Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 180901
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
201 AM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions will hold for a couple more
days. Then another quick-hitting storm will bring some rain and
snow showers to the Great Basin. High pressure will bring
improving conditions for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Clear skies are prevalent
across much of the LKN CWFA this morning. However there are clouds
streaming into central Nevada south of highway 50. Clouds are
hugging the center of ridge circulation and emanating from the
Pacific. There was some lightning associated with this influx of
moisture along a modeled deformation zone off the coast near
Santa Barbara. Dry conditions will continue through Thursday,
then a fast-moving cold front will bring a mix of valley rain and
snow, along with several inches of snow above 6000 feet Friday.
The models have been persistent with the timing of this system and
the amount of QPF has increased.

Today through Thursday. Dry conditions will continue. Low
pressure will be dropping south from the Aleutian Islands and
nearing the California coast. Precipitation banding will begin
along the northern California and Oregon coastal areas. Winds will
be increasing over Humboldt County and could touch advisory level
towards the western part of the county. A strengthening southwest
flow will allow high temperatures to reach their potential. High
temperatures will be in the 70s. Low temperatures will be in the
30s.

Thursday night through Friday. Low pressure will pass through the
Silver State. The models are still showing this system to be a
quick hitter however there is now more of southerly extent of the
precipitation trajectory, snow levels are modeled lower, and
model QPF indicates up to 4 inches of snow possible at the 6000
feet level, essentially the valley floors of where the QPF is
focused...northern Elko County. At this juncture, precipitation
chances will be highest north of Interstate 80 with an emphasis on
northern Elko County however precipitation is expected to reach
as far south as highway 50. Snow levels will drop to near 6000
feet across northern Nevada. Interstate 80 through the Pequops
could be a concern on Friday. Even though the daytime passage of
the front will reduce the impact on the roadway. High temperatures
will range from the 40s across Elko County to the 50s across
Humboldt County, and the 60s south of highway 50. Low temperatures
will be in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday. Mainly dry conditions
will prevail for the long term period.

Friday evening. The trough axis will quickly move east of the
state and most of the precipitation will end abruptly as cooler
air pours in. There could be some lingering showers across eastern
Nevada.

Midnight Friday through Saturday night. As the Pacific ridge tries
to reconstruct, there is a surge of Pacific moisture crossing
Oregon and northern Nevada, modeled to dirty the ridge crest and
possible instigating some shower activity near the Oregon and
Idaho borders with Nevada. High temperatures will generally be in
the 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s.

Sunday through Tuesday. Dry conditions return with a warming
trend. Pacific high pressure will expand rapidly over the Great
Basin. High temperatures will rise through the 60s to near 70
degrees once again. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through Wednesday night.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

92/92/92



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