Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 021915
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY SHOULD END UP AS A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THAN LABOR DAY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OF 19Z. ANOTHER PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. BOTH OF THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE
THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT BY AROUND 02Z THAT THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
COME TO AN END.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DISSIPATING THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY. THE OLD BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO REMAIN AT NEARLY
1.75 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY SATURDAY. AN ADJOINING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY AND INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 00Z SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...AS THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH PUSH THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE IN
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST TO END THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD TEMPORARILY DROP CIGS
AND/OR VIS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED
MORNING.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  92  70  94 /  30  40  20  30
SHOALS        71  93  71  95 /  40  40  20  30
VINEMONT      70  92  71  94 /  30  40  20  30
FAYETTEVILLE  68  90  69  92 /  40  40  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   70  90  70  92 /  30  40  20  30
FORT PAYNE    69  91  69  93 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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