Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 291944
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
244 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rains falling over eastern Middle Tennessee along and north
of interstate 40 with flooding being reported in some areas.
Activity has been generally pulling east but will take another
couple of hours or so before exiting the Upper Cumberland. Been
watching convective activity back in Arkansas that is out ahead of
short wave punching through eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas
at this time based on latest RAP. This activity will continue to
move east and be along the Mississippi River later this
afternoon. H-triple-R weakens this activity as it gets east of
Mississippi River. Will keep pops going this evening...higher in
the west...then a 30 pop overnight across the board. There`s so
many minor short waves that will traverse the area over the next
several days it will be hard to time and key on any of them so
will keep pops in the forecast over the weekend and right on
through much of next week. Also stationary surface frontal
boundary currently draped from southern Missouri across far
southern Illinois into southern Indiana will remain insitu into
next week. Basic upper level pattern will be trough over eastern
U.S. through the weekend into early next week then an upper level
ridge begins to develop in the southern plains about Tuesday and
Wednesday and builds in this direction with hotter temps
returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KBNA...MVFR Ceilings will continue through 16Z before VFR
conditions return. VCTS was added after 19Z although pinpointing
exact -TSRA impacts are too difficult at this time but best
timeframe appears to be 19Z-23Z. MVFR ceilings return around 09Z.

KCKV and KCSV...Off and on VFR/MVFR conditions can be expected
with IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities possible especially in any
-TSRA or BR/FG impacting the terminals. Best time frame for
VCTS/-TSRA will be 17Z-21Z for KCKV and 21Z-01Z for KCSV although
-RA will be possible through 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  90  72  90  72 /  50  30  30  40  30
Clarksville    71  88  71  87  72 /  50  30  30  40  30
Crossville     70  83  70  84  68 /  30  30  30  50  30
Columbia       72  91  72  89  71 /  50  30  30  50  30
Lawrenceburg   71  91  71  90  71 /  30  30  30  50  30
Waverly        72  89  72  87  71 /  50  30  30  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........55/Shamburger


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