Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 161947
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front to the south will lift north and reach the southern
coast tonight. It will then lift out of the area Tuesday. A cold
front will move through from the northwest Wednesday, followed by
another cold front Friday. A strong frontal system will move
through Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 pm Mon...Stationary front to the south will lift north
tonight. Models show low-level isentropic lift along the coast
overnight so included slight chance Outer Banks and coastal
sections of Carteret and Onslow counties. Overnight lows will be
in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 245 pm Mon...Warm front will lift out quickly during the
day as southwest flow develops. Will carry a band of slight chance
PoPs across the far north in the morning. Models show showers
developing in the afternoon across the northern half ahead of cold
front approaching from the northwest. For now will carry only
slight chance. Much warmer high temps with southwest flow, in the
upper 50s/lower 60s northeast to upper 60s southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM Monday...Temps warm well above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, then remain slightly above normal Thursday through the
weekend. The precipitation forecast is starting to come into focus
as the 00Z models are in better agreement. It now looks like
Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday should be mainly dry with wet
weather expected Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.

Tuesday through Sunday...High pressure will shift off the coast
Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west late. Warm SW
return develops across the area Tuesday and continues into
Wednesday ahead of the front. Forcing is weak, but the northward
passage of a warm front across the area Tuesday combined with
marginal moisture will lead to a risk for isolated afternoon
showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the passage of
significant shortwave across the mid Atlantic which will push a
surface cold front across the area with the best chance for
widespread showers and perhaps a thunderstorm and PoPs will be
increased to likely. Well above normal Temps are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday in the prefrontal SW flow with highs around 70 both
days. Temps could be warmer if there is more insolation than is
currently expected.

Sunday into early next a stronger area of low pressure will
affect the area with showers redeveloping across the area. Heavy
rain and possible thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into
Monday as the system moves across the area. Temperatures are
expected to remain mild with highs in the 60s expected both days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 1200 PM Mon...MVFR conditions are currently present across
the airspace early this afternoon. Ceilings are currently
1500-2500 ft and will be holding steady through this evening.
Low clouds should retreat north for a portion of the overnight
before spreading back over the area near daybreak. Ceilings
Tuesday morning may be a bit lower than this afternoon, generally
1000-1500 ft. IFR ceilings are not likely at this point, but there
could be brief periods of IFR as ceilings approach 1000 ft. Some
patchy MVFR fog is likely across the region as winds calm and low
clouds retreat overnight. Any fog should dissipate after sunrise
Tuesday. Low clouds will hang on for most of the morning, and
will begin to retreat for good in the early afternoon when VFR
conditions will return.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 305 AM Monday...Sub-VFR conditions could occur Tuesday in a
surface in-situ damming pattern. Scattered to numerous showers are
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with sub VFR conditions.
Drier NW flow Thursday should lead to prevailing VFR conditions.
Scattered to numerous showers are again possible Friday with sub
VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tue/
As of 245 pm Mon...Light winds and seas in the short term. A warm
front to the south will reach the south coast tonight and lift
north of the waters Tuesday. North to northeast flow tonight will
become west to southwest Tuesday afternoon. Winds will average
5-10 knots with seas 1-3 feet.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 305 AM Monday...The passage of a cold front is expected to
produce SCA conditions late Tuesday night through Wednesday,
otherwise conditions will remain below advisory levels this
period. Tuesday light northerly winds will become light south
with 1 to 3 ft seas expected. Winds will become SW and increase
to 15 to 25 kt late Tuesday night and continue through late
Wednesday with seas building to 4 to 6 ft Wed/Wed night over the
outer southern and central waters and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Winds
are then forecast to shift to NW 10-20 kt behind the front Wed
night and Thu with 3-5 ft seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Thu.
Light/variable winds are expected Thursday night, then winds are
expected to become S/SE Friday and increase to 10 to 20 kt late
with seas building from 1 to 3 ft Thursday night to 2 to 4 ft
late Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SGK/JME
MARINE...HSA/JME



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.