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000
FXUS64 KOHX 211215
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
715 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE WINNING
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
MID STATE. INITIAL LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...BUT A SECOND LINE IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. A THIRD AND MUCH MORE INTENSE LINE OF
STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS TOWARDS THE MID STATE.
THUS APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. 12Z OHX
SOUNDING PRIOR TO THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS HAD CONSIDERABLE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH AN LI OF -10 AND VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THESE NEXT TWO LINES OF STORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...LINE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS STAYED TOGETHER AND
MOVED INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING, SO RAIN IS PART OF
THE INITIAL PERIOD OF THE TAF`S, ALONG WITH SOME FOG AT CSV. LOOK
FOR A REPRIEVE FROM THE WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A LONG STRETCH OF VFR WX. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BEGIN SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...

RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...WITH ACTIVITY NOW APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER.
ALTHOUGH MCS HAS SHOWN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD
POOL WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE 4 KM WRF...HRRR...AND NSSL WRF ALL BRING ACTIVITY INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES IN A FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS
MORNING...AND THUS WILL RAISE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY OVER GUIDANCE FOR
THE PRE-FIRST AND FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ALSO BUMPED UP
CLOUD COVER AND WENT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR
TODAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIP. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY DEPENDING ON HOW
CURRENT ACTIVITY EVOLVES.

MODELS INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST
MID STATE TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. SPC HAS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO TO SPRINGFIELD. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE 03Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...BUT NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY
REDUCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL MLCAPE AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A LOWER END THREAT OF SOME
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ANY TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS VERY LOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TO OUR WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTE THAT MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF I-65 WILL
REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

AS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN ALOFT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S. MID STATE LOOKS TO STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES WITH GFS COMPLETELY
DRY BUT ECMWF SHOWING DAILY POPS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
FOR NOW BUT NOTE THAT EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$