Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 211113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
513 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018




Holy summertime!  Well, ok.  Not summertime, but man it`s nice out
there.  We unexpectedly reached into the mid-60s yesterday as warm
air advection was considerably ramped up. We`re seeing the
effects of that this morning, as well, as temperatures are
struggling to fall out of the 50s. We will ultimately see some
upper 40s, but this is telling me that the warm air advection is
going to play a role today, even if we see the clouds again. For
this reason, I`m going a little above guidance for highs today and
lows Monday morning.

This WAA is all ahead of our next weather maker due in here Monday
morning. Models have been very consistent pushing a cold front
through here during the day Monday and not providing Middle TN
with PoPs until after 12Z Monday. This means rains may not
reach the Metro area until late morning. Due to the consistency,
I will continue this trend. On the whole, I don`t expect to see
much in the way of thunder. Forecast soundings are high in shear
with no CAPE but if I squint, I can see a very small chance of
thunder east of I-65 during the afternoon. So, I`ll highlight this
and a slight chance for thunder south of I-40 Monday morning.
Otherwise, look for showers throughout the day, with rains pushing
off the Plateau shortly after sunset Monday evening. Rainfall
totals should be less than an inch for everyone, but it will help
to wash some of the salt off the roads! Of note, it`s going to be
windy Monday. The pressure gradient will tighten considerably and
while we should remain below Wind Advisory levels, sustained 15-20
mph winds with gust of 30-35 mph will likely be common.

This frontal passage on Monday will bring a return of some cold air
for the mid-week, but nothing like we`ve seen in recent days.
Morning lows will drop in the upper 20s, afternoons in the 40s,
and by the end of the week, we`ll start warming once again with
upper 50s by Friday. Of course, the warmer temperatures don`t come
without consequence and that means another chance of rain next
weekend. Extended guidance is still about 18 hours apart in
frontal passage regarding next weekend`s system, so I`ll just
carry 30-40 PoPs for now and adjust with better agreement
throughout the upcoming week.



BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A strong south flow is advecting copious amounts
of warm moist air into Middle Tennessee today. A warm front has
developed well to our north and a low pressure system is deepening
over the Great Plains. This will affect our weather on Monday.
Expect MVFR clouds to move over CKV later this morning for a few
hours. There may also be a few showers around the area during the
day, but POP`s are not high enough to warrant mention in the
TAF`s. Otherwise, expect VFR wx the next 24 hrs.





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