Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 101346
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
946 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...CURRENT FCST ON TRACK. WILL JUST ADJUST TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.


PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY
DRIVING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S SOUTH, A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE WILL DROP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE A CLEAR
AND CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S IN THE NORTH
AND 50S IN THE SOUTH. MORE SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NGT SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY
GIVING US FAIR WX. A WARM FNT APPROACHES FROM THE SW SATURDAY NGT
BRINGING WARMER...MORE HUMID AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH IT. AN
UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE TROF ALSO MOVES NE IN THE W SW FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING SATURDAY NGT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE CHC FOR SHRA/TSTMS ARRIVING SATURDAY NGT.

THE UPPER LVL TROF MOVES BY TO THE NE FOR SUNDAY BUT THE VERY WARM,
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN A CHC OF
SHRA/TSTMS CONTINUING.

ANOTHER UPPER LVL TROF MOVES THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVE
WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS MORE SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE VERY WARM,
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. YET ANOTHER, THOUGH WEAKER, UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVES IN FROM THE SW TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVE AS IT
PINWHEELS AROUND AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW LOCATED IN CANADA N OF THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE E. THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES A SFC COLD FNT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE W. AGAIN WILL HELP
FOCUS SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED BY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. WITH THE UPPER LVL FLOW REMAINING SW
ON WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE FNT SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE ENOUGH WARM,
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MAY BE LEFT OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSTMS.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY NGT
THRU SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NGT THRU MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LVL IMPULSES HELPING TO FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE S SW FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SEA
BREEZE CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE ENOUGH TO
CREATE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THRU MONDAY. THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH SEAS TO THE 5 FT SCA
THRESHOLD OVER THE OPEN WATERS MONDAY NGT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
TFH





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.