Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 260626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.