Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 282306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
606 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017




A 1010 mb surface low is situated just south of MEM this hour,
and is part of a much broader frontal system that extends from
north of the Great Lakes, across the Mississippi Valley, through
the Ark-La-Tex, and into northern Mexico. The atmosphere across
Middle Tennessee has had a difficult time recovering from last
night`s severe storms. Even now, the radar remains PPINE, and the
HRRR (so unreliable yesterday, but performing better today), shows
scant activity the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening. Models are in better agreement today (although the NAM is
a bit slower than the GFS & ECMWF) regarding tonight`s rain
chances. The surface front will finally push through the mid state
overnight and tomorrow morning, with some redevelopment of showers
and perhaps a few storms, mainly to the east and south of
Nashville. This activity will probably last well into tomorrow in
some places before the showers finally exit the mid state prior to
tomorrow night. At this time, only the Cumberland Plateau remains
under a marginal risk of severe storms today and tonight.

Don`t look for much of a reprieve from the moist pattern, however.
The upper trough likely won`t swing through Middle Tennessee until
Tuesday evening, and even then a much weaker surface boundary will
sag southward into Middle Tennessee on Wednesday and stall just to
our south. Look for the moisture associated with this system to
remain close by until a much stronger low pressure system comes
together across the southern Plains over the weekend and then
pushes a cold front through the mid state the first part of next

Temperatures over the next several days will hover near or
slightly above normal, then a little warmer as we head into next
weekend. Despite the persistent chance of rain during the upcoming
week, QPF`s remain relatively low at least until next weekend.



Current regional radar imagery along with consensus model
solutions illustrating fact that prefrontal convection impacting
terminals ahead of/along approaching sfc cold front may be iso
at best. More confident in VCSH wording at terminals than actual
impacts. VCSH 29/03Z W - 29/07Z E with BKN stratus deck around
5KFT. Some MVFR fog possible CKV/BNA 29/07Z-29/14Z. Best
potential MVFR to IFR fog CSV per best low level moisture pooling
potential. Did not lean toward latest GFS Lamp guidance suggestion
for LIFR fog formation CSV 29/09Z-29/13Z as patchy bkn ci could
prevent max radiational cooling potential. After 29/14Z, sct cu
CKV/BNA to sct/bkn cu CSV will prevail per weak sfc ridging/zonal
flow aloft. Generally sfc W winds 5-7kts thru 29/24Z.





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