Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280508
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
108 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend across the area tonight,
while an area low pressure slowly moves northwest towards South
Carolina. The low will weaken to a trof of low pressure along the
coast this weekend and linger through early next week. High
pressure will build in by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1 am Sat...Little change for the overnight update, just
tweaked temps to follow trends. Latest analysis shows sfc high
pressure and ridging aloft...with weak low north of the Bahamas.
Beginning to see clouds approach from the southeast. Think the
overnight should remain dry, with precip chances increasing along
the southern coastal area towards sunrise Sat morning. Could see
some areas of patchy fog develop overnight/early Sat morning
inland with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Overnight lows in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 315 pm Fri...Ridge continues to weaken over ENC as area of
low pressure approaches the SE US. Challenging precip forecast
Sat with increasing moisture around the low. The GFS continues to
be more wetter developing widespread showers, while the ECMWF/NAM
and high res models are drier keeping the bulk of the precip south
and offshore. Adjusted previous pops slightly, increasing along
the southern coast and lowering across the northern forecast area.
Could see a sharpened precip gradient develop...with scattered
showers and storms moving in off the waters. Periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall possible as PWAT values surge to around 2 inches
by the afternoon. Low level thickness values and increasing cloud
cover support highs 80-85 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Latest models continue in pretty good agreement
showing weak tropical/subtropical low to move slowly toward the
coast south of the area later this weekend then meandering N/NW
early next week. No real changes in current expected impacts for
eastern NC with enhanced chances of rain and a higher threat of
rip currents through midweek.

Saturday Night through Monday...27/12Z model suite continues to
show circulation moving inland across SC Saturday night/Sunday
then meandering very slowly north or northeastward early next
week. Steering flow is very weak and the low will likely evolve
into an open wave/trough feature by early next week. Regardless of
whether or not the system gets named, there will be rich and deep
southerly flow that will bring unseasonably high PW`s above 2
inches across the eastern seaboard, with the threat of periods of
heavy rain showers with localized flooding and eventual river
flooding developing. Temps will be uncomfortably warm and humid
due to TD`s in the 70s with highs in the 80s and lows in the low
70s.

Tuesday through Thursday...As the low slowly dissipates, rain
chances and coverage will diminish and pattern will become more
summery with typical diurnal convection across the interior with
lesser chances along the beaches. Temps will remain above climo
with hts/thicknesses above avg with highs well into the 80s and
lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Saturday/...
As of 1 am Sat...VFR condition expected most of the overnight
though patchy ground fog is possible late tonight. Cross-over
temps are not expected to be reached but dewpoints creep up
overnight and model sounding indicative of possible shallow ground
fog development. Currently mention MVFR vsbys with a sct 700 ft
deck as soundings dry quickly above this level. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see conditions to temporarily drop to IFR or even
LIFR. With significant drying above the boundary layer expect fog
to burn off quickly Saturday morning. High clouds in the morning
will give way to low to mid level clouds through the morning as
well as a chance for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
possible but best chance will be closer to the coast as it will
take some time to moisten the column.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Plenty of moisture with sct to numerous rain
showers with embedded tsra expected Sat night through Mon as a
weak tropical disturbance affects the area. Expect occasional MVFR
to IFR in the showers and low clouds through Monday. With low
levels very moist could also have some light fog develop during
the overnight period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 1 am Sat...Little changes for the overnight update. Latest
obs show mainly SE/E 5-10 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. High
pressure will weaken over the area tonight and Saturday as low
pressure slowly approaches the SE US. SE/E winds 5-10 knots and
slightly higher across the outer portions of the central/southern
waters overnight with seas building to 2-4 feet late. Predominant
easterly winds 10-15 knots Saturday, though below normal forecast
confidence continues regarding seas for Saturday. Local NWPS and
Wavewatch build seas to 6 feet, south of Hatteras, by late
Saturday morning with increasing swell from approaching low.
Capped seas at 5 feet for now, given the uncertainty on how much
swell will make it to the NC waters. Though there will be the
potential for seas to build to 6 feet on the outer waters

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Predominant SE winds through Sunday as weak
tropical low moves towards the SC coast. The winds will be SE
generally 10-15 knots. Wavewatch and SWAN continue to show
marginal 6 foot seas outer southern/central waters through Sunday
then subsiding 3-4 feet early to middle next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD/TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/TL
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/SK/CQD



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