Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 070948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
448 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

Issued at 1230 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

A strong low pressure system over southwest Ontario will move
slowly east across southeast Canada over the next couple of days
causing cold conditions across our area. Winds will become
northwest Thursday and Friday, causing lake effect snow across
southwest lower Michigan and north central Indiana. Fair weather
is expected Saturday as high pressure moves across the area. Snow
is expected across northern Indiana, northwest Ohio, and the
adjacent counties in southern Michigan Sunday as a low pressure
system moves through. This will be followed by colder conditions
and probably some lake effect snow early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 444 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

A lake effect snow event will begin to unfold tonight as much colder
air spreads over the relatively warm water of Lake Michigan behind a
cold front. A secondary trof should move across the area late
Thursday and cause winds to veer a little more to the northwest.
Have issued a winter storm watch for lake effect snow and blowing
snow and a winter weather advisory for lake effect snow for late
tonight through Friday. Southern Lake Michigan remains
exceptionally warm for this time of year. Given thermal profiles,
lake fetch and instability, expect 5 to 8 inches over far
southwest Lower Michigan with lesser amounts farther inland by
late Friday. Inversion heights should begin to fall Friday as the
ridge axis approaches.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

Lake effect snow will continue to diminish Friday night ahead of the
next system poised to arrive this weekend. Even the spectral models
such as the EC and GFS have really been struggling the past several
days handling the short wave energy with a broad and expansive upper
trof over North America. Went with the cooler GFS this weekend
favoring all snow Sunday, although can`t rule out a rain/snow mix
over southern areas. Confidence in any solution is even lower for
next week. A lot of cold air will be over the Canadian interior
stretching down into the Northern Plains with plenty of energy in
both the northern and southern streams. Cross/polar flow with bring
a fresh surge arctic air south, so the wintry pattern is set to
continue next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

Post frontal strato cu deck has moved east of the area with just
sct cu in contd CAA regime overnight. An upper level trof will
move through the area this aftn causing an increase in mid clouds,
and slowly veering low level winds. This should result in strato
mvfr cu deck moving back in from the nw this evening and


IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 2 PM EST Friday
     for INZ004>007.

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 2 PM EST Friday
     for MIZ080.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon
     for MIZ077>079.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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