Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 012330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. ONLY
NOTED A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. CONVECTION OCCURRING TO
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ON OUR DOORSTEP. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MODELS ALSO
INDICATING THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MORNING HOURS. SO EXPECT A QUITE NIGHT OVERALL WITH CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 70 FURTHER
INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SINCE CLOUD COVER
DOES SEEM TO BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA A BIT EARLIER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT MORE INSULATION. SO
WITHOUT CLOUD BREAKS TEMPS INLAND MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO LOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD TROF WILL
APPROACH TOMORROW AS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING WITH SFC HEATING THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MODEST...AND BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER STORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 2
INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURE RISE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...LONG TERM PORTION WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS VORT CENTERS
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW  MAKING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
POPS DIFFICULT. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS
EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE A LITTLE BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM STORMS ARE MIGRATING
TOWARD EASTERN NC. EXPECT SCT LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BKN
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG/LOW STRATUS
FORMATION, THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY SW
WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE MORNING WITH CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND THIS
TIME. VCSH/VCTS MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL COVERAGE
STILL IN QUESTION.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS WITH LOCALLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY...
DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. SEAS 2 TO 5 FEET
WITH SW WIND 10-15KT . SW WINDS PICKING UP AS SFC TROF SHARPENS
INLAND WITH SPEEDS MAINLY INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DURING THE
EVENING. THE SW WINDS WILL AGAIN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
THU AFTERNOON.

SEAS HAVE DROPPED BLO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND
LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS REMAINING BLO 6 FT UNTIL LATER
THU AFTERNOON. WILL DROP THE CURRENT SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS, AND
POST ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD TO 6 FT OVER OUTER WATERS SOUTH OFF CAPE
LOOKOUT BY LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER. WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING...AND THAT MAINLY IN
THE OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT WATERS. SEAS 3-6 FEET SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4 FEET NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/LEP
MARINE...BTC/HSA/LEP


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