Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
NEARS. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS AFTER THE TAF PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP



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