Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR WAS TO UPDATE POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...DECREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
SHIFTING MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE OUTER
BANKS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AND OFF THE COAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN E OF THE TAF SITES. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CLOUDS MOVE OFF THE COAST...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE/SREF
PROBS/NARRE AND OBS TO THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MID MORNING ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY
WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. LATEST OBS
SHOW NLY WINDS 5-15KKT AND SEAS 2-3FT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE
FL/GA COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...JBM/SK/CQD





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