Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 040246
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1046 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THAT ALSO GET MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DID NOT ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE
LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT
TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO IFR VSBY AT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK





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