Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 281733
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1233 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

With the upper high moving slightly further to the east, along
with some shortwave activity and diurnal support, additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop
this afternoon. Models are hinting that east of I-65 will get more
activity today, and with the convection we have seen the past few
days, went ahead and upped pops a bit for the eastern half of the
mid state. Similar conditions are in place since there hasn`t been
much of an upper level pattern change. Short term models are
showing MUCAPE values in the afternoon around 2000-3500 J/Kg which
is similar to the past few afternoons. So again expecting some
convective development during the early afternoon, and possibly
some outflow boundaries from early convection kicking off other
storms as well. Main threats with stronger storms look to be heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and possibly some hail if a few storms get
tall enough with strong updrafts.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR with chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms,
as well as MVFR/IFR fog overnight. Thunderstorms have already
started to pop up on radar west of KCSV, and look to continue to
develop this afternoon. KCSV will be the first impacted terminal,
followed by KBNA and shortly after KCKV according to model
consensus. Heavy rain could drop vis and cigs temporarily, but
look to be isolated in nature so just have vicinity mention for
now. Overnight fog looks to develop, especially at KCSV where IFR
fog looks possible, and MVFR at the other terminals. Otherwise fog
should end around 13Z or so tomorrow with VFR conditions returning
thereafter.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Barnwell



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