Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 301716
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1216 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017


.AVIATION...Rains have exited east of the area with sharply drier
air incoming from the west. Will just see some scattered to
broken upper level cloudiness through the afternoon with VFR
continuing. Saturated soils from previous rains along with clear
skies and light winds should yield some light BR later tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 955 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

UPDATE...
Still seeing main convection area over the southeast corner of the
forecast area and the Lower Atchafalaya Basin this morning, and
this where the activity will continue for the remainder of the
morning into early afternoon, as moist plume moving out of the
Gulf is being enhanced by upper level divergence. Cyclone moving
out of the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley will
help push a cool front across the forecast area, bringing drier
air and gradually ending convection during the afternoon. Current
forecast has a handle on the situation, and no big changes to the
grids expected at this time.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After a busy afternoon and evening across the area, showers and
thunderstorms continue to linger across the eastern and
southeastern portions of the forecast area. The cold front which
is noted this morning moving into the northwest portions of the
area and approaching BPT. Can not rule out additional development
until after the front passes through the area this afternoon.

Thereafter still expecting a brief respite as the parade of storm
systems still forecast to continue. The next system will approach
the area by Saturday and guidance is coming into better agreement.
Showers and thunderstorms could start as early as late Saturday
across the west and overspread the region Saturday night into
sunday. Will continue to monitor the potential for heavy rains
with this system, especially after the areas of heavy rain that we
seen across the area the past 24 hours.

Will also need to monitor the Sunday period for potential for
severe thunderstorms as well. This next system will exit Monday
afternoon. The next frontal system approaches around Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  54  84  57 /  30   0   0   0
LCH  77  59  82  62 /  20   0   0  10
LFT  79  58  84  62 /  40   0   0   0
BPT  76  59  83  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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