Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 251055
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
555 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE
ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE
BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE
RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO
CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO
BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT
INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL
KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND
WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO
CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT
AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING
AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME
WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND
CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD
ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994.

ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND
42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
ES


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