Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 291031
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
631 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL TRY AND BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WEAK CAA
SHOULD ALLOW REFORMATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK CAA...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL
RETURN CLOUDS AND RAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CVG/LUK AREA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...PADGETT



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