Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
933 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH
DURING THE DAY IT WILL REACH THE I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND MID DAY AND
THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BASIC
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT REMAINS THE SAME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING AT KBPT AND
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 22/13Z...THEN
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL LIFT ANY
PATCHY FOG THAT HAS FORMED. A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH REACHING KAEX BY LATE MORNING
AND THE OTHER TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL AIR MASS IS
RELATIVELY DRY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN ALONG THE
FRONT...SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AND PROBABILITY AT THIS
TIME TO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL HEAD SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

SHORT TERM...WEAK COOL ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NOTICIBLY COOLER AS A RESULT. MUCH
COOLER TNITE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. PLEASANT
EARLY FALL TEMPS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
RETREATS BACK INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WENT WITH THE COOLER EURO WHICH BRINGS IN COOLER AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROF WHICH KICKS RAPIDLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  62  84  62  87 /  30   0   0   0   0
KBPT  90  64  86  63  87 /  30  10   0   0   0
KAEX  87  57  83  58  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  89  60  84  62  88 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

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&&

$$






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