Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 272010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley tonight. High
pressure will build in for the middle of the week. Another low
pressure system will affect the region Thursday and Friday.


Convection progressing into central Kentucky will continue east
northeast through the rest of the afternoon into the evening.
Mesoanalysis continues to shows a distinct gradient in
instability. Near term models still indicate that instability
will get further north into far southern counties, but for the
most part the forecast area will remain along the northern
gradient. There remains the potential for strong to severe
storms to affect far southern counties late today into the early
evening. Damaging straight line winds seems to be the main

After this initial round of convection, expect to see additional
showers and thunderstorms fill in ahead of a surface low that
will track across the area. While any storms will bring a period
of heavy rainfall, guidance trends suggest that the possibility
of localized flooding seems to be a bit lower than previously
expected. Precipitation will diminish late tonight as the low
continues off to the east.


Some wrap around showers may still affect parts of the forecast
area Tuesday morning before ending entirely. Low clouds will
prevail through the day and most likely all of Tuesday night.
Did not see any reason to vary much from a MOS consensus on


Low level moisture will be present across the area at the start of
the long term especially along and south of the Ohio River. Although
decent cloud cover will be present through the day, dry conditions
are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night.

A warm front lifts northward on Thursday allowing for some shower
and thunderstorm activity.  A low pressure system approaches
Thursday night.  Models differ on how progressive this low is as it
moves through the area.  The ECMWF has come more into line with a
slightly slower solution and therefore expect showers and
thunderstorms across the region on Friday before beginning to taper
off Friday night into Saturday morning.  After this time expect dry
conditions for a remainder of the weekend and into Monday.  The next
system will begin to move into the area for Monday night bringing
additional precipitation.

High temperatures through the long term will be in the 50s and 60s.
Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s, however a few
temperatures in the upper 30s will be possible north of Dayton to
Columbus Wednesday night and Saturday night.


Early part of the TAF period will be uneventful with some
cumulus and extensive mid to high clouds. Convection in western
Kentucky will spread into the region and potentially start
affecting TAF sites after 22Z. In the wake of this initial
activity, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop and
move across the region as low pressure approaches. At this point
expect VFR conditions to prevail with temporary lower
visibilities in heavier precipitation.

As the low moves across the area overnight, thunderstorms will
diminish although showers may linger. Ceilings will fall to MVFR
below 2000 ft and likely eventually drop to IFR before 12Z.
Winds will become variable then shift to north. Showers will end
Tuesday morning but low ceilings will persist with some slow
improvement late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday night and
likely continue into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening. MVFR to IFR
ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.




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