Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 120038
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
738 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY
SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOOKED LIKE A MINI-
NORLUN TROUGH THAT FOCUSED THAT BAND OF SNOWFALL. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OVERNIGHT.

ALSO...A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 30 BELOW OR LOWER...WITH SOME BUFFER GIVEN TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE IT MAY COME CLOSE.

525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT
IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND
FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR
FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

PREVIOUSLY...

COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE
EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN
THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT
FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN
NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH
MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU
NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY
OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST
AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE
MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20
TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL
AREAS.

COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONCE SHSN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT HIS
TIME THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STICKING WITH GALES IN THE WATERS S OF CASCO BAY
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS AROUND 5-6
PM AND WILL SEE A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA
LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD BLOWING SPRAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING
SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ001>005-007-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH
AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS
MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS


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