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000
FXUS64 KOHX 302307
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
607 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Strong upper closed low continues to spin over the region, with
the center currently located over central KY. Models have the low
continuing to churn over that region until Saturday morning when
it begins its track northward. Before that, lobes of vorticity
will pass through the mid state as they swing around the upper
low, so continued chances for showers will stay in the forecast
through Saturday afternoon. In addition, short term models are
indicating the potential for fog, and since there was a bit of
dense fog this morning, went ahead and put in mention of fog
across the area. Models are really hinting at areas north of I-40,
so there may be potential for some areas seeing dense fog Saturday
morning.

As the low continues northward towards the eastern Great Lakes, a
subtle shortwave looks to move over the region Sunday and may
bring some slight chances for showers mainly to northern zones.
Models are not consistent with this feature, so opted for a dry
Sunday forecast for now. By Monday and into Tuesday, upper level
ridging tries to move in, and temperatures will begin to warm up
to above seasonal averages again. Wednesday still looks like the
warmest day, with most areas seeing the mid 80s. Another upper
trough looks to impact the area later next week, but the GFS and
ECMWF differ a bit on timing. The ECMWF is a bit faster and has
more precip over the mid state, while the GFS is slower and much
drier. So for now, just have slight chance pops in for Thursday
and into Friday morning until there is better model agreement to
raise pops. Since both long term models want to bring an upper
trough through the eastern CONUS, as well as an associated cold
front, expecting temperatures to cool off a bit for Friday and
next weekend back down to around or just below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Surface low is rotating through southern Indiana
this evening with scattered showers pushing westward across mainly
the northern half of Middle Tennessee. Winds will shift to the NW
later on, with abundant low-level moisture upstream and advection
fog and low stratus moving in later this evening and overnight.
Conditions will gradually improve during the day tomorrow.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08