Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 271006
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
306 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND COOL NIGHTS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE
LAST VESTIGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING EAST
INTO UTAH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY. THIS IS DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
AND CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS BY TUESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. MONDAY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TUESDAY GFS AND GEM BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE EC HAS MUCH
HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE MODEL SUGGESTING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP AREA DRY BUT
COULD HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH FORECAST
AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW FAIR
WEATHER AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY AT KEKO AND KELY AND KWMC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOOK FOR DRY AND WARMER AFTERNOONS TODAY AND
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHERN
NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT NOTHING OUT
OF THE ORDINARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

BY SATURDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
NEVADA...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WILL
FALL BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS TO BE IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF FIRE ZONES 454...455...457 AND 467. AS SUCH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CRITICAL WIND/RH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/90/90/86





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