Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 300808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A
MARKED DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S IS FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN CWA AND WILL REPLACE
THE MUGGY LOWER 70S CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR
SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES


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