Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 081141
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 306 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH TWO CDFNTS HEADING OUR
WAY. THE FIRST CDFNT EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN MS ATTM...WHILE THE SECOND
CDFNT (WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT) IS NOW OVER NRN MO.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SPIN SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME WINTER WX BEGINNING TODAY THRU TUESDAY
AFTN.

FOR TODAY THE FIRST CDFNT WILL PASS THRU THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS BY THE AFTN FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S THIS AFTN...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AS SHOWN BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE
PROBLEM IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR SNOW AND THE AREAL COVERAGE.
MODELS SHOW SCT SNOW POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE BEST CHC OVER NE AL AND PORTIONS OF SRN MID TN. THE BEST TIMING OF
SNOW IS ALSO A LITTLE TRICKY BUT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z TONIGHT
THRU TUESDAY EVENING. ATTM NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ANYWHERE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ARND ONE INCH OF SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER SRN MID TN AND EXTREME NERN AL BY TUESDAY AFTN.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HALF OF AN
INCH OR LESS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ATTM BUT WILL
ISSUE A SPS LATER THIS MRNG. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER WX STATEMENTS OR
UPGRADES.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY TAKING THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW THRU THIS
TIMEFRAME. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE LITTLE OR NO PCPN WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. THERE COULD BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT ON FRIDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED ATTM AND IT IS ALSO SO FAR OUT IN THE
FCST THAT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OUT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE NEXT BAND
OF CLOUDS APPROACH. WINDS WILL GUST 15-20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND FALL TO
AROUND 3KFT AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...MIXING
WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS BUT THE TERMINALS
COULD SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW ANY TIME AFTER 00Z. CANNOT PINPOINT
THE TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS SO WILL KEEP -SHSN IN THE PREVAILING
GROUP FROM 00-12Z AT THIS TIME. LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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