Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 292013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 106 ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS
BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA COUNTIES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR THE
SEABREEZE. WILL HAVE A 20 POP FOR CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHC OF RAIN ON THU AND FRI ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SE TX. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO N/NE AREAS THU AFT/EVE THEN LIKELY STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS FRI/FRI NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRI
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE AREAS
BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS REALLY DRY OUT.

ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PD...THEY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRI WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND THEN WARMER ON SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PEAK GENERALLY IN THE 100-107
DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS NEXT
WEEK...THEY BOTH WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE OVER SE
TEXAS...WE WILL SEE. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHCS SHOWING UP
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. 33

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  78  98  76 /  10  10  20  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  99  78  98  76 /  20  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  82  92  81 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33


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