Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 011947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FIRING
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD ESE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE EAST IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. KEPT IN ISOLD POP UNTIL FROPA.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE
60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE
COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU.
EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR
NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND
MID 80S.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

WINDS REMAIN SW AND GUSTY THROUGH 23-00Z. THE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SW BY 23-
00Z...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH 22 OR 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...VFR WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS
CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE
OR E.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBO OF 2-3 FT SWELL AND S-SW FLOW JUST OVER 15 KT...MAINLY OUT
EAST...SHOULD STILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 5 FT E OF MORICHES
INLET. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THERE AND HAS BEEN
CANCELED FARTHER WEST.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU
THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WELL INLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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