Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 021044
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE
SURFACE WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK H5 LOW WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY TODAY.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY AND INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
FORCING OF DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A HUMID AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BE FOUND IN THE REGION AS STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND
APPROACH 90 IN MANY SPOTS...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ANY CONVECTION BEYOND
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING THE H5
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...RETROGRADING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE SOME OF THE SPECIFICS REGARDING THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN GOING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE TEXAS COAST NNE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE..THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY NEBULOUS...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE OHIO
VALLEY IN A REGIME OF WEAK AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS WARM
CONDITIONS...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ARE
EXPECTED. GEFS 850MB/700MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE NOT EXTREME...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LENDS SUPPORT TO A
FORECAST FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AT THE HIGH END OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD.

WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING...ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE GFS HAS BEEN A
LITTLE MORE WILLING TO CONVECT...BUT QPF OUTPUT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT
IN EITHER CASE. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
FLATTEN...THOUGH THE EXTENT AND QUICKNESS THAT THIS OCCURS IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
GOING INTO TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOW FAR THIS PROCESS GETS IS MUCH TOO EARLY
TO FORECAST...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND AS LIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT SE
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PUT IN A VCSH AT THE
TAFS TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES



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