Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 232156
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
256 PM PDT Sun Oct 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture moving up from the south will bring some
showers to east central Nevada tonight. These showers will spread
across the rest of eastern Nevada on Monday with an isolated
afternoon thunderstorm possible. A few showers will linger across
northern Nevada on Tuesday, then dry Wednesday and Thursday.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Showers over southern CA
this afternoon will move northward into east central NV tonight.
short wave lifting out of offshore upper low will bring scattered
showers to all but the western half of Humboldt county on Monday.
Models showing some instability Monday afternoon so an isolated
thunderstorm is possible. Breezy Monday afternoon most areas with
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. Short wave exits Monday night. A
few showers will linger across northern NV on Tuesday due to a
moist southwest flow off the Pacific. With the mild southwest flow
high temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will remain in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday
Large scale long wave trough off the West Coast remains the
dominant feature through the long term period. Mild southwest flow
over Nevada prevails with well above normal temps, notably the
overnight minimums that stay above freezing. In some instances,
nighttime temps may not fall below 40F, quite significant when mid
20s should be common. Periodic cloud cover (mostly of the
cirrus or dense cirrostratus variety) may impede high temperature
potential a bit. A mostly cloud free day may sneak in on Wed and
Thu and valley temps may jump into the lower to mid 70s.
Embedded short wave energy ejecting northeast of the mean trough
position will be impacting the Pacific Northwest coast. Towards
the end of the week, the medium range models show reasonable
consensus that an offshore closed low circulation becomes an open
wave as it ejects ENE across the Great Basin. The precise timing
of this ejection depends on upstream energy diving into the mean
long wave trough position. The most likely time frame that
scattered showers will occur is around Friday. Additional Pacific
energy may move into Nevada next Sunday, although this is less
certain. The biggest takeaway for the long term period, continued
mild weather through the last week of October with a threat of
showers centered on Friday.
.AVIATION...A mid level disturbance skirts southeast Nevada this
evening with showers in the vicinity of KELY. Showers expand
northward overnight and will reach the KEKO vicinity after 12Z.
Cigs are expected to stay VFR for all TAF sites, but mountain tops
will be obscured from passing showers. Isolated thunder is
possible, but will preclude from the TAFS as confidence is low for
KEKO or KELY. Dry conditions are expected at KMWC and KTPH,
although showers will develop north of KTPH.
.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture moving up from the south will bring some
showers to east central NV tonight. These showers will spread
across the rest of eastern and northern NV on Monday with the
exception of fire zone 467. Some instability will be present
Monday afternoon so an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Showers
decreasing Monday evening. A few showers will linger across the
north Tuesday due to a moist southwest flow from the Pacific. Dry
Wednesday and Thursday before a Pacific storm spreads showers
across the region on Friday.