Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 262358
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
458 PM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably cool temperatures through midweek then
slight warming as a ridge builds Thursday and Friday. Slight
cooling back towards normal over the weekend as another weak
trough passes over the region. Dry weather the next 7 days with
night and morning coastal clouds followed by sunny afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 1:43 PM PDT Monday...Skies have turned mostly
sunny across the district with temperatures running in the upper
60s to 70s. The marine layer is poorly defined at around 2000 feet
with not too much warm air aloft. Northerly gradients from Arcata
to SFO are nearly flat with 4mb from SFO to Santa Barbara.
Onshore gradients currently at 2.1 mb will ramp up this evening
with weak cool advection and a shortwave trough moving onshore
over Oregon. This all sets the stage for a near or slightly below
normal temperature regime the next day or two. Some weak ridging
is forecast by Thursday which should allow inland temperatures to
nudge slightly warmer. However day to day changes will be subtle
but if anything should trend on the cool side of normal.

The 12z ecmwf brings another weak trough over Northern California
Saturday that will keep onshore flow and seasonably cool temps in
place. Looking ahead to the 4th of July holiday the pattern looks
zonal Sunday through Monday then a trough may dig into the Pacific
Northwest but the end result for the Bay Area would likely mean
some dry north winds that could keep marine clouds to a minimum.
Were heading towards the peak of the summer doldrums here with no
precipitation in the forecast with the marine layer likely to set
up long term residence for July and August.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:47 PM PDT Monday...Clouds have cleared out
very nicely this afternoon making way for clear skies across the
region. Low clouds are anticipated to return tonight under a deep
2000+ ft marine layer. Brisk onshore flow will prevail through
this evening then gradually diminish overnight.

Moderate confidence with regard to the timing of the cigs across
all terminals.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through this evening. MVFR cigs returning
between 03z-07z tonight. Cigs may be in and out at first, have
included a tempo group to reflect this. Cigs will fill in for the
night after 07z and persist till around 18z Tuesday morning.
Moderate and gusty winds around 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around
25 kt expected through late tonight. Winds will ease overnight
then strengthen once again to around 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt after
21z Tuesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through this evening. MVFR cigs returning
between 03z-07z tonight. Cigs may be in and out at first, have
included a tempo group to reflect this. Cigs will fill in for the
night after 07z and persist till 17z-18z Tuesday morning.
West winds around 10 kt expected through late tonight. Winds will
ease overnight then strengthen once again to around 12-15 kt
after 19z-20z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...as of 1:28 PM PDT Monday...High pressure remains
located over the Eastern Pacific. Locally gusty winds are forecast
along the immediate coast and in San Francisco Bay today. A
dominant southerly swell will persist into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: Canepa


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