Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 110818
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
318 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal trough/warm front will push inland and north Sunday
night as high pressure moves farther off shore, producing a
warming trend. A cold front will drop into the area Monday
night and possible stall in the vicinity through Tuesday before
a stronger cold front moves through Wednesday night. As a
result, a chance of rain can be expected Sunday through
Wednesday with colder temperatures returning Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Temperatures at or below freezing early this
morning throughout the CWA and are in fact lower in many places than
they were at this time last night. An anticipated coastal trough is
slowly forming and seems to have arrested temperature falls along
the coast. Otherwise we are seeing nearly ideal radiational cooling
conditions.

The cold and dry Arctic high now centered over south-central
Virginia will shift offshore today as a cold front approaches from
the west and the aforementioned coastal trough further develops and
moves towards the west. Onshore flow and pre-frontal WAA will bring
a warming trend today, with temperatures rising back above normal by
tonight. Precip chances and cloud cover will gradually increase as
the front and coastal trough converge upon the forecast area. Best
chances for showers will be tonight along the coast. A consensus of
guidance gives us highs today in the 50s, with overnight lows
ranging from the low 40s well inland to the mid 50s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday....Maintaining chance pops through the
short term as a series of systems impinge upon the eastern
Carolinas. A cold front will merge with a coastal trough and
then move offshore on Monday afternoon. The front may waver just
offshore for the remainder of the short term as a series of
weak frontal waves traverse the boundry. This will make precip
timing tricky, but it seems clear that the best chances for rain
showers will persist closest to the coast. Well above-normal
temperatures on Monday will give way to more seasonable numbers
on Tuesday as a cold surge follows Mondays FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM Sunday...A very broad trough over the upper mid
west will move eastward pushing a cold front through Wed night
into early Thurs scouring out any lingering moisture as it
ushers in colder and drier air into the Carolinas. Pcp water
values up near 1.3 inches on Wed will drop to less than a
quarter of an inch on Thurs in deep NW flow as high pressure
builds in behind front. Temps up near 60 will drop back down
below normal with readings below 50 in most places Thurs and Fri
and overnight lows down in the 20s once again Fri and Sat
morning. By Sat aftn the high will shift off shore and a warmer
and moister return flow will push temps back up toward normal
and bring increasing clouds and chances of rain through the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...High pressure ridging into the area from the west will
move overhead tonight and off the coast Sunday. This will continue
SKC with nearly calm winds tonight. Despite a clear and calm night,
fog is not expected due to the very dry air in place, and VFR will
persist into the daytime hours Sunday. Very light easterly winds in
the morning will pick up slightly to near 5 to 10 kts as they veer
around through the day as high pressure moves off to the NE and
coastal trough develops. This will produce some lower clouds around,
mainly MVFR with some -RA possible Sun evening possibly lowering to
IFR ceilings and vsbys by very end of TAF period. Overall expect
STRATO CU or STRATUS around from Sun aftn onwards.

Extended Outlook...IFR Mon morning followed by VFR later on Mon.
Periods of MVFR/-RA Mon night through Wednesday with IFR most likely
during the morning hours. VFR Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...High pressure centered over south-central
Virginia this morning will move swiftly ENE today and tonight
over the Atlantic while during the daylight hours a coastal
trough strengthens as it moves slowly towards shore. This will
bring East winds of around 10 kts today with seas of 2 ft. A
tightening gradient in advance of the next frontal system will
bring increasing southerly winds with seas building to 3 to 5
ft. Exercise Caution headlines may be required for the overnight
period.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Chance of showers will persist through
the short term as a series of frontal systems impinge upon the
waters. As these systems will not be particularly strong, do not
expect any flags during this period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Weak low pressure will develop along
lingering front producing unsettled weather with variable winds
less than 15 kts. A strong cold front will push through Wed
night with a deep cold and dry NW flow through Thurs. The very
dry and cold air rushing over the relatively warmer waters will
keep marine layer well mixed with gusty NW to N winds up to 25
kts through Thurs into Fri. Seas 2 to 4 ft on Wed will increase
up to 3 to 5 ft Wed night into Thurs.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ



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