Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
946 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A cold front will cross the area tonight and Thursday. Strong high
pressure will build in from the north Friday through Sunday, while
an area of low pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary
off the Southeast coast.


As of 940 PM Wednesday...Axis of heavy precipitation now along
the southern coast and will be transitioning off the coast over
the next few hours. Adjusted PoPs to categorical along the
southern coast accordingly. Otherwise will still see a chance of
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as the
front continues to cross the area overnight. The cold front is
forecast to be offshore between 09z and 12z Thursday morning.
Expect low clouds to persist through the night in the vicinity
of the front and some patchy fog. It will be a little cooler
tonight behind the front with lows in the lower 70s inland to
mid 70s coast.


As of 305 PM Wednesday...With the cold front lingering over the
far southern portion of the CWA or just south, a more stable
airmass with slightly cooler temperatures and slightly lower
dewpoints can be expected for Thursday. Still tricky as to how
far south the front actually gets, and will keep fairly high
PoPs through midday Thursday and will maintain slight chance of
thunder over the far southern zones, while the northern portion
remains more showery in a more stable airmass. High temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler with low/mid 80s for most of the
CWA Thursday.


As of 3 pm Wed...Below normal temps expected through the
period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with
the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast,
though much uncertainty remains regarding this system.

Thursday through Friday night...The slow moving front will
continue to push off the south coast Thursday night. Scattered
showers and isolated storms will continue, tapering off from NW
to SE. Strong high pressure will build in from the north
beginning Friday, with broad upper troughing across the area,
while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast.
Isolated showers Fri and Fri night forecast to remain over the
southern coastal waters. Depending on the track and strength of
the developing low off FL this weekend.

Saturday through Wednesday...Models continue to show possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week...though
much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given
how far out in time and varying model solutions/lack of run to
run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the FL coast
Sat night and Sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through Wed. Precip
chances increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward.
Models also continue to show the remnants of Harvey interacting
with a frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast region, and pushing
northeast. A lot of uncertainty with how this system will
evolve as well.


Short Term /through 18Z Thu/
As of 740 PM Wednesday...Seeing MVFR to IFR conditions in a
large area of showers and thunderstorms slowly transitioning
east with the cold front. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to
develop with low clouds behind the front and some patchy fog
given heavy rains this evening. Low stratus will lift through
the day. MVFR conditions could linger longer through the morning
and into afternoon than is currently reflected in the TAF.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 3 pm Wed...Scattered convection will end from northwest to
southeast Thursday evening. VFR/Dry conditions forecast through
the rest of the period for ISO and PGV. Isolated showers could
return for EWN and OAJ Sunday into Monday. Surface winds NE
around 10 kt Friday, NE 10-15 kt Saturday, NE 15-20 kt Sunday
and Monday.


Short Term /Tonight and Thursday/...
As of 940 PM Wednesday...Made minor tweaks to winds and seas
utilizing high res models and based on latest observations.
Aside from shifting winds with outflow boundaries from
thunderstorms, expect southwest winds 10-15 knots from around
Hatteras south, with a few higher gusts at times. Winds will be
west shifting to northwest and eventually north late tonight across
northern waters as the front passes. Seas are in the 2-4 foot
range and will remain there overnight. The cold front should
gradually move across the CWA and offshore between 09z and 12z
with winds become W/NW. Gradient becomes weaker behind the front
with winds generally right around 10 knots with gusts to 15
knots. Waves will remain 2 to 4 feet Thursday.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 pm Wed...A prolonged period of NE winds 10-20 kt
expected behind the front Thursday night into Friday, strong
winds and rough seas developing this weekend and continuing into
next week. SCA conditions likely to develop this weekend and
continue into next week.

A slow moving front will continue to push off the south coast
Thursday night, with winds gradually becoming northeast. Strong
high pressure will build in from the north Thu night through
Saturday. NNE winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft through Fri.

Models are still showing the potential for tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model
solutions. Strong E/NE winds and rough seas are expected late
weekend into next week. Though given the uncertainty in how this
system will evolve, mariners should continue to monitor this
situation over the next several days.




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