Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 012026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 PM MON...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN ILM CWA. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LACK OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT...AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY
DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF HWY 17.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRING LIGHT MOIST SW FLOW.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THERMAL TROUGH DURNG THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND FEATURES INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES
INTO WED AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR WED INTO THU WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK SO SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND DRIVES A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST BARELY MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. FOR THE
FORECAST HEDGED TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND JUST THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
AND A SERIES OF SHRTWVS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WED WHEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE GREATEST. SLIGHT COOLING THURS WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
WILL SEE MORE OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
FOG/STRATUS WILL START TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...BRING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
2 TO 4 FEET...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 KT TUE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WED. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
WED THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI WITH SLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 RETURNING
TO ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND
3-4 FT...LOCALLY TO 5 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...INTO EARLY WED BUT
THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT THURS AND FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/BM









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