Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 181043
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
343 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSTABLE LATER SUMMER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. SMOKE FROM
CALIFORNIA FIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME AREA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES LEND
UNCERTAINTY TO THE DETAILS OF THE IMMEDIATE RANGE FORECAST. NAM
WANTS BEAUCOUP RH AND PW`S IN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT SHUNTS THE HIGHEST VALUES INTO UTAH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS NOT AS PROFOUND ON THIS BUT IT`S ALSO BEEN THE
MODEL OF BEING DESPAIRINGLY WRONG ON THIS EVENT. GIVEN A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO...INCLUDING THE MASSIVE INSTABILITY THE NAM
WANTS...HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER THE FORECAST FROM 2-8 POINTS TODAY
AND AROUND 2-5 POINTS TONIGHT. KEPT SAME VALUES...ROUGHLY...FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING BUT TIGHTENED UP THE OVERALL COVERAGE AREA OF
THE POPS. TODAY`S STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS AS 4
DIGIT CAPE VALUES WILL WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND JET STREAK
OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION. ISSUES WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MODERATE SIZED HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS IN TIGHT
CORES. SEVERITY OF STORMS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS WILL STILL OCCUR. LIGHTNING WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE IN SOME STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CLOSED LOW STILL
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE SLOWLY INTO AND THEN ACROSS NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS THE LOW
ENTRAINS AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRAWS IT NORTH INTO THE SILVER
STATE. FORCING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NEVADA...SPREADING NORTH
INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD AND DAY-TIME INSOLATION DOES ITS THING. STORM MOTIONS
DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY FAST SO FLASH FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUE...AND THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MEAN HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS MONDAY WITH A RAPID
DECREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DAY AS WE SIT UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM MAY SWING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY PER ECMWF TIMING. THIS COULD
BE THE FIRST TRUELY AUTUMNAL FRONT OF THE SEASON WITH BOTH
PRECIPITATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING...BUT ITS STILL PRETTY FAR
OUT THERE.

TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/RAIN/COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE IDEA OF A DEEP PACIFIC
TROUGH IS REALIZED. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKEY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT KWMC OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE...THOUGH COULD
RETURN AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
AND VIS ALL TERMINALS WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KEKO AND
KELY PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL GUST IN ZONES 455 AND 457 AND POSSIBLY
IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF 454 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE PRETTY HIGH WITH MOISTURE FROM LEFT OVER TROPICAL STORMS
STILL HANGING AROUND. BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FIRE DISTRICT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO CLASSIFY AS WET IN MOST PLACES...BUT LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND SOME
OUTSIDE THE HEAVY RAIN CORES. NEW FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY BUT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS NOT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MINOR LAND
SLIDES ON RECENT BURN SCARS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. MAX TEMPERATURES
COOL OFF A BIT FRIDAY...DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93/98




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