Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 021221
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
721 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF
WATERS...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH KAEX...AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE I-10 TERMINALS. RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY NEAR KAEX SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AT
KBPT/KLCH...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE PREVAILING RAINFALL IN
THE SHORT TERM LIES AT THE ACADIANA TERMINALS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INSERTED AT KLFT/KARA...WITH JUST VICINITY USED ELSEWHERE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED PREVAIL MVFR...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS. CDFNT WEST OF THE AREA PROGGED TO FINALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...WITH RAINFALL COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MODEL TIME HGTS POINT TWD MVFR CIGS LINGERING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER BUSY MORNING UNDERWAY AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SVR
STORMS ARE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 137 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FM
SOUR LAKE TO JENNINGS NE TO BUNKIE.

LATEST WV/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
PERSISTING ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED WITHIN THE TROF...ONE TRAVELING NE OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...ONE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND ANOTHER BCMG SHEARED
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AT THE BASE OF THIS BROAD TROUGH...AN ACTIVE
SWLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
ROUGHLY EXTENDS FM RUSTON TO LUFKIN BACK TOWARD WRN HOUSTON.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DRIER
WEATHER FINALLY MOVES IN. DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE BROAD TROF GRADUALLY BCMG
ESTABLISHED TOWARD THE ERN CONUS AS THE NRN STREAM S/WV OUT OF
CANADA CONTINUES ITS SWD TREK THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SE ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
FURTHER TO THE SE THROUGH TUES.

AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF AND PRECIP
WATER VALUES OF 1.7-1.8 INCHES ARE NOTED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. THUS...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT WILL FALL ON
SATURATED GROUNDS AND MAINTAINING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS
TIME...IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THIS TIME SAVE FOR POSSIBLY
THE EASTERNMOST ZONES OF THE ACADIANA REGION. THE OTHER ITEM OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER. THE SVR
TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR
STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARD ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SVR
STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...FINALLY
BRINGING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER
OFF FM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY SMALL POPS LINGERING
OVER THE ACADIANA REGION AND COASTAL ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A
MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP LOW OVER
THE ERN CONUS...PLACING THE REGION UNDER N/NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACRS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THIS RIDGE EXTENDING
FM SRN CANADA TO SRN TX. THE BENEFIT OF THIS PATTERN IS THAT THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEEP N-NW FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH IN ITS WAKE AND REMAIN OVER
THE GULF COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

24

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TIDES ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED.

OTHERWISE...SCTD TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED...AND
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO SPREAD SE. LT TO MODT NLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRES DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RESUME BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  60  76  54 /  80  30  10   0
LCH  80  62  78  55 /  80  30  10   0
LFT  81  66  78  57 /  80  40  20   0
BPT  80  61  78  57 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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