Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...UPDATED FOR VARIABLE WINDS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT THAT AREA HAS ALLOWED LOCAL WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL SECONDARY TROF MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW THROUGHOUT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BM






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