Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201442
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONT TO INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE AXIS OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY INLAND AND LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
WILL CONT KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 65
INLAND AND UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S CST. TIGHT GRDNT N OF THE LOW WILL
KEEP GUSTY NNE WINDS OVER THE AREA ESPCLY CST. WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO WIND ADVRY OBX/DOWNEAST CARTERET TODAY BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
JUST BELOW AND CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONT TO SLOWLY SLIDE
FURTHER E WITH DRYING DEEP INLAND. FOR THE CST WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS EARLY DIMINISHING TO CHC LATE. SHLD REMAIN CLOUDY CST...FOR
INLAND AREAS WOULD THINK STRATUS WOULD FORM IF DID GET BREAKS IN
CLOUDS SO WILL STILL SHOW MCDY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING MUCH WITH UPR 40S DEEP INLAND TO MID 50S BEACHES. NNE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SUN...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE OFF THE SE COAST MONDAY. LINGERING CHANCES OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY MONDAY AS A PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATE ABOUT THE STACKED
LOW. MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING IN EARNEST PARTICULARLY
OVER INLAND SECTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/70 DEEP INLAND AND LOW/MID
60S ALONG THE COAST MON.

MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN
GFS/NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MOVING OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REMAINING LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS MID 60S/LOW 70S WED WILL RISE TO
LOW 70S/80 BY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY A WEAK FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY. WILL CAP POPS AT LOW END CHANCE
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUN...LOWER LVLS HAVE DRIED A BIT EARLY THIS MORN WITH
VFR AT TAFS SITES. FCST SOUNDING INDICATE INVERSION WILL SHARPEN
A BIT TODAY AND LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER CIGS RETURNING...FOR NOW WILL
SHOW MVFR. OVERNIGHT THE INVERSION WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND WILL GO
WITH SOME IFR NEAR CST LATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. NNE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THRU THE PERIOD PEAKING THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SUN...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD HANG ON LONGER FOR EWN/OAJ...MAYBE LATE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MAY AGAIN LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH SCA ALL WTRS NOW
AND MARGINAL GALES CNTRL/SOUTH. ALL MDLS SHOW WINDS INCREASING A
BIT TODAY WITH 20 TO 30 KTS ALL WTRS AND POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO 40 KT
GUSTS ESPCLY CNTRL/SRN TIER INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. WILL CONT ALL
HEADLINES WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT OUTER WTRS TODAY...LOCALLY
16 FT NEAR DIAMOND BUOY. THESE LARGE SEAS WILL CONT TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW DRIFT FURTHER E AND HIGH TO
THE N WEAKENS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SUN...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY WITH
LOW OFF THE SE COAST. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E AND THE HIGH WEAKENS
WINDS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS 5-11FT EARLY MON WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 6FT BY
TUE MORNING. NW WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EARLY TUE WILL BE VEERING
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW FLOW TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WED AND THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 245 AM SUN...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS NRN WTRS TODAY SEAS
IN SURF ZONE SHLD GRAD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT...SO CONT HIGH SURF
ADVRY N OF HAT. WATERS LVLS WILL CONT TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL SRN PAMLICO SOUND WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW SO CONT COASTAL
FLOOD ADVRY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ093>095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





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