Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 012101 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
401 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...STATIONARY FRONT HAS DRIFTED INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR CALM TO
LIGHT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS SHOW DEEPEST RH AND
LIFT THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WELL-
DEFINED THETA-E RIDGE ALONG THE COAST IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS DECREASE AFTER AROUND 06Z MONDAY AS FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN TAPER BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30% POPS IN THE MORNING
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 THEN DRY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK AS TRANSIENT
SYSTEMS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE WILL BRING SPRINGLIKE WARMTH DURING MIDWEEK
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP ON THURSDAY. UNSEASONABLE
COLD RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACRS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALL
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER CLEARING
SKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
HIGH PRES WEDGE AND HAVE FAVORED THE NAM SOLUTION/COOLER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO SCOUR OUT THE COLDER
AIR TOO QUICKLY. LOWS WILL FALL AOB FREEZING OVER DEEPER INLAND
AREAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS CUD BE AN ISSUE FOR PTYPE IF
WAA INDUCED PRECIP DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH REACHES INLAND AREAS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW BUT
MODEL ERRORS IN DEVELOPING PRECIP TOO LATE IN OVERUNNING SITUATIONS
(LIKE THIS MORNING) MAKE IT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE FORECAST AREA. LIKE TODAY, MAY
AGAIN BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS AND
SURGING INTO THE 50S (POSSIBLE 60S) AT THE COAST. WEDGE LOOKS TO
FINALLY ERODE LATE WED OR OVERNIGHT WED AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES MAY BE SMALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES (FOR
A CHANGE) ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING ONSHORE BREEZES. MODELS ALSO TRENDING LATER WITH RAIN CHANCES
TO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS ANA-FRONT TYPE PRECIP SETS UP
BEHIND THE INCOMING SFC BNDRY.

SFC COLD FRONT DROPS GRADUALLY THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU AND BRINGS
THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO
FROZEN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATER THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF
SNOW AND SLEET. TOO EARLY TO GET MUCH DETAIL ABOUT POSSIBLE
ACCUMLATIONS AS YET BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THRU QUICKLY WHICH
WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.

PRECIP ENDS LATE THU/THU EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SATURDAY/SUNDAY. LOWS THU AND FRIDAY WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 PM SUN...GENERALLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THEN WEST
MONDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTH 10-15 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS OAJ AND EWN
IN THE MORNING THEN DRY ALL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER AROUND 15Z.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...DRIER AIR SPREADS IN WITH VFR EXPECTED MON EVE.
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WITH
SCT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD CVRG
OF RAIN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING
LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 4 PM SUN...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST DRIFTS INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT SEAS FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. AS FLOW BECOMES WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
ZONES MONDAY WITH FLOW VEERING FROM WEST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS THEN DEVELOP IN THE WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH SEAS PSBL 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS.
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE MORN THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S
LATE TUE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY TUE THEN RAMP BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING HIGHEST
FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND
CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO
9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N WINDS THU
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET. WINDS/SEAS SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC



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