS/.

A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY REGION
FROM MIDNIGHT - 8 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...LLVL SERLY FLOW BENEATH DEEP SOUTH
TO SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TEMPS TO RECOVER TO MORE BEARABLE
LEVELS FOR MID APRIL...BUT STILL 5-7F SHY OF NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

SOME SCATTERED PANCAKE CU IS LIKELY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
PERIODS OF CIRRUS OR HIGH ALTO CU.

AFTER A FROSTY MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WIND...THE WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SE TO 8-12 KTS...AND GUST INTO THE 15-19KT
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON /WHICH WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE/.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
SERN/SCENTRAL ZONES. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE SFC PRES RIDGING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT BLYR MIXING AND - WHEN
FACTORING IN THE ESE WINDS - WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THU/FRI.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRI NGT-SAT AM WITH THE BEST CHC FOR LGT/SCT
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON THIS IDEA...WITH PREVIOUS TIMING DIFFS MOSTLY RESOLVED.

LOOKING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHILE FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN
PATTERN IS AVG AT BEST THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A MAINLY DRY FCST SUN-
MON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IS
ASSOCD WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF
THE PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN-TIER CONUS ALONG WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL BUT RATHER EXPLICIT NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT IN THE
500MB FLOW BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LW PATTERN
IS FCST TO REAMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS/SPRING CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVG 500MB
RIDGING SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY DELAY THE
HEIGHT RISES IN THE EAST AND SEND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
MID-ATLC AROUND DAY 8.

OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NOW APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED IN THE FRI NGT
SATURDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAMES. SO MOST OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NE FROM LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY AND REACH
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON THURSDAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR AND DIMINISHING /OR ALREADY LIGHT/ WIND WILL
OCCUR LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20 KT RANGE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT.

OUTLOOK...
.FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN PENN
EARLY FRIDAY.
.SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
.SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOOKS LIKE BRADFORD HAS A NEW RECORD MIN FOR THE 16TH ALREADY -
AND ALSO CAME CLOSE FOR THE 15TH AS WELL - JUST A DEGREE OFF TYING
THE RECORD FOR TAX DAY. BUT THE SHORT PERIOD OF RECORD AT BFD
AIRPORT /SINCE 1957/ MAKES IT A LITTLE EASIER TO CRACK MANY OF THE
RECORDS THERE. KJST AND KAOO HAVE ALSO ATTAINED/TIED THEIR
RESPECTIVE RECORD MINS FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING - WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD
LOWS. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR APRIL 17TH FROM AROUND
THE AREA.

AOO... THURSDAY 23/1980/
BFD... THURSDAY 16/1963/
JST... THURSDAY 21/1966/
IPT... THURSDAY 25/1904/
MDT... THURSDAY 29/1980 AND 1904/

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
PAZ057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
CLIMATE...COLBERT/LAMBERT



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