Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191112
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
612 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue off the coast through mid week and
produce a very warm southerly flow across the region. A
weakening cold front will move into the area late week then
dissipate or lift north next weekend. Another front will move
through the area late this weekend or early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 610 AM Monday...The synoptic scale pattern which has been
advertised for several days is now coming to fruition with an
anomalously strong and persistent upper ridge building over the
southeast. This will help to anchor surface high pressure over
the Atlantic producing a southerly flow of warm air across the
region for much if not all of the upcoming week. Today, a
coastal trough/warm front will begin to shift north across the
area with winds veering from East this morning to Southeast by
evening. Associated warm advection and low level convergence
will combine with very moist air with PW values forecast to be
around 1.5" and lead to widespread clouds and scattered showers
especially across the northern zones this morning. Will use a
blend of MOS PoPs with 20% southeast coast and 50% north. Clouds
will limit heating but SE flow and some filtered sunshine
should allow high temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower
70s inland and low to mid 60s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 610 AM Monday...Winds will continue to veer to the South
tonight around the offshore high. The low levels will remain
moist while the mid levels really dry out after 00Z. Despite
this drying, the models continue to generate very light QPF
amounts tonight (a few hundreths of an inch), while the GFS and
ECMWF MOS are in very good agreement with 20-40% PoPs suggesting
a shallow low QPF precipitation event. In addition would expect
widespread low clouds to develop with the potential for dense
advection fog to form inland and along the coast. Could see
widespread visibilities below 1/2 mile develop by late evening. Lows
will be mild for February in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Mon...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be
the dominant feature through late week, supporting temperatures
well above normal. A slow moving cold front will approach the
region from the west mid to late week, possibly moving through
the region late week. Another front is progged to push through
the area late this weekend into early next week. See Climate
section below for temp records.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The high will cont off the coast
through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast. Mainly dry Tue thru
Wed Night with area in warm sector with little to no forcing,
though an isolated shower will be possible along the coast, esp
early Tuesday. Very mild this period with highs 75 to 80 dgr
range Tue and Wed. Beaches as usual will be cooler with mainly
upper 60s to low 70s. Areas of low clouds and fog will be
possible each night/early morning.

Thursday through Monday...A weak cold front is forecast to push
southward into the area Thu afternoon and Thu night, then wash
out or lift back to the north Friday. Isolated showers possible
Thu through Sat, and kept small pops, with front over region
but moisture and forcing look weak with little in the way of
rainfall expected. At this time best chance looks like late Thu
into Fri, mainly across the northern forecast area. Highs Thu
will again reach 75 to 80 inland with warm sector conditions.
Bit cooler Fri...however hgts/thicknesses remain high so mild
temps cont with upr 60s/lower 70s inland to lower/mid 60s along
the coast. High pressure offshore strengthens over the area Sat
and Sun. Increasing heights/thicknesses and low level SW flow
Sat and Sun, support highs upper 60s along the coast, and
mid/upper 70s inland. The next front approaches the area
Sunday, likely moving through Sun night into early Mon. The GFS
is much more progressive, while the EC is slower and looks to
stall it off the coast early next week. Scattered showers
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 610 AM Monday...Expect prevailing MVFR and isolated IFR
conditions in ceilings to develop across the TAF sites this
morning then persist through most if not all of the afternoon.
Think there will be a brief period 20Z-02Z when conditions could
briefly become VFR then around 3Z there is a strong signal in
the guidance for LIFR/IFR conditions to develop in fog and low
ceilings as the low levels become saturated in the southerly
flow around Atlantic high pressure.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Mon...Widespread sub-VFR conditions expected early
Tuesday, with likely IFR fog and stratus. Expect ceilings and
vsbys to improve to VFR by afternoon. Forecast soundings and
guidance support low ceilings and areas of fog developing each
night/early morning, with widespread sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 610 AM Monday...Winds will veer from NE/E around 15 kt
this morning to SE this afternoon and then S 10-15 kt tonight in
response to high pressure off the coast. Lingering 3-5 ft seas
this morning will subside to 2-4 ft this afternoon and continue
tonight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Mon...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be
the dominant feature through most of the period. A weak cold
front is forecast to push south into the area late Thursday and
Thursday night, before washing out or lifting back to the north
Friday. S/SW winds 5-15 kt expected Tue through Thu, with seas
2-4 ft. A brief period of northerly winds likely Thu night
into Friday, before returning to S/SW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temps could approach records this week.

Record High Temps 2/20 (Tuesday)

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
Cape Hatteras      71/1994
Greenville         81/1991
Jacksonville       82/1991
Kinston            81/1991
Morehead City      73/1994
New Bern           81/1991

Record High Temps 2/21 (Wednesday)

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
Cape Hatteras      75/1989
Greenville         80/1922
Jacksonville       78/2011
Kinston            79/2011
Morehead City      71/1971
New Bern           79/2011

Record High Temps 2/22 (Thursday)

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
Cape Hatteras      76/1971
Greenville         80/2003
Jacksonville       77/2003
Kinston            78/2003
Morehead City      72/1971
New Bern           80/1980

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX



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