Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 242205
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
305 PM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather will continue through the long Memorial
Day weekend. There will be showers and thunderstorms around each
afternoon and evening.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. IR satellite imagery
shows an upper low pressure center circulating over Canada north
of Montana and the Dakotas with the mean trough axis extending
southwest all the way back through northern California. There is a
weak H7 low circulation over the north-central part of the state
so mountaintop winds are variable in direction. There is a stacked
low about 150 miles off the central California coast providing a
moist feed into Nevada from a southerly direction. An area of
showers developed and moved east of the Ruby Mountains early this
morning then trailed off over northeast Elko County before noon,
at which time development began along the highway 50 corridor.
Thunderstorm activity began around 930 am local time in Northern
Nye and White Pine Counties. There was some rotation noticed in
the storms that developed and movement was hard to predict but the
storms that did develop maintained beyond pulse-type. We had a
couple of pea-size hail reports. The models are in good general
agreement with the synoptic pattern for the short term period
however there is bound to be some local disagreement due to the
complicated pattern of short waves being introduced by the models.
A general trough pattern will persist across the LKN CWFA. Central
low pressure over Canada will show little movement, perhaps
drifting south into the northern CONUS. A ridge over the central
U.S. will provide enough blocking that the trough axis will pivot
around this central point. The low off the California coast will
move inland, cross California and reposition near the 4-corners
area of the country by late Thursday. Showers will occur daily
with afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible each day.
Instability is widespread currently and will be so again tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Cape values are not very high but are
relatively higher over Elko County. There is little or no shear
today but weak shear is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. There
could be a few severe storms Wednesday. Looking for the heaviest
rain bands to extend from about Eureka through Elko County again
tomorrow early on then translate east in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...Mean upper trough
remains over the interior western U.S. through at least Monday.
After that the GFS shifts a Pacific upper ridge inland while the
ECM keeps the ridge in the Pacific. Best to stay with the ECM`s
mean trough over the western U.S. until both models move it out.
Most significant short wave trough will rotate through the larger
trough on Saturday, mainly to the north of the forecast area but
close enough for a chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
Other embedded short waves look too weak for showers. Also, the
long wave trough is forecast to gradually weaken Sunday through
Tuesday suggesting a gradual warming and drying trend during that
.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Scattered to numerous -SHRA/-TSRA
through 04Z with local MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration
in clouds and pcpn. Showers decreasing after 04Z with scattered
to broken clouds continuing 10-12KFT MSL. SWLY surface winds 5-15
kts, increasing to 20-25 kts at 10kFT MSL.