Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 030726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH
MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE
NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND
SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE
PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS
TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W
VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER
STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST-
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME
DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING
MECHANISM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN
500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE
VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS
SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO
LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO
RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL
STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/SRP



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