Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 051344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

944 AM...COOL DAMP DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. WARMEST AND DRIEST WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
UPPER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
INGESTED THE CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF
UPDATE...OTHERWISE NIL OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DZ WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CLOUDS AS THE DAY
WARMS UP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/WV TROF AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS HOUR. AS IT DOES SO...RNFL IS MOVING EWD INTO
DOWNEAST ME. HAVE CUT POP BACK FROM W TO E IN LINE WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP. SOME WEAK LIFT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO
SOME DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NH THIS MORNING.

BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BUT NE FLOW
CONTINUES...AND THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
COOL AND CLOUDY. WELL INLAND...ACROSS NRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND
NEAR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER E
WITH THE SFC LOW...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND KICKS IT OUT TO SEA. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL
SKIRT COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE CUT BACK POP FARTHER NW THOUGH WITH LATEST TRENDS.

BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW PRES...S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO TRY AND
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRI ON
THE DRIER SIDE. COOLER NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WILL BE
WEAKER...AND BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
DURING THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. UPPER LOW WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI AND SWING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO OR INTO SWRN NH
ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND OFF SHORE
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP INTO CUT OFF LOWS, THE EASTERN ONE SITTING OVER DELMARVA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNDER
A GENERALLY COOL AND WET REGIME. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS
CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH CUT OFF LOWS,
HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING, AND PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD
THAT IS THREE STRIKES AGAINST THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED AND WILL THUS HEDGE TOWARDS THE STATUS QUO OF COOL AND
WET FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARDS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON SUNDAY A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

MOVING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING COULD MOVE IN
MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO
MOVE OUT IN TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR NEAR THE COAST...WITH MVFR INLAND...AS
RNFL MOVES INTO DOWNEAST ME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR IS STILL LIKELY IN
COOL...MOIST...NE FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF RA WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
COAST TONIGHT...WITH PWM...AUG...AND RKD MOST LIKELY TO SEE STEADY
PCPN. SFC GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. A LITTLE STRONGER LOW PRES
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI.

LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SEAS
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE SCA ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND
IT COOL...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL
AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FORECAST SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FORT POINT AND SEACOAST NH
MOST LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO REVIEW 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON
POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS
WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
ES



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