Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 101159
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN
U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF
COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WRN AND NRN SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS
AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST
PARTIAL INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
CAA...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS 41-45 INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.


/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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