Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 231724 AAD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

For 18Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 939 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Another dry day is in store across the TN Valley, as the forecast
area remains under the influence of the upper ridge and surface high.
The center of the surface high will move to our south through the
day, with winds becoming southerly by the late morning hours. Because
of the weak warm air advection, temperatures are expected to be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Temps were lowered by a degree or two, given the colder start to the
morning and the relatively weak flow expected through the day.
Otherwise, no major changes were made.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The quiet and dry wx pattern will continue thru this period as high
pressure dominates the area. There will also be a slight warming
trend during this period with mrng lows in the mid/upper 40s and aftn
highs arnd 80 degrees. By Tuesday night the ridge will begin to
weaken as an upper trof/cdfnt begins to approach the TN valley from
the midwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 130 AM
CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The start of the long term features the upper ridge breaking down
over the southeast with a trough developing near the upper midwest.
Clouds will be on the increase from the west through the day which
will keep temps slightly cooler than Tuesday, into the middle to
upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s.

ECMWF and GFS are in much better agreement tonight than last night
in terms of the placement of the surface low that will impact the
region on Thursday. Both now show the surface high anchored over the
northeast which will help quickly lift the surface low northeast
along it and the upper trough by Thursday afternoon. The majority of
the lift and moisture will stay well to the north of the area. The
models and the blended POP values are showing lower POP`s for Wed
night-Thu, just barely chance pops and that`s only for areas to the
east. As well, instability is much lower and will therefore continue
to leave the mention of thunder out of the forecast. Overall, it
doesn`t look like much of a rain producer areawide and we may only
see scattered light to moderate rain showers with the frontal
passage. With the rain and continued clouds, highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s and lows in the lower 50s.

The front should move through after midnight Thursday night with the
only change in sensible weather being a wind shift from the northwest
and slightly lower dew points.

Ridging, surface high pressure and a drier atmosphere return on
Friday. Highs Fri-Sun will gradually warm from the lower to middle
70s to around 80 on Sunday. The same trend occurs with lows, from
the lower 50s to middle 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at the KMSL and
KHSV terminals. Winds will generally remain from the WSW between 5
and 10 kts this afternoon and then become light and variable





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