Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010442
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TO LINGER CLOUD COVER LONGER THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE/OBS DATA SHOWS STRATUS HOLDING STRONG IN NE
PARTS OF THE AREA COURTESY OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CELINGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING
SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE STARTING TO MIX IN. AS A RESULT
HAVE STILL TRENDS TOWARDS SOME CLEARING IN NE AREAS OVERNIGHT.
ISSUE WITH THIS WILL BE MODELS ALL POINT TOWARDS REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS AND EVEN FOG (SOME LOCALLY DENSE) IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. FOR NOW THERE IS NO MENTION OF FOG AND SKY COVER WILL
GO NO LOWER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE OVERNIGHT FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. CLOSED LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER ONE MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL RIDGE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRYING
TRAILING BEHIND FIST UPPER LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MIXING OUT OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER SW CWA...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND
LIGHT NE FLOW TONIGHT. GOOD VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SO ANY FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AT MOST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. MAY STILL STRUGGLE WITH MORNING
CLOUDS BUT THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID-DAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AND HIGHS WED
NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IMPRESSIVE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE OVR WRN SD WILL LIFT OUT RAPIDLY NWD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS SHRT TERM IN RESPONSE TO SIG UPSTREAM SW
KICKER DIVING INTO THE PACNW THIS AFTN. SIG DEEP EWD TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION XPCD THEREAFTER W/EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW DVLPMNT ACRS THE
NRN LAKES LIKELY BY WEEKS END. AS A RESULT...A SIG POLEWARD SURGE OF
MSTR WILL TAKE PLACE AHD OF DEEPENING SFC FNTL ZONE W/MOST PREFERRED
TIMING BEING LT THU NIGHT/FRI AM PER CONSENSUS MEANS AS MADE SOME
SIG EARLY PD ADJUSTMENTS TO PRIOR POPS.

OTRWS STG LL CAA TO WRAP EWD THROUGH SRN FLANK OF MID LVL CYCLONE LT
FRI INTO SAT W/SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS COMPARED TO THU. LL WRLY FLW
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR LK BASED SHRA DVLPMNT SWD INTO NRN IN AND
WILL TRUNCATE PRIOR SWD EXTENT. HWVR FAR NRN AREAS THAT DO SEE SHRA
ON SAT WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S.

SLW MODERATION TO FOLLOW AS DEEP LAKES CYCLONE FILLS AND WKNS EWD
INTO EARLY NXT WEEK. SECONDARY CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH WRN
PERIPHERY OF H5 HGT ANOMALY MAY TRIGGER ADDNL SHRA LT SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALTHOUGH MORE NRN TRACK OF THIS FTR AND LL MSTR SCOUR AHD OF
LEAD SYS WARRANTS NOTHING MORE THAN SLGT CHC MENTION AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

BKN/OVC MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER
STRONG INVERSION. BRIEF VIS REDUCTION AND LOWERING OF CIGS INTO
MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY 07-13Z
WINDOW GIVEN EXPECTED COOLING IN BRIEF CLEAR PATCHES SHOWING UP ON
SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ANTICIPATED BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE/MIXING HELPS SCATTER/LIFT
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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