Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 011021
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN TWEAKS TO THE FCST PACKAGE WERE TO THE 1ST PERIOD...MAINLY
BUMPING UP TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS SOME. LLVL FLOW HAS BEEN
VEERING TO THE SW/W AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SHIFT
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. IN ADDITION...APPEARS WE`LL
SEE A PREFRONTAL TROF ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL MOISTURE POOLING & SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A TOUCH TODAY. STILL THINK MANY AREAS
WILL SEE SOME RAIN BETWEEN NOON (NORTH) AND 7PM (COAST)...BUT THINK
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A THIN,
FAST SWD MOVING BAND OF SHRA & MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT TOTALS. MAY
SEE A VERY LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2" SHOULD AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT AREAWIDE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP ON TEMPS AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
WARM-UP CONSIDERING THE MILD START TO THE DAY AND SW/W LLVL WINDS.

FRONT ITSELF WILL PUSH THRU THIS EVENING BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

NEXT FCST CONCERN IS THE EVENTUAL TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER BAJA
LOW AS IT KICKS OUT AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF DURING THE
LATE TUE THRU LATE WED TIME PERIOD. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE
BACK TO FAVORING THE FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE COASTAL TROF
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES/TOTAL CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME RUN-TO-RUN
WAFFLING FOR A WHILE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES PASS TO THE EAST (PROBABLY ON THURS) A COLD
FRONT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. A QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY W/ SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF.
MAYBE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SE WINDS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. A WICKED TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE AREA (LIKELY IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT/PCPN)
LOOKS TO BE THE CAUSE. THIS GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME
THIS AFTN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE PROGGED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT-
ING THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE BAYS AROUND SUNSET AND THEN INTO NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER NORTH/
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL OVERNIGHT (EARLY MON
MORNING) HRS. AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE MOVING A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST OF US SO THE THERMAL
GRADIENT MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT HERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS SUCH
WILL NOT BE UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH WITH THIS FCST...BUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNSWING BY TUES MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODELS STILL POINTING TO WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORN FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE DEALING WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NRN SITES THIS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE. GENER-
ALLY VFR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. AS THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVES ON
OUT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING LOW/NO POPS FOR THIS AFTN FOR
MOST OF SE TX AND ONLY A THIN BAND OF PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT IT-
SELF. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT FROPA TIMING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  36  49  35  53 /  40   0   0   0  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  40  51  36  51 /  40  10   0   0  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  43  49  44  51 /  30  40   0   0  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



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