Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 221403
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1003 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather will continue today as high pressure moves
off to the east. A cold front and waves of low pressure will bring
showers Monday, with showers lingering Tuesday in the cool and
moist northwest flow behind the front. Temperatures starting out
much above normal today will fall well below normal by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Southerly flow pattern will continue through this afternoon
ahead of a cold front moving slowly east out of the Mississippi
Valley. Skies are mostly clear across our area this morning but
we should see an increase in mainly mid and higher level
moisture as we progress through this afternoon. Models are in
generally agreement holding off onset of pcpn until later
tonight so have slowed down pcpn timing across our west for
this evening. Southerly flow should help push temperatures into
the mid to upper 70s for highs today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Clouds will continue to thicken early tonight as moisture
deepens ahead of the cold front. Showers will enter western
counties by Monday morning, before overspreading the entire area
Monday afternoon. Intensity and coverage of showers will be
enhanced by a wave of low pressure traveling northward along
the front through Kentucky and Ohio. Around an inch of rain can
be expected during Monday. Temperatures will begin to slide due
to precip and cloud cover, with highs reaching around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weather pattern to turn colder and wet early this week as a digging
mid level trof interacts with a closed low over the lower MS Vly.

Deepening surface low to rotate nne through the OH Vly Monday
afternoon and into the Great Lakes Monday evening. Will continue
categorical pops Monday evening and then diminish to chance pops
early Tuesday as the low lifts north. A rainfall event of 1 to 2
inches will be possible, so will continue to mention moderate rain
during the evening. Given recent dry period this rain event should
not present widespread flood issues.

Energy drops southeast carving out a mid level over the Great Lakes
Tuesday. Model solutions have trended deeper with this system. This
will keep a chance of showers in the forecast with the best chance
across the northern counties. Temperatures will turn colder with
highs Tuesday of 55 to 60.

Embedded shortwave in the northwest flow to drop southeast into the
mean trof position Wednesday. This will continue to keep the threat
of showers in the forecast. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the
week with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Expect highs
generally in the lower 50s.

Surface high pressure to build into the region Wednesday night.
Depending on cloud cover, frost will be possible Wednesday night
with lows in the mid/upper 30s.

Surface high to slide east across the region Thursday with
temperatures beginning to moderate some. Expect highs in the upper
50s to near 60.

Mid level flow amplifies with trof developing over the nations mid
section at the end of the week. Model solutions differ on timing of
the approach of the moisture axis and next front. ECMWF is slower
and looks reasonable given the high amplification. Will only allow a
slight chance in the west late Friday afternoon and then across the
region Saturday. In a low level southerly flow temperatures are
expected to warm to highs ranging from near 60 northwest to the
upper 60s southeast on Friday. Clouds and pcpn may keep temperatures
a little cooler Saturday, but if timing slows down readings could
reach the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions will stay VFR through today and tonight except at
LUK where BR has reduced visibility to MVFR early this morning.
Sky cover consisting of mid and high clouds will thicken by the
end of the forecast as a cold front moves in from the west. CVG
LUK DAY and ILN should see showers in the vicinity by early
Monday morning. Moderate showers are expected at CVG by the end
of their 30 hour forecast, while conditions become MVFR. Winds
from the south will rise over 10 knots this afternoon, with
speeds not subsiding much tonight under a tightening pressure
gradient.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible through
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio



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