Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 251750
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DESCENDS UPON THE MID STATE...WAA
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS PUSHING TEMPS UPWARD AND THEY ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...WEST OF PLATEAU. WILL
THEREFORE ELECT TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...RADAR SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
NOW INTO OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. HRRR CONCURS WITH THIS BUT DEF
POPS WILL NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK TO LIKELY FOR OUR CENTRAL AREAS.
THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER. BUT...CERTAINLY BY
00Z...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE UPON US.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED...STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS...PARTICULARLY
OUTAHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WHERE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUBSIDENCE EXISTS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS KY DURING THE TAF PD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID STATE BEGINNING
A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. OF
FURTHER CONSEQUENCE...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO SUFFICIENT SNOW
LEVELS AND WE WILL SEE THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION SWITCH TO
SNOW BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR CSV...FROM 12Z THRU 16Z.

AS FOR CIGS AND VSBYS...IFR LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. THE LOW CIGS WILL CONT THRU THE TAF PD.
VSBYS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. REDUCTIONS DUE TO SNOWFALL SHOULD
MINIMAL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 18Z, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO CKV BY 17Z
AND TO BNA BY 19Z. AS THE LOW PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT CSV BY
22Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LIFR AT CSV BY 02Z. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AND SWITCH FROM SOUTH, TO WEST, TO NORTHWEST, AS THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES ACROSS KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      54  33  39  32 /  70  60  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    53  30  40  32 /  90  70  10  10
CROSSVILLE     50  32  37  28 /  30  80  50  20
COLUMBIA       54  33  41  32 /  70  60  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   55  33  41  32 /  60  60  10  10
WAVERLY        53  32  41  31 /  90  60  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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