Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 280301
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...BASICALLY TO PUT THEM IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THESE
CHANGES DO NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. JUST SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...COLD
WITH NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ON-GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  37  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  41  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  32  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






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