Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
321 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

High pressure will build over the region tonight and Saturday with
another cold front crossing Sunday night into early Monday. High
pressure will rebuild over the area through the middle of next


As of 3 PM Friday...High pressure will build into the region from
the NW tonight. Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will lead
to good radiational cooling overnight. Temperature will drop into
the the mid/upper 40s inland to low 50s coast.


As of 3 PM Friday...Sfc high pressure will be centered over eastern
NC and slowly slide off the coast in the afternoon with winds
becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer as heights increase. Expect highs in the upper
70s inland and low/mid 70s along the coast.


As of 330 AM Friday...Dry regime expected to persist through
period with broad surface and upper ridge prevailing. Only
interruption will be a quick short wave trough and associated dry
cold front late Sunday night/early Monday. Temps expected to be
5-10 degrees above normal most of period.

Saturday-Sunday...Upper riding and winds becoming west-southwest
will lead to a warming trend over weekend. Increasing low level
thicknesses and downsloping winds will likely result in diurnal
temp rises near 30 degrees for inland sites Saturday with highs in
mid to upper 70s after lows in mid-upper 40s. Southwest winds will
keep temps in mid 50s to mid 60s Saturday night and push inland
highs into low-mid 80s Sunday.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Shearing short wave trough in W-NW flow
aloft will push a dry cold front through area late Sunday night
into early Monday. CAA will produce cooling trend but will be
offset by heights rebuilding quickly behind short wave, allowing
temps to remain above normal Monday-Tuesday with highs from mid
60s northern OBX to mid 70s inland.

Wednesday-Thursday...continued ridging surface and aloft will
produce warming trend for Wednesday with inland highs near 80
again. More vigorous short wave trough will approach from NW
Thursday with weak initial dry cold front passage indicated during
the day Thursday with only minor cooling of warm temps.


Short Term /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 130 PM Friday...High confidence of VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. A cold front has pushed through all TAF
sites late this morning/early afternoon as winds have shifted
northerly. Dry high pressure will build into the area and dominate
the region through tomorrow. Winds will be 5 to 10 knots this
afternoon and then becoming calm tonight. Winds will veer SE
Saturday afternoon as the high pushes farther south. Not
expecting fog development tonight under a dry airmass, but cannot
out a brief period of shallow fog for inland TAF sites

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 am Friday...VFR/dry weather forecast through the
period. High pressure across the southeast states will be the main
feature into Sunday. A dry cold front will pass through late
Sunday night, but little moisture associated with it so no rain is


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Latest buoy obs show N/NE winds 15 to 20 KT
north of Diamond Shoals and 5 to 10 kt south with seas 3-5 ft. The
front has pushed through most of the coastal waters this afternoon
and currently located over the southern waters. High pressure will
will continue to build tonight with N/NE winds 10-15 knots and
gradually diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight. Seas will be
2-4 ft across the southern waters and 3-5 ft northern waters
tonight. High pressure will gradually slide off the coast tomorrow
and winds will veer to the SW...increase 5-15 kt by in the
afternoon. Seas will mainly be 2-3 feet.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Surface high moving across waters from NW to
SE will result in light/variable winds Sat morning becoming W-SW
and increasing 10-15 KT Sat evening into Sunday. Dry cold front
will push through from NW-N late Sunday night with post-frontal
surge of N-NE winds around 15 KT moving across water Monday. NE
winds will gradually diminish Mon night into Tuesday.

Wave guidance in general agreement of heights mainly 2-3 feet
Sat-Sun, building to 4-5 feet Monday and subsiding to 2-3 feet




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