Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 281045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...PROVIDING WARM DRY WEATHER. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE ILN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS
POISED TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP THE ILN AREA FREE FROM PRECIPITATION TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY. COLD ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. OPTED FOR HIGHS IN THE
80S...A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE TRAVELING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO ENTER INDIANA. ECMWF HAS SHOWN THIS
FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...WHILE THE LATEST GFS NOW IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDING
LIFT. THIS POINTS TO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FACTOR WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS TO THE EAST.
THEREFORE...LOCATIONS WEST OF DAYTON WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH EASTERN SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM TEMPERATURE REGIME. HIGHS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90. THIS COMPARES TO
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK
FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT
POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS
TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ACRS GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR ADVECTED IN ON
NE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF FOG TO BRIEF MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTION EARLY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME THINNING
MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TNGT.
HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KCVG/KLUK AND KILN.


LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST
TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR





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