Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 290847
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
347 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA
FILLED WITH DOWNED TREE REPORTS AND POWER OUTAGES...THINGS HAVE
QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH THE
CLOUDS...WE SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH LESS THAN 2-3 MILES VISIBILITY
PRIOR TO 8 AM.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WE
COULD VERY WELL BEGIN TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE
SAW YESTERDAY.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT
BEING FULL OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW VALUES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUILDING IN
EVEN STRONGER TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
BEST BUT THE STAGE MAY VERY WELL BE IN FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND WITH
DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.  THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB TO 106-108 FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS TODAY.  WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR
THESE FOLKS AND COVER THE AREA BETWEEN I-65 AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WITH AN SPS TO DEAL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-STATE. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO CARRY WITH
IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. AS WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BUT
BY NOON SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE MUCH OF THE SAME AND WHILE WE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LOW AND RANGE BETWEEN 1F AND
3F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BROKEN DECK...MOSTLY MID LEVEL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG MAY RED VSBYS
DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES TOWARD 12Z.

CAPE/CAP RATIO TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN ON WED AFT.
CATALYTIC IMPULSES MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY...HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER HIGH IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. STILL THOUGH...ISOL TO SCT ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFT 18Z. WILL INCLUDE PROB 30S FOR CKV AND
BNA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      94  75  90  67  89 /  30  40  30  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    93  72  87  66  88 /  30  40  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     89  72  85  65  84 /  30  40  40  10  10
COLUMBIA       95  74  90  67  90 /  40  40  40   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   95  73  90  66  89 /  30  40  40   0   0
WAVERLY        94  73  88  68  89 /  30  40  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS VALID FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

$$


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