Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
000
FXUS65 KLKN 240419 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
919 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY BEFORE STARTING TO WARM UP
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START RETURNING TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
FWZ 455 AND 457 THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED JUST NORTH OF ELY AND SOUTH OF EUREKA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG SW WINDS TO CONTINUE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THIS WAS AN INTERESTING RFW AS ONLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7K WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. I WORDED THIS IN THE HAZARD PRODUCT AND FWF TO
ASSURE ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATION ONGOING FIRES WILL EXPERIENCE THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 310 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOSED LOW SWINGING INLAND
OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT A MUCH DRIER AIR FLOW INTO THE
AREA TODAY...WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED MOST CONVECTION. SOME CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ELKO COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT TO
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING AS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE TOO LOW. WHILE TODAY WAS
HOT...COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS PROBABLY NOT QUITE REACHING 90. DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON FRIDAY
WITH A STEADY THORUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SO
AFTER A RATHER COOL NIGHT (BY THIS JULY`S
STANDARDS)...TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW SO STILL NO CONVECTION. RCM

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED.

DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SATURDAY...MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SE ZONES, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING BACK TO 1/2 INCH IN AND NEAR WHITE
PINE COUNTY. INCREASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUD COVER AND MENTIONED
ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER, ON THE WEST FLANK OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO. PW CLIMBS TO
0.75-0.90 INCH ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS, IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO DIRECT ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. PW INCREASES TO 0.80-0.90 INCH, NEAR 1 INCH LOCALLY
ON SOME MODELS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NE NEVADA, SO INCREASED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS. ATMOSPHERIC FLOW LOOKS WEAK
UNDER STRONG 500 MB HEIGHTS ALOFT, SO STRONG STORMS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE, AS PW REMAINS IN THE 0.75-1 INCH RANGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLENTY HOT, IN THE 90S, WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY. STARTING SUNDAY MORNING,
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MILD, MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S. BT

AVIATION...STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z,
15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY IN
THE VALLEYS AT THE TERMINALS AT SUNSET. WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LESS
WIND EXPECTED THURSDAY, W/SW AT 10-20 KTS. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER/CB NEAR KELY SATURDAY, AND ISO
-TSRA ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY. SCT -TSRA LIKELY TO IMPACT
KEKO, KELY AND KTPH MONDAY. BT

FIRE WEATHER...TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DRY AIR MAKING FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT. TROUGH
SHIFTS A BIT EAST ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING
IN...DECREASED MIXING OVERALL...AND A SHIFT IN THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL PRODUCE SURFACE WINDS WHICH ARE NOT AS WELL
ALIGNED WITH THE WINDS ALOFT. OVERALL THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA
BELOW CRITERIA ON THURSDAY...THOUGH BUFR GUIDANCE HAS GREATER
MIXING NEAR ELY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRUSH WITH CRITERIA.
SINCE OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE...DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND
RED FLAG WARNING ANYWHERE...BUT CERTAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY.

RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
STILL LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH BY SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/99/95






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.