Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 182200
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A CLOUDY SKY TO CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...DELIVERING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CLOUDS PREVAIL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY, AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO MID DECEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE AXIS
WILL CREST OVER THE CWA TONIGHT, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS ARRIVING IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. BAND OF LIGHT, ACCUMULATING WET SNOW EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
A JACKPOT-BATTLE MOUNTAIN LINE BY 4 PM, AND THEN SAG SE INTO MUCH
OF ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. 12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW THIS EVOLUTION
THE BEST, AND FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE FOR THE POP GRIDS AND SNOW
COVERAGE. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT STRONG, BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEVADA VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, EXCEPT
BELOW 5000 FT WEST OF BATTLE MOUNTAIN WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AT ANY RATE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT ON
TRAVEL WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING WET. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS SW ELKO COUNTY, MAINLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH 9 PM FRIDAY,
AND MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. SNOW FIZZLES QUICKLY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS, ALTHOUGH KEPT A MENTION OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY FLURRIES IN THE CONTINUED MOIST
FLOW.

SATURDAY...MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH A DECENT OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT
ON TAP. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP, KEEPING
SATURDAY MORNING LARGELY DRY, AND REDUCED POPS EARLY IN THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN QUICKLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS A NICE SLUG
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AIMS AT NORTHERN NEVADA. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50 BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH
INCREASED CONFIDENCE, INCREASED POP GRIDS A BUNCH INTO THE LIKELY
TO DEFINITE CATEGORY. PACIFIC MOISTURE SOURCE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE,
WITH EVEN A TONED-DOWN MODEL BLEND OF QPF YIELDING A BENEFICIAL
0.10-0.20 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
WILL LARGELY BE A RAIN EVENT FOR THE VALLEYS. PRECIP LIKELY TO
START AS WET SNOW, ESPECIALLY ON SUMMITS AND PASSES, BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY WELL ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY
EVENING, AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR RUSHES IN. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
ABOVE 7000 FT, WITH 10-18 INCHES OF WET SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS OF
ELKO COUNTY. TRAVEL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE AFFECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT NOTHING BUT RAIN AND WET ROADS EXPECTED IN THE
POPULATED VALLEYS. AN ELEVATION-BASED ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
SUCH PLACES AS PEQUOP SUMMIT ON I-80 (ELEVATION 6967 FT) SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL HANG ON FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS FAR NE NEVADA (NE ELKO COUNTY), FROM MOUNTAIN
CITY TO JARBIDGE TO JACKPOT. MOST OTHER ZONES EXPECTED TO BE DRY
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOTICEABLY MILDER, WITH A SW WIND AT 10-20
MPH PUSHING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE
FINALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE
ID-NV BORDER AND OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING... RIDGE AMPLIFIES PUSHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV...HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY...CLOSER TO THE MEXMOS VALUES. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING. ON CHRISTMAS...MODELS INDICATE FOR THE UPPER LOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS TO PUSH INTO
THE CWA. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEVADA FROM THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE UPPER
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS
IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER NEVADA. RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE EVENING WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87


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