Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 16Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL





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