Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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707
FXUS64 KLIX 300906
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
406 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Strongly efficient rain producing thunderstorms west of the area
this morning. Large hail also being produced in some of this
activity within cooler lapse rates west of the area. Thinking
remains the same with respect to impacts and severity today. Wind
speeds will be one of the most noteable things today.

The cold front is just now starting to move into the prefrontal
area of sh/ts to the west. The activity ahead of the front will
wait on the front to begin transiting our area this morning. This
still puts the line of sh/ts moving into the northwest portion of
the area just before daylight. Just like the disturbance that is
causing the explosion of activity this morning, there looks to be
another similar disturbance that will do the same later this
evening as the front begins to clear southeast LA.

Severe weather variables remain high today. The 4c inversion
yesterday weakened quite a bit at the 12z sounding Saturday which
would have been an issue. But there were two dynamically enhanced
inversions at 1500ft and another at 4kft. These two along with the
subsident dry air causing them to form, were the main variables
keeping sh/ts from developing. By yesterday evening the sounding
showed only one weak inversion of about 1c hanging on at 4kft.
But above that, it was not cooling at an average lapse
rate(regressive norm) for the atmosphere. This would have been a
weak inhibitor as well but it wouldn`t have kept anything down if
capable of getting started but cumulative with the low level
inversion, it did help. Today we will see somewhat of a different
story as the lift along the front causes the inversion to lift
more and become more unstable.

Any thunderstorm activity that can produce 20-30mph winds by
momentum transfer to the sfc coupled with the already gradient
wind speeds of 25mph could easily produce 50+mph wind speeds along
the boundary today. This could cause damaging wind gusts, and
this should be the main hazard with any strong or severe
thunderstorms Sunday. Other severe weather parameters will not be
discounted but should not be as prevalent. An abundance of lightning
will be produced very easily by these storms through this
evening.

Rainfall amounts are still expected to be from 2 to 4 inches total
through through tonight. Most of this is expected with the
boundary as it moves through which would cause this to fall within
a relatively short period. Flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas could be a problem today as well.

Coastal flooding is the next biggest item on the list. Areas that
normally receive salt water inundation during times of abnormal
high tide levels will receive water again today. Tide levels are
expected to be around 2ft above normal today. Highest levels will
be during times of high tide which will be from late morning
through the early afternoon hours today. Some of the lowest beach
and secondary paved routes may observe up to a foot of salt water
over those surfaces today.

LONG TERM...
Another round of sh/ts are expected Wednesday into Thursday
morning ahead of another cold front that should move through the
area Thursday morning. This could prove to be a wetter event with
its own round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible. We will
keep the main focus on one scenario at a time for the moment and
work this event as it unfolds and then swing that focus to mid-
week.

.LONG TERM...
Northwest winsd on the back side of the mid-week front will cause
all advisories, watches and warnings to lower. This will deliver
some much needed nice weather before a large upper high over the
southwest moves east and brings on the heat by the beginning of
the next work week.

&&

AVIATION...
Will introduce TSRA for western portions of the area this
morning, including KMCB, KBTR and KHDC. This package will spread
the mention of storms across the remaining terminals between 18z
today and 00z Monday, although storms could linger beyond that at
KGPT.

Winds will be a factor today with gusts to 30 knots or higher
at all terminals. This will especially be a problem for east-
west oriented runways. Expect winds to diminish after the passage
of the front through the day and overnight.

MARINE...
A strong spring cold front is causing winds to become very strong
today with some gusts well over gale force. Will continue the
Small Craft Advisory for all areas since sustained winds remain at
high end advisory. Very dangerous conditions for small craft will
continue until well after frontal passage later today. Waves near
6 feet in larger lakes, and 9 to 12 feet in the open Gulf waters
can be expected ahead of the front. Once the front moves through,
winds will shift to the northwest late tonight into Monday. Winds
will remain high post front at around 20 knots and waters will
still be rough. Expect improving conditions by Tuesday as high
pressure builds and seas begin to calm. Another low pressure
system is expected to impact the coast towards Thursday and Friday
of next week.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Emergency Management emails
 Monitoring convective threats for today.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  51  79  54 / 100  30   0   0
BTR  77  53  80  56 / 100  20   0   0
ASD  81  57  80  57 / 100  70   0   0
MSY  81  60  80  62 / 100  70   0   0
GPT  78  61  78  61 / 100  80  10   0
PQL  81  59  79  55 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ040-050-
     058-060>064-066>070-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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