Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
900 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will lift off the NC coast tonight,
and a cold front will move through Wednesday morning. Areas of
low pressure will move northeast across the offshore waters
Thursday through Saturday. A dry cold front will move through
Sunday, bringing a shot of much colder air. High pressure will
build in from the west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
As of 9 PM Tue...No big changes with update. Large area of
showers across E SC will work its way into E NC after midnight,
with scattered to isolated showers until then. Isolate thunder
will be confined to the immediate coast.

Previous discussion... As of 630 PM Tue...Isolated to
scattered showers continue to march onshore early this evening.
Increasing pop trend through the overnight still looks good,
becoming categorical eastern 2/3 of the area late tonight. Have
added some patchy light fog in for the early morning hours
around sunrise, as departing rain and light to calm winds allows
a window for some patchy development around the morning commute
time.

Previous discussion... As of 215 PM Tue...Latest sfc
analysis shows high pressure extending over the area from the
east this afternoon, as weak low begins to develop off the SE
coast. Latest radar imagery shows isolated light showers
beginning to develop off the NC coast this afternoon...with
satellite showing lower clouds increasing along and east of
Highway 17. Weak low will lift NE and off the NC coast
overnight. Showers will gradually overspread the area from the
SW overnight, with best chances between 05-12z. Will continue
likely to categorical pops. Instability looks like it will
remain offshore, but an isolated storm could be possible along
the coast. Mild overnight with clouds and precip, lows in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tue...The low will lift quickly to the NE Wed,
with a cold front moving through from the west Wednesday
morning. Showers will end quickly from west to east Wed morning
as the low departs with decreasing clouds and increasing
northerly winds. Temps shld reach low to upper 60s Wed before
better CAA kicks in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 am Tue... Dry and cool Wed night as high pres builds
in with lows mid/upr 30s inland to mostly 40s beaches. Still
some uncertainty for the Thu thru Sat period however bulk of
models now keeping most of the region dry with just some shra
grazing the coast at times. The GFS looks like a wet outlier For
Thu/Thu evening showing numerous shra over the region. Cont to
lean toward ECMWF with just very small pop near cst Late Thu
into Fri and again late Fri night into Sat as last of the weak
lows lifts NE offshore. Cool temps cont Thu and Fri with N/NE
winds highs mostly in the 50s. On Sat will warm a bit ahead of
approaching cold front with lower 60s expected.

Strong cold front will cross Sat night with cold high pres
building in from the W Sun and Mon. Highs Sun will be in the 50s
and looks like mainly 40s to around 50 for Mon. Lows will
likely drop to or below freezing most inland areas Sun Night.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 630 PM Tue...VFR conditions will continue through
tonight. An increase and lowering of clouds to MVFR expected
late tonight and esp early Tue. Could see some light fog too so
have added patchy br mention in the TAF`s. Isolated to
scattered showers this evening, then increasing in coverage
overnight. Conditions will improve back to VFR late morning.
Expect light and variable winds through the overnight. As the
cold front moves through, winds will become northwest Wednesday
morning.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 210 am Tue...Mainly VFR expected Thu night thru Sat with
deeper moisture and shower threat expected mainly E of taf sites
with PC to mclr skies expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 215 PM Tue...Latest obs show variable winds generally
NE/SE 5-15 kt, with seas 1-2 ft. Flow becomes more SE/S tonight,
and could see some gusts to 20 kt across the outer waters as a
weak area of low pressure lifts NE off the NC coast. Wavewatch
and NWPS show seas building to 3-5 ft tonight. The low will
quickly lift NE Wed, as a cold front moves through in the
morning. Strong northerly winds will develop Wed afternoon 20-25
kt, peaking Wed evening, with seas building to 6-9 ft. Issued
SCA for the coastal waters and sounds beginning early Wed
afternoon.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 210 am Tue...Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts Wed night. NE winds
15 to 20 kts early Thu will grad diminish to 10 to 15 kts late
Thu and cont in that range thru most of Fri. Winds will become
WSW 10 to 15 kts Sat ahead of approaching cold front.

Seas will build to 5 to 8 feet Wed evening. Seas will slowly
subside to 4 to 6 feet Thu and be mainly 3 to 5 feet Thu night
and Fri. On Sat seas will be in the 2 to 4 foot range.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ130-131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 5 PM EST Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to noon EST Thursday
     for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/CQD


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