Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 232100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NEVADA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT A BREAK OF DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AND THE RAIN CONTINUES...

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
PLENTIFUL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA.
SHOWERS ARE NUMEROUS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ALL
ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH/SW ON KLRX RADAR. SOME ISOLATED CELLS ARE
QUITE INTENSE, WITH ONE SHOWER PRODUCING ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
IN ONLY A FEW MINUTES HERE AT THE OFFICE, AND COVERING THE GROUND
WITH PEA-SIZED HAIL. PLENTY OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN
IDAHO, SO EXPECTED NUMEROUS/LIKELY COVERAGE WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. WITH SOILS QUITE WET AND RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY
INTENSE, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE TO SCATTERED BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS AGAIN VERY MILD, WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HOLDING US IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW MAKES MINIMAL PROGRESS EASTWARD, ENDING UP NEAR
RAWLINS WYOMING BY 5 PM. AS SUCH, ANOTHER ROUND OF WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION IS DEPICTED BY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE.
INCREASED RAIN COVERAGE FOR ALL ZONES TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NEAR TONOPAH. JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. 12Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, NO, BUT
REMEMBER, WE NEED IT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING, AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING,
AND OBVIOUSLY VERY WET SOILS, INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY MORNING.

MEMORIAL DAY...A SMALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM NEVADA INTO THE PLAINS, AND A NEW LOW FORMS OVER
THE PACIFIC NW. IN BETWEEN, A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRINGS RISING
HEIGHTS AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NEVADA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NOTICEABLE WARMING AND SOME DRYING FOR MOST ZONES. IN
FACT, ALL MODELS DEPICT A WELL-PRONOUNCED DRY PERIOD FROM 5-11 AM
MEMORIAL DAY MORNING, SO ACTUALLY REDUCED POPS TO A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL PRESENT
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE PAC NW
TROUGH, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80 AFTER NOON. NOTICEABLY WARMER MONDAY, WITH MOST
VALLEYS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S.  TURNER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. TROF OVER NEVADA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF POPS OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO UTAH THURSDAY WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEN RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RIDGE BECOMES DIRTY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES MEANING A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER....OTHERWISE DRY AND CONTINUED
WARM WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87


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