Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 291229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...YIELDING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
VARIABLE...AND RUN THE FULL SPECTRUM. BIT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OFFERING A LITTLE MORE HOPE IN THE WAY OF
EROSION/SCATTERING OUT THAN THE NAM. LEANED MORE TWD THE
LATTER...SHOWING NO BETTER THAN IMPROVEMENT TO THE LOW END OF MVFR
FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH IFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
BROAD L/WV TROF IN THE UPR LVLS ACRS THE CONUS WITH WLY FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A S/WV THAT MOVED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES WAS RIDGING S OVER THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH NLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACRS THE
AREA. DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LVLS CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE
SHALLOW SFC AIRMASS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY LT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDDAY. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN ON AN OTHERWISE DRY
AND COOL DAY. A WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
TODAY. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOME DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE UPPER
30S/NR 40 NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRES SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE
30S WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACRS THE NRN TIER OF PARISHES AND
COUNTIES. IN ALL..LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY BUT DRY NEW YEARS EVE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS 2015 LOOKS TO GET
OFF TO A WET START. RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE S TX COAST UNDER DIVERGENT
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A S/WV OVER THE SWRN STATES. PRECIP
WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH THURSDAY...THEN TO
NR 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPR TX
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. CARRIED LIKELY POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF SFC FEATURES
LENDS TO ONLY MODERATE FCST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

THE UPR LVL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NE ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE ACRS LA. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. RAIN CHCS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
STRENGTHEN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRES PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXERCISE CAUTION
TO LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODT TO OCNLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING SE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE S TX COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  42  58  36 /  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  42  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
KAEX  50  39  53  32 /  10   0  10   0
KLFT  56  42  56  37 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13




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