Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 222322
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW OVER SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
ONLY AFFECTING LBX AND GLS AT THIS POINT. DID HAVE THUNDERSTORM
OVER EAST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND AN HOUR OR SO AGO THAT PUSHED AN
OUTLFOW THROUGH GLS OF 33 KNOTS. OUTFLOWS HAVE MADE IT TOUGH FOR
SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND THESE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF GLS
AND LBX WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AFTER THAT...WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND NO MORE THAN SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/TSTMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG & SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY BACKDOORING INTO THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT
STORM ENHANCEMENT AS THEY NEAR THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY WHERE A
WEAK SEA & BAYBREEZE IS SITUATED. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN.

BEING ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM EXPECT
SEVERAL DAYS OF PLEASANT WX ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERSISTENT LLVL
ENE FLOW IN PLACE. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS RETURN DURING
THE 2ND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AS SOME LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN
FROM THE E AND A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR W DRAWS IN FROM
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW. DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO
RAIN CHANCES THERE...ESP LATE THUR-SAT AS W/ COASTAL TROF IN THE
VICINITY. GFS IS MUCH WETTER INLAND THIS WEEKEND (WHICH IS SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON FCST-WISE) BUT STILL PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF
WHICH SHIFTS PRECIP/MOISTURE EAST ALONG W/ THE WEAKNESS & COASTAL
TROF PROGRESSION. 47

MARINE...
AN DECENT EASTERLY FETCH WILL SET UP LATE THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION
OF EASTERLY WINDS AND ESPECIALLY HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW
MOON COULD LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE BY THURSDAY OR SO. SWELLS OVER THE GULF MAY ALSO LEAD TO
CAUTION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AS WELL. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  86  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  87  62  86  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  85  74  85  75 /  30   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
     THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99



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