Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 300552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

East-west front extending across the region will lift north late
tonight into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds will bring warmer
temperatures on Sunday. A strong cold front will push through
the region late Sunday night through Monday morning.


Boundary is laid out west to east across northern portions of
our fa early this evening with some decent instability in place
across southern portions of our fa where sb capes are into the
1000 to 2000 J/KG range. This should decrease some as we head
through this evening and continue to lose the diurnal heating.
However, with a strengthening 925-850 mb jet moving up into our
area later this evening, this could still be enough to initiate
some scattered shower and thunderstorms development through late
evening. The other concern is the MCS currently moving east
into far western Indiana. The hi res models have been
consistently showing this weakening as it moves east across
Indiana. The weakening trend seems to begin in the 01Z-02Z
timeframe. Will have to keep a close eye on this over the next
hour or two. If we do not see a weakening trend, will have to
make some upward adjustments to pops and possibly consider a
flash flood watch for at least a portion of our western fa as
the ground remains saturated. The severe threat also remains
uncertain given the potential weakening trend, but would expect
the best chance for any severe to be along the nose of the
bowing MCS if it makes it into our eastern Indiana counties.


Front may still be in far northern counties at the beginning of
the period but then will quickly lift north in the morning.
Region will be in the warm sector through the day and most, if
not all, of Sunday night. Cannot rule out a few storms
developing with heating, but this only warranted slight chance
PoPs Sunday afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will
spread in from the west, mostly after midnight. Temperatures
will soar well into the 80s Sunday. Readings will stay quite
mild into Sunday evening with more of a drop later in the night
as the precipitation overspreads the area. MOS blend seemed to
have a reasonable handle on temperatures.


A cold front will move through on Monday. There is only limited
instability therefore only have a chance of thunder early in
the day. Shower activity will decrease through the day, however
some wrap around moisture will allow for some light shower
activity along and north of Interstate 70 through Monday night.
Strong low level flow Monday into Tuesday will allow for some
wind gusts up to 40 mph. Flow isn`t oriented the best therefore
believe that this will limit winds from being even stronger.

Dry conditions will be present on Tuesday and most of Tuesday
night. A frontal boundary will work into the area on Wednesday
allowing for rain shower chances. Better rain chances will work
into the region Wednesday night into Thursday as an area of low
pressure approaches the region. There are some differences in
the exact location of the area of low pressure, however most
likely solution is having the low move across southeast portions
of the area or just southeast of the area. This will keep
temperatures cooler on Thursday with most locations only
reaching into the 50s. This system then moves out of the region
leaving most of Friday dry.

Another system south of the area will bring the chance for some
light shower activity to primarily southern portions of the region
on Saturday.


Moist conditions near the ground following recent heavy rain
have produced ceilings down to LIFR early in the TAF period. In
addition, scattered thunderstorms will affect mainly western
sites during the first few hours of the forecast period. Wind
shear is expected as well.

Conditions should improve to MVFR and then VFR by mid morning as
a warm front lifts to Lake Erie allowing thunderstorms and low
ceilings to move out and dissipate. South winds are forecast to
gust over 20 knots in the warm sector.

Late in the TAF period, a strong cold front approaching from the
west will produce the chance for more showers and thunderstorms
at western sites.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are
possible  Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Monday into
Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible again on




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