Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 301141
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 AM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS....WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE HILLS THROUGH 10 AM AS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
EASE BY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM
AFTERNOON TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS TO THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SEASONABLE AND DRY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOW
DROPPING INTO NEVADA AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO SET UP
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HILLS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE NOW STARTING TO SHOW UP
IN THE DELTA WITH RAWS SITES UP IN THE HILLS REPORTING WIND GUSTS
FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. NORTHERLY GRADIENT FROM SFO TO ARCATA IS 8 MB
WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER THERE`S STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY BUT THOSE SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY MORNING. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC DOWNWARD MOTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING ADIABATIC WARMING TO THE BAY
AREA TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S AND MID
80S.

MORE OF AN EASTERLY WIND STAYS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM AND DRY AGAIN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM MODEL NOW SHOWS A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS COMING UP THE BIG
SUR COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME COASTAL COOLING BY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAYER OF STRATUS COVERS THE OCEAN AND
THEN SPREADS INLAND AS OFFSHORE FLOW ENDS.

ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER...MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

ANOTHER LATE SPRING TROUGH ARRIVES BY WEDS AND BRINGS A COOLING
TREND TO THE REGION. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS AS WELL LATER
WEDS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE STATE. ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SCATTERED/CONVECTIVE
BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO WIND OUT THE FIRST
WEEK OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:40 AM PDT SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR WITH A
FEW RAPIDLY SHRINKING PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AROUND THE MONTEREY
BAY THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO BECOME LIGHT BY
TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR AT KOAK POSBL THIS MORN AS LIGHT SFC WINDS
WILL CONTRAST WITH STRONGER WINDS 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE THE SFC.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT BY THE AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... SATELLITE SHOWING RAPID CLEARING OF MVFR
CIGS SO EXPECTING PREDOMINATELY VFR BY SUNRISE. LINGERING PATCH OF
MVFR POSBL OVER SAN BENITO COUNTY THRU 16Z. OTHERWISE... ONSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:35 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.  THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...BAY AREA HILLS ABOVE 1000 FT TIL 10 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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