Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 232239
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AXIS ACROSS NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER
60S. RIDGE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRUSH FAR NORTHERN NV FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY, TONIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY
THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE...AS 500MB SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE
BY SATURDAY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
FAMILIES. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A DIRTY RIDGE TO THE REGION
ON TURKEY DAY...WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND
ZERO TRAVEL CONCERNS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A PACIFIC 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OFF
THE COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. PACIFIC MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE BY SATURDAY...WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH CALIFORNIA. BY SUNDAY THERE
IS EVEN BIGGER SPREAD ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE TROUGH WILL BE...BUT
POPS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ON SUNDAY
FOR THE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/95/95



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