Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 230249
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
849 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER TX WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA TOWARD EARLY TO MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, WITH
LESS OF A CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LEFT THE SVR WORDING
INTACT IN THE FORECAST. WITH DEWPTS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND
WATER TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S SEA FOG IS DEVELOPING AND VIS
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO
REFLECT THIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$






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