Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 282306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM...STATIONARY FRONT CONTS NEAR ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH
CONTD STRONG HEATING TO THE S WITH LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. THESE
WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH MID/UPR 60S DEWPTS ARE PRODUCING SFC
BASED CAPES AOA 2000. SEA BREEZE INTERACTING WITH BNDRY GENERATED
SVR STORMS ACROSS TYRRELL AND HYDE COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVE.
APPEARS STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND AND WILL LIKELY CONT TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG LTR
THIS EVE. WILL KEEP GOOD CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS INLAND AREAS
WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED SRN CST IN WAKE OF SEA
BREEZE. STRONG TO ISOLD SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
STNRY BNDRY ACRS NRN SXNS AND ACRS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES
THRU MID EVE.

OVERNIGHT THE FRONT TO THE N WILL DRIFT S AND THIS COMBINED WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CONT GOOD CVRG OF
SHRA AND STORMS THRU THE EVENING. CONT PREV FCST OF LIKELY POPS
CNTRL AND N WITH CHC S THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP SHLD GRAD MOVE S
AND E LATER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 50S NE TO LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL NOSE IN FROM THE N WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS WILL GRAD LIFT/ERODE
WITH PC TO MSUNNY SKIES FROM LATE MORN THRU THE AFTN. WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH NE WINDS....HIGHS MID 60S NE CST TO UPR 70S/LOW
80S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED FCST
CONFIDENCE FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING BETTER
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BUT GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN
FAST FLOW PATTERN...RESULTING IN DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL BNDRY
PLACEMENT. WILL GENERALLY STICK TO PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS
INDICATING A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR FRI NIGHT
AND DROPPED SLGT CHC POPS THAT PERIOD. ALSO DROPPED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR ERN SECTIONS SAT BUT KEPT CHC POPS INLAND AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT QPF THREAT TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS 55-60...AND HIGHS SAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT MID-UPR 60S NRN OBX.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED RECENT TRENDS
OF QUICKER RETURN OF SHRT WV ENERGY FROM W...LEADING TO SFC HIGH
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N MOVING OFFSHORE FASTER SAT NIGHT AND
RETURN OF WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
TO NW AND N. SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS TO N AND NE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO AREA BY LATE MONDAY. KEPT LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS INLAND OF COAST SAT NIGHT...THEN CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS FOR TSTMS SUN-MON. ADJUSTED
TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGS EACH PERIOD WITH RETURN OF SRLY FLOW. LOWS
UPR 50S TO LOW 60S SAT NIGHT...AND 60-65 SUN NIGHT. HIGHS AROUND
80 INLAND SUN AND LOWER 80S MON...WITH 70S OBX BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PER ABOVE...LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THIS
PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONGER SHRT WV ENERGY PUSHING COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF
AREA TUE-WED WITH COASTAL LOW PRES ON THU. ECMWF INITIALLY WEAKER
AND STALLS FRONT NEAR COAST BUT THEN FASTER WITH ADDITIONAL SHRT
WV ENERGY WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS FROM W LATE TUE INTO WED
NIGHT...THEN DRYING THU. BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO BROAD BRUSH
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TO
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS AND WPC SOLUTIONS WITH FRONT STALLED NEAR
COAST AND WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOW TO
MID 70S EXCEPT 60S OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THIS EVENING WITH ANY SUB
VFR ASSOC WITH PASSING CONVECTION. WHERE STORMS DO CROSS GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN GOOD INSTABILITY OVER
REGION. LATER TONIGHT THE FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED NEAR ALBEMARLE
SOUND WILL DRIFT S AND EXPECT AREA OF IFR STRATUS TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT SPREADING S THRU THE TAFS 07Z TO 10Z. THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER THRU 12 TO 13Z THEN GRAD LIFT AND SCT OUT TO VFR LATE MORN.
VFR REST OF THE PERIOD WITH PC TO MCLR SKIES AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN
FROM THE N.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CIGS PSBL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH LOW LVL MSTR UNDER INVERSION. VFR EXPECTED SAT
AFTN INTO SUN BUT WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AND LCL SUB-VFR MAINLY
INLAND AND N. MORE WDSPRD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WITH PERIODS
OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SUB-VFR MAY LINGER INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE
WITH FRONT STALLED NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. STALLED FRONT NEAR ALBEMARLE
SOUND WILL DRIFT S CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GRAD BECOME MORE N TO NE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. LATER FRI AS HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE N...NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET
THRU THE PD...COULD BE A 5 FOOTER THIS EVENING OUTER CNTRL WTRS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT LEADS TO SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE WATERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEATHER WITH POST
FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT WITH SPEEDS BELOW 20
KT. WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO SRLY BY SUN MORNING...WITH SW WINDS
15-20 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. LOW CONFIDENCE
FCST FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. LEANED TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH FRONT STALLED NEAR
COAST AND LIGHTER WINDS.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE 4-5 FT SEAS NRN WATERS WITH NRLY WINDS FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...AND 4-5 FT MOST OUTER WATERS WITH SW WINDS SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...RF/JBM


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