Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN WORKING INTO THE AREA STEADILY THIS EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO EXIST PRIMARILY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
EAST TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. THE NAM AND SREF MODELS ARE BOTH A LITTLE ON THE
DRY SIDE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE WETTER. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS AND ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH NEXT UPDATE IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. THERE ARE NOT
MANY HAZARDS TO WORRY ABOUT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...AND A PIECE OF CIRCULATION WILL SPLIT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS. CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH PAST THE MID 50S. ON
WEDNESDAY...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST (WITH THE
EASTERN FA MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE DAY). MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN FA TO
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A
WARMER AIRMASS BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THE FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD
WILL START OUT DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE STILL OVER THE FA. COLD
FRONT IS POISED JUST TO THE NW OF THE FA AND SHOULD SLIDE INTO
NORTHERN AREAS SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH SAT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO
SAT NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RIDGING RETURNS
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MILD TEMPS. NEXT BOUNDARY APPROACHES
MON NIGHT INTO TUE SPREADING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE TERMINALS IS THE EXTENT AND DURATION
OF LOW CLOUDS. THE LATEST CIGS AT HARVEY AND CARRINGTON HAVE COME
IN AT 1400 FT. BELIEVE CIGS AT DVL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO
THIS RANGE AS WELL. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT BJI LATER
TONIGHT WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. BOTH MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE ARE RATHER LOW WITH CIGS TONIGHT...AS ARE BUFR SOUNDINGS.
WITH SEEING LOWER CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD ALSO...HAVE
TRENDED LOWER AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES AS A RESULT. CLOUDS DECKS
SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY IN THE WEST AND LATE IN THE DAY IN THE EAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG








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