Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 302357
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
757 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow
to leave the area even as the actual system does by Wednesday. The
weather may then turn even more unsettled by Friday and into the
weekend as a cold front drops into the area and stalls.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM Monday...Inland shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity is weakening this evening due to the loss of heating.
This trend will continue through the evening with high resolution
guidance showing all showers dissipating before midnight. However,
along the coast precip chances will remain elevated overnight with
the best chances in coastal NC. Marine convection developing over
the Gulf Stream will continue to rotate onshore ahead of the
barely moving remnant Bonnie circulation. The tropical nature of
the air mass combined with slow moving storms training over the
same areas could result in some brief minor flooding across
portions of coastal NC tonight. Abundant moisture and cloud cover
will keep lows several degrees above climo with most areas in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Bonnie`s remnant low will only slowly move
northeastward, reaching Cape Fear Tuesday afternoon and moving east
of the New Hanover County beaches Tuesday night. Good convective
instability on the order of 1000-1500 j/kg Tuesday and convergence
provided by the low should help develop more showers and t-storms,
especially across SE North Carolina. Forecast PoPs range from 50
percent along I-95 to 70 percent near Wilmington. Cell movement will
be very slow near the low and the potential for isolated flooding
cannot be ruled out.

By Wednesday the low should be up near the NC Crystal Coast,
shifting the greatest concentration of showers and storms north of
our forecast area. A very humid airmass will linger behind the low,
and as temperatures rise into the mid 80s inland a seabreeze should
develop which will act as a focus for new convection. Forecast PoPs
Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-60 percent along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Remnant low pressure from Bonnie finally
lifting north and tracking up toward Hatteras on Thursday. This
will leave a W-NW flow of deeper drier air making its way into the
area on the back end. Pcp water values will essentially drop down
to around 1.5 inches by Thurs aftn. Still a warm and humid summer
time air mass in place with plenty of low level moisture
remaining. A good deal of upper level subsidence should keep shwr
activity limited but can not rule out some localized spotty
convection.

By late Thurs into Friday a moist southerly return flow will set
up at the surface while winds above the surface maintain more of a
westerly flow. Will see an increase in overall moisture through
the column while a northern stream shortwave begins to push a cold
front south toward the Carolinas. For the most part, expect
continued warm and humid weather with localized shwr activity
becoming more widespread later in the day, especially inland. May
see some stronger convection well inland, making its way into
local forecast area late day as front gets pushed a little closer.

By Saturday, expect increased thunderstorm activity and a much
more active day overall as front reaches the area with better
upper level support. The GFS brings front down early Saturday and
then it may linger through the weekend before main h5 trough digs
southward finally pushing the front off shore by Monday. The ECMWF
is slower with the departure of the front and therefore keeps more
active weather for Monday as well. For now will probably show a
clearing trend through the day on Monday...with weak high
pressure returning.

Temps will run well into the 80s most days with a warm and humid summer
time air mass in place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Expect remnants of Bonnie to continue creating varying
flight restrictions through the valid TAF period as low cigs,
areas of fog, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue.

Latest radar imagery depicts scattered showers moving onshore and
across the area as the remnants of Bonnie continue to affect the
area. Along with isolated heavy downpours, low cigs and brief
patches of fog are expected through the overnight hours. As a
result, anticipate a mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR. Wind direction will
be variable with winds around 5 kts. On Tuesday, expect periods of
improvement to flight restrictions as the area will see breaks in
the clouds. However, daytime heating will allow increasing chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with
MVFR/IFR possible. Northeast winds around 5 kts in the morning
will become east-southeast in the afternoon, increasing up to
around 10 kts.

Extended Outlook...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected
through Thursday as a tropical airmass remains in place. MVFR/IFR
conditions possible. Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 730 PM Monday...Weak nature of the surface gradient, given
the proximity to the crawling remnants of Bonnie, will keep winds
10 kt or less overnight. Direction will gradually veer from
southeast to south as the low creeps northeast overnight. Southern
portions of the waters may see some west or even northwest winds
before the end of the period, but speeds will remain under 10 kt.
Seas continue dropping with 41013 now at 4 ft and 41108 at 3 ft.
Lack of any significant wind speeds or swell will maintain the
downward trend and seas will continue falling through the period.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Bonnie`s remnant low will move slowly
northeastward Tuesday, passing just offshore of Cape Fear during the
afternoon and moving east of Wrightsville Beach Tuesday night. By
Wednesday the low should be up in the Crystal Coast area and losing
its influence on the Cape Fear/Grand Strand area. Models all suggest
there will be no significant winds surrounding the low, 15 knots or
less, although wind directions will continue to be determined by the
low`s position through at least Tuesday night.

A very humid airmass lingering behind Bonnie should continue to
produce scattered showers & t-storms. These should be fairly
numerous Tuesday, especially near and north of Cape Fear, then will
focus more along the seabreeze boundary on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...As the remnant low from Bonnie finally
lifts farther north toward Hatteras on Thursday...a light off
shore flow will develop and then become more southerly through
Friday as cold front approaches from the N-NW. The off shore flow
will allow seas to drop a little further remaining below 3 ft
Thurs into Fri with a slow rising trend heading into the weekend
in minor southerly push ahead of approaching cold front. Winds
will basically remain S-SW less than 15 kts late Thurs into the
weekend with seas rising slightly Fri night into Sat but remaining
in the 2 to 4 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL


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