Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 301945
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...SPAWNING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF INDIANA AND OHIO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF APCHG POTENT SRN
STREAM SW EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE MO BOOTHILL A LG CONCERN GOING
FWD. NR TERM MARGINAL SVR THREAT TIED TO SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN YET TEMPERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR. THUS SUSPECT NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
WIND THREAT THROUGH SUNSET. HWVR RAPIDLY INCREASING LL MSTR
FLUX/ASCENT SEEN INADV OF CLOSING/DEEPENING MID LVL CIRC PORTENTS A
A FURTHER WIDENING/CONSOLIDATION OF CONVN WITHIN DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF WHICH SHLD BE A VRY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER.
OTRWS GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE SOLUTION SPACE THAT OVER EMPHASIZED
THE MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE ACRS NW IN/SW MI AS COMPOSITING OUTFLW
ALG A KCMI-KDFI LINE SHLD IMPEDED BTR NWD MSTR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH LT
EVENING WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL QPF THERE.

UPR WAVE FLATTENS AND SHEARS NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN AND XPC
PCPN WILL DIMINISH/END QUICKLY THROUGH MID MORNING. HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLD CVR AND DEEP NERLY FLW WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COLDER
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WEAKENING DEFORMATION PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD EXIT
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. LINGERING INVERSION SHOULD MAKE FOR A SLOW
EROSION OF LOW CLOUD DECK SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BIT MORE ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY HELPING TO SLOW EARLY WEEK
WARMING TREND.

UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE BLOCKING IN NATURE AS
SOUTHERN LATITUDE TROUGH CUTS OFF ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE MEAN
UPPER RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SET UP A
RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN FOR LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
GFS IS A BIT MORE ENTHUSIASTIC WITH WEAK VORTS ROTATING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THIS SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK
SIGNALS/FORCING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
DAMPENING UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AS MENTIONED...MODERATING TREND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS...BUT SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDS TO BEING WILL DETERIORIATE QUICKLY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHD OF POTENT NEWD EJECTING SW OUT OF THE MO BOOTHILL. EXPANDING
CONVN FM ERN IL INTO CNTRL IN SHLD STEADILY BRIDGE NWD THROUGH THIS
AFTN IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING LL WAA ALTHOUGH DO XPC A MORE
SUBDUED THUNDER THREAT INVOF KSBN AS SFC CYCLONE TRACKS WELL SOUTH
THROUGH CNTRL IN. OTRWS WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS XPCD TO DVLP THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN DVLPS ACRS THE TERMINALS. IN
ADDN...WINDS XPCD TO VEER NERLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CYCLONE OVERHEAD W/SFC GUSTS TO 25KTS LIKELY
AFT 06Z.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ009-017-018-022>027-
     032-033.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     024.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.