Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 010827
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
327 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FLOATING AROUND THE MID-STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40...BUT
MOST EVERYONE IS QUIET.  THESE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF MIDDLE TN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN QUIET
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE AREN`T DONE WITH THE
RAIN BY ANY STRETCH.  ALL OF THE MID-STATE REMAINS MIRED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MANY TODAY AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...IF WE CAN GET INITIATION...THERE DEFINITELY COULD BE A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  WITH THE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.  COVERAGE WON`T BE VERY
HIGH...PROBABLY IN THE 50 PERCENT NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING IN LIFE...ISN`T IT?  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE START OF THE WORKWEEK SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE. UNFORTUNATELY...
THERE IS ACROSS-THE-BOARD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WON`T BE THE CASE
MONDAY.  AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID-
STATE LATE TONIGHT...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE REGION.  THE PROBLEM IS...WITHOUT A
LARGE SCALE PUSH...THE COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY.  WHILE DYNAMICS AREN`T BAD...INCLUDING SOME WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...THE MISSING PART WILL BE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...I THINK
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND EVERYBODY CAN EXPECT AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO EXIT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THESE COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE
GOING TO THE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE IN A FAIRLY DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WORKWEEK.  WHILE EACH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO FALL
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...IF NOT EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THESE DAYS AS THE MOST INTENSE OF
THESE SHORTWAVES COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MANY MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70 DEGREES AND FRIDAY MORNING MIGHT EVEN WELCOME 40S BACK
INTO THE MID-STATE.  HOWEVER...FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS WE
GET PINCHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE CLOSED LOWS...ONE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THE OTHER NEAR THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH BNA AND CSV EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CKV OVERNIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT TIMES...WITH VIS BOUNCING BETWEEN
IFR/LIFR. AFTER SUNRISE ALL THREE SITES WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING...AS MODELS INDICATE A
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      82  61  74  54  70 /  50  40  70  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    80  58  69  51  67 /  50  20  60  20  20
CROSSVILLE     76  60  73  54  66 /  50  50  70  60  30
COLUMBIA       80  61  73  53  69 /  50  40  70  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   81  62  74  54  70 /  40  40  70  30  10
WAVERLY        82  59  72  50  69 /  50  30  60  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST........UNGER
AVIATION........05


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