Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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102
FXUS64 KOHX 202238
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
438 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Folks, let`s start off about what we generally can expected over
the next seven days wx wise across the mid state. An unsettled
wx pattern, with unseasonably warm temp through the work week,
with some of those expected high and even low temps 15 to around
20 degrees above seasonal normal values. A frontal system will
move thru the mid state region as Fri progresses, and temps will
cool off over the weekend to around seasonal normal values, with
another system expected to approach the mid state as Mon
progresses, with a warmup in temps again expected. To put it
simply, Ole Man Winter is on vacation and nowhere to be found at
least for the work week. However, this unsettled and mostly
seasonably warm wx pattern brings with it a lot of potential
quandaries throughout the forecast period. Will upper level low
expected to develop and move across the gulf coast states as Tue
into Tue night progresses usher in enough wrap around moisture to
support numerous light to moderate shwrs during the evening hours?
With this frontal passage on Fri, will the mid state experience
enough instability to warrant some tstms developing across the
area Fri and into Fri evening? A consensus of model solutions
approach was taken over the forecast period, with particular leans
toward models that made more sense for a particular time period
versus another, and this includes a consensus approach to temp
forecasting. As for the above questions, believe that Tue into Tue
night that mid state will experience numerous light to moderate
shwrs. Due believe, especially Fri evening, that mid state will
experience some sct tstms along with numerous light to moderate
shwrs. So, just a lot of quandaries here dealing with specifics,
because you have an out of season wx pattern in the meteorological
winter months. There might be some strong tstms Fri afternoon
into Fri evening, and an isolated tstm or two might bring some
brief heavy rainfall, but really, even with this unseasonably warm
wx pattern, no significant organized svr wx potential or flooding
expected over this seven day period. However, you can take it to
the bank that Ole Man Winter, at least for this work week, is not
going to be around the mid state region.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...High pressure has slipped off to the east with
increasing return flow setting up across Middle Tennessee. Mainly
high clouds have filled in, with VFR wx expected overnight and
Tuesday morning. A strong upper low will move into Louisiana by
18Z tomorrow and will pull much deeper moisture into the mid
state, with showers developing during the late morning and
afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08



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