Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
883
FXUS65 KLKN 040904
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
204 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD A LITTLE FURTHER EACH DAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ENSURE ABUNDANT SHOWERS OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF NEVADA THIS MORNING...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM ARE MOVING INTO THE STATE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THAT THE PROTECTOR RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN THE
OFFING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SECURELY DRY PERIOD FOR A
LITTLE WHILE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TO RECENTER A TAD EAST OF
THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY WHILE STARTING TO DE-AMPLIFY.
THE RIDGE HOLDS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO STALL THE ONSET OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW CENTERED WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO.

THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS SUPERB ON POSITIONING THE
OFFSHORE TROUGH...EVEN SHOWING AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHERLY SHIFT OF
THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE GFS MODEL MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE
LKN FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THE NAM SREF AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE ECMWF MODEL
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE NOW...FOLLOWED BY THE SREF AND
THE NAM MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY LESS QPF. THE FORECAST MELD WILL
HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY FROM THE SANTA ROSA
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND WESTWARD IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NYE WHERE SOME ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN MANY PLACES.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL NOT EFFECTIVELY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN...IT IS BEING VERY RESISTANT TO CHANGE...CONTINUING TO
SLOW DOWN THE ACTIVE PATTERN. MODELS NOW INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SKIRT THE COASTAL REGION
BUT NOT MOVE ONSHORE UNTIL LATER. THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL STILL
INFILTRATE MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN ENOUGH TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FLUX MUCH FURTHER EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN IMPACT CENTRAL
NEVADA WITH A FOCUS ON WHITE PINE COUNTY WHERE VALLEY WIND GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 45 MPH ON MORE OF A WIDESPREAD NOTE. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT PROPOSES THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND
AROUND THE SAN DIEGO AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER SOUTHERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW STARTS
OFF SOCAL COAST AND THEN MOVES SOUTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS.
PLUS...IT STAYS CLOSED LONGER RATHER THAN OPENING OVER WYOMING.
HENCE...WRAP AROUND RH WILL LINGER LONGER IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA. EVEN NORTHWEST NEVADA MAY GET SOME BENEFIT FROM THIS WHEREAS
PREVIOUSLY IT WAS THE WALLFLOWER AGAIN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK TO
MODERATE EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
MONDAY`S IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS MONDAY AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LARGE
AREAS. WINDS ARE NOT GOING TO BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM APART FROM
GUSTS FROM CONVECTIVE CELLS. TEMPS WARM, SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL.
REMEMBER...THE AVERAGE LAST DATE OF 32 DEGREE MINS IS AROUND LATE
MAY/EARLY JUNE FOR MOST VALLEYS WITH EVEN LATE JUNE FOR SOME HIGHER
VALLEYS. YOU WANT TO PLANT...YOU`VE BEEN WARNED...

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CIGS WILL BEGIN CREEPING INTO KWMC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS FORMING THERE BY ABOUT 20Z...AND CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNSET. VCSH FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. KEKO WILL
HAVE MID LEVEL CIGS FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON. KELY AND KTPH WILL BE
LEAST AFFECTED BY ADVANCING CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS AT ALL SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
EXCEED BANKFULL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THE
JARBIDGE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO RISE AND HAS BEEN PEAKING IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR SMALL STREAMS
MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD MAKE THEM
IMPASSABLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/98/98



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.