Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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