Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 191129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
529 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017




Sfc low over southern AR will work northeast today and work along a
northward moving warm front. A strong upper level shortwave will be
adding dynamics to the system as the axis becomes negatively tilted
as it reaches the MO bootheel. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall can be
expected, mainly before midnight. Otherwise, light shower activity
will persist toward sunrise. Some tstm activity will also be
possible although sfc capes and showalter values support only
minimal instability levels.

On Friday into Friday night, nva will combine with weak ridging and
therefore, little if any pops will be carried. Pops will return on
Saturday as some weak upper level energy traverses the mid state.
However, sfc troughing over the deep south will keep the heavier
activity south of TN.

Temps through Saturday will continue to be very mild for January.
Lows will generally be in the 50s and highs in the 60s.

For the ext fcst, still looking for a closed low to track across the
deep south. Deformational zone clearly indicated to the north across
our area. Vertical temp structure looks as though generally mild
temps will continue. But as always, temps may be a little cooler
than the models indicate. Will include rain showers with perhaps
some thunder as lapse rates increase. An inch or so of rainfall
looks likely Sunday into Sunday night.

For the rest of the extended, the energetic upper level pattern
looks as though it will take a breather. Elevated heights and a more
zonal flow will evoke a continuation of mild temps through at least
mid week.



Rain and isolated storms expected to spread across the region
today and well into tonight. Cigs/vsbys will become rapidly
degraded later today and will largely remain the way through
tonight. Cigs/vsbys are expected to eventually drop to IFR/LIFR





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