Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 250808
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
408 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure from the Ohio Valley through the
mid Atlantic coast will slowly lift northeast today through
tonight...reaching Cape Cod by Friday morning. Low pressure will
continue northeast into the maritimes Friday through Friday
night. Weak high pressure will build over the area on Saturday
and will shift offshore on Sunday. Weak low pressure over the
eastern Great Lakes will lift north into western Quebec Sunday
night and will drive a cold front toward the region on Monday.
The front will slowly cross the area Late Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad area of low pressure from the Ohio Valley through the mid
Atlantic states will lift a warm front northward today. HRRR
generally in line with latest radar composite and brings precip
into southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine by late morning
to early afternoon. This preliminary batch of precip will
continue north through the afternoon hours. Only looking for
light QPF through this evening with amounts of a quarter inch or
less. Onshore flow will quickly pick up this morning with
easterly winds becoming gusty by afternoon. High temperatures
will only make the mid to upper 50s in coastal and southern
interior sections. Farther north...highs will edge into the
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Just looking for showery precip this evening with some
additional light accumulations. Strong vort lobe rotating
around upper trough back over the Ohio valley will swing north
toward the region after midnight and will bring a shot of
moderate to occasionally heavy rain back into the region during
the early morning hours and through the day on Friday. Expect
rain to taper to showers by Friday evening. Most of the forecast
area will see an inch to an inch and a half with locally 2
inches in coastal areas. Long duration of this event should
preclude any flooding issues but poor drainage areas may see
some brief issues in heavier rainfall Friday. Expect
temperatures to show little change Thursday night and Friday
with lows Thursday night in the near 50 and Highs on Friday in
the 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Trof will be lifting out Fri night into Sat. Lingering low level
moisture should keep clouds and possibly fog around overnight.
Clouds will gradually clear out later Sat though as weak s/wv
ridging moves across the region. That brief ridge will depart
Sun...allowing the next s/wv trof to drive a warm front Nwd thru
the Northeast. Models remain consistent with low pressure
forming well out to sea along the triple point...which may spare
the region another widespread moderate rainfall event. However
upper trofing is forecast to remain persistent for the remainder
of the work week. Lower heights and cyclonic flow will favor
afternoon increases in clouds and chances for showers. Temps
will more or less be near normals.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings developing today and persisting
through Friday.

Long Term...Lingering low level moisture may keep some MVFR CIGs
around Fri night. Daytime heating into Sat should allow any
remaining MVFR conditions to lift. Weak ridging should hold thru
Sun...allowing for VFR conditions. The next s/wv trof arrives
Mon...and scattered MVFR conditions in SHRA or maybe even a
TSRA return.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing SCA`s through Friday morning.

Long Term...Winds and seas gradually diminish as weak high
pressure moves over the waters. Developing Sly flow over the
waters by Mon may bring some 5 ft seas outside of the bays.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Highest astronomical tides of the year on tap for tonight and
Friday night. Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for all
coastal zones for around the time of high tide tonight.

Forecast tide will reach 12 feet in Portland and with a storm
surge of .3 to .5 feet will likely see splash-over and flooding
of the usual spots around the time of high tide around 1230 am
tonight.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for MEZ023>028.
NH...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

Sinsabaugh/Legro



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