Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 040709
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
309 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TRANQUIL WX CONTS THIS PD. SFC RIDGE CNTRD ACRS THE
NRN PLAINS WILL BLD SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN LAKES ON WED SWWD OF
DEEP CUTOFF OVR WRN QB. AS A RESULT FAIR WX AND NR SEASONABLE TEMPS
WILL CONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE QUIET/LOW HUMIDITY WX INTO WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER WYOMING THEN EVENTUALLY GETS CAUGHT UP IN MEAN WNW FLOW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. 00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH/WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE/RAIN SHIELD.
AS A RESULT LOWERED AND SHIFTED POPS SOUTH A BIT DURING THESE
PERIODS...AND KEPT SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE EXTREME
SOUTH WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...PERSISTENT
WNW FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL US AND TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...WHILE AT THE SFC
PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WNW
INTO THE PLAINS. FRIDAY`S SMALLER SCALE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
WILL LIKELY PASS SSW OF THE FA WITH MAINLY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. ADDED LOW POPS AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO FOLD LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE IN GIVEN APPROACH OF STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF MID MS VALLEY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDS CONT THROUGH THE PD AS SFC RIDGE CNTRD THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS BLDS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


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