Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 221641
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1141 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE TODAY AND PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
INDIANA-OHIO STATE LINE BEFORE STALLING LATE TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST UPDATED RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND HAD GENERALLY
OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THIS NEXT UPDATE HAD A LITTLE
LESS CLOUD COVER - ESPECIALLY EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA AND THEREFORE
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT MORE. WAS GOING TO LOWER THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN OHIO THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT OPTED
TO KEEP THE LOW CHANCE THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST AS SOME MODELS
WERE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT
THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR PASSING SHOWER THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ONLY EXISTS OVER INDIANA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT THAT CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP OFF SOME IN
THE EVENING BUT THEN READINGS WILL BE STEADY OR RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THEN THE FORCING
BECOMES WEAK. SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A COMPLETE LULL IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. STAYED NEAR
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE INDIANA-OHIO LINE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
STALLING. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG IT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM WAS
AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY AT THIS
POINT. AS FORCING INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
LOW BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH A WIDE VARIETY
OF POSSIBILITIES OFFERED BY BOTH MODELS AND MOS. SEEMS MOST LIKELY
THAT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SET UP.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF SREF AND ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES WHICH
ENDS UP FALLING BETWEEN GFS MOS AND PARALLEL GFS MOS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RISE IN READINGS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PASSES AND
TEMPERATURES START FALLING OFF. SYSTEM GETS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW AND AS COLDER AIR GETS WRAPPED IN THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY MUCH ONCE THE CHANGE OVER TAKES PLACE PLUS THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL BE
BREEZY/BRISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A DAY. 00Z GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THUS
CONTINUED WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN
SUNDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP WILL START IN THE 0-6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. NAM MODEL IS NOTORIOUSLY DRY
AFTER AN INITIAL WAVE THIS EVENING.

WILL OPT TO KEEP THE PREVAILING SHOWERS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT BUT TRY TO HEDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE DRIER SOLUTION WHICH HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL. THE NEWD EJECTING
INITIAL LOBE OF RAIN WITH THE WEAKENING SFC LOW IN WI WILL OCCUR
WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SE. THE SW-NE BAND OF RAIN INDICATED OVER
I-71 CORRIDOR EARLY TUESDAY APPEARS OFF FOR SOME REASON. THINK
THAT YOU WOULD WANT MORE STREAMWISE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE TO WRING OUT RAIN IN THIS AREA FOR THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME THAT IS BEING PROGGED BY THE GFS AND EURO AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND HEMISPHERIC CANADIAN MODEL.

EVEN IF POPS DO HOLD OFF...CIGS SHOULD STILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE
OF DROPPING TO MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THURS AND COULD
DROP TO IFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL PICK UP WED INTO THURS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS







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