Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 060535
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP...UPGLIDE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AT 66R
AND NEARING IWS/SGR AT 0530Z. LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH CLL AROUND 08Z AND IAH/HOU 10-11Z
ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCUR TO SPEED OF THE FRONT. S/W
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE SHOULD SWING THESE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA BY 11Z CLL AND 15Z OR SO AT GLS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA FROM AROUND ACT TO UTS AT 15Z THIS WILL
IN TURN LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION AND SHOULD GET GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR CLL-IAH/HOU-SGR-LBX-GLS WITH STRONGER WINDS
CLOSER TO THE LLJ CORE ACROSS GYB-PSX. CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD LOWER
AS PRECIP/VIRGA TRAVERSE THE AREA THEN WITH THE SHOWERS BUT
SHOULDN`T GO BELOW 3000 FT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS LATE MORNING
BUT WRAP AROUND WILL LIKELY COVER MOST SITES WITH SCT-BKN035-040.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE GOING FCST ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS MOVE IN FROM THE WSW THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL BE UN-
TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE WE SEE ANYTHING REACH THE SFC. WX GRIDS
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. SURFACE RIDGE STILL NOSED IN ALONG THE COAST WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS INCREASING AS MOISTURE RIDES UP THE 290K
SURFACE. EXPECT THE DECK TO EXPAND FROM AROUND ARM-PSX
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EVENING HOURS. NM/W TX S/W LOOKS LIKE IT
IS ON TRACK OR JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SHOULD ADD MORE LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 08Z AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHRA TO
DEVELOP NEAR CLL AND FILL IN TO THE SW AS TROUGH SWINGS EAST. RAIN
SHOULD END BY 12-15Z FIRST IN THE NW AND LATER NEAR THE COAST.
HAVE ADDED VCTS TO GLS TAF AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS SURFACE LOW CONGEALS OUT
OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND TRACKS EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF GLS.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE SEEING A
RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
SEEING SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
COMES LATE TONIGHT AND ON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WORKS ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AND ON INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
RAINS TO END IN A NOON TO 3 PM TIME PERIOD ON SATURDAY. OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WESTERN
U.S. RIDGING AND EASTERN U.S. TROFFING BEGINS TO SET UP. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
MAKE MONDAY KIND OF BREEZY OUT THERE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO WARM UP MUCH PAST THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WARMING OVERNIGHT LOWS AND MUCH
WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS (IN THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY) AS WEST
TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  59  36  64  38 /  40  20   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  61  37  65  41 /  40  40   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  46  62  47 /  30  40   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY
     THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



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