Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 061452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE USHERED OUT TO SEA BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ON
MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AS BEST LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE ARE ROTATING INLAND FASTER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED. DRY SLOT IN THE MID LEVELS WORKING IN FROM THE SE COULD
EVEN ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS EASTERN CT/LI. LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...AS PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH LOWER
OVERALL COVERAGE THAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDER
APPEARS LOW AS GREATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT KEPT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...ENE FLOW NORTH OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH H5 COLD POOL
ALSO MOVING ACROSS...AND SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND
ZERO... HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC FOR ELEVATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL TODAY...ONLY REACHING LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS
AS IT GETS NUDGED OUT TO SEA ON SAT BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. CLOUDY AND COOL WITH A WEAKENING ELY FLOW
THROUGH THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH JUST
LIGHT AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS MAY
DECREASE ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE CITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
PROVIDING THE AREA WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY GETS PUSHED EAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR
RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON MONDAY.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATING A WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE
REGION...RESULTING IN AT LEAST BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. POPS REMAIN
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE IS THE SUGGESTION
THAT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY REMAIN FIRM AND KEEP THE CWA
MAINLY DRY...FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ALSO HINTS AT PERIODS OF RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RETROGRADE WNW TOWARDS
THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY...IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS OF 14Z...IFR TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING TO IFR IN A STEADY RAIN...WITH
VSBY FALLING TO MVFR. VBSY LIKELY DROP TO IFR LATE THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON AS STEADIER RAIN DISSIPATES BUT DRIZZLE REMAINS.
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN -SHRADZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MID MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO THIS AFT WHILE VEERING TO THE E. WINDS AND GUSTS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IFR/LIFR CIGS IN -SHRADZ LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW VSBY REMAINS.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY
BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY
BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY
BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY
BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY
BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. MODERATE PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY
BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST AS OF MID
MORNING BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY/RAPIDLY INCREASING THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE CORE OF A 35KT 950-925MB JET OVER THE WATERS TODAY...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS
EASTERN LI SOUND WHERE GOOD CHANNELING IS EXPECTED. SCA IN EFFECT
FROM 11Z THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT ON ALL REMAINING WATERS...ALTHOUGH
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WELL AS PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS MAY
ALSO SEE GALE GUSTS. HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE FORECAST.

GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVE BUT WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED
WITH SCA...MAINLY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT INTO MONDAY.
SUB-SCA THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 25 KT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS NYC...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR TSTMS.
PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF
WESTERN LI AND QUEENS WITH THIS MORNING HIGH TIDE.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR PEAK
TONIGHT. SURGE LIKELY PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
GALE E/NE WINDS...AND THEN BEGINS TO FALL AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES
TONIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS HIGHER GUIDANCE BASED ON THIS BEING A
MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE EVENT AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALBEIT
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN 3/4
TO 1 1/2 FT OF SURGE DURING HIGH TIDE. THUS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES OF SOUTH
SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU...QUEENS AND SE BROOKLYN. WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES OF
WESTERN LI SOUND...SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...STATEN ISLAND...AND
TIDALLY INFLUENCED WATERWAYS OF NE NJ. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN
CT...EASTERN LI...BRONX...MANHATTAN...AND NORTHERN QUEENS LOCALIZED
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VULNERABLE COASTAL
LOCALES. MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY ON ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO E TO W SWEEP OF 3 TO 6 FT SURF.

FOR SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN STEADY TO SLIGHTLY
DROPPING OFF...SURGE SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS
OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...AND BROOKLYN. WATER LEVELS COULD POSSIBLY
TOUCH MODERATE LEVELS IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF SOUTHERN
NASSAU. ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND AND TIDALLY INFLUENCED PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY.

FOR SUN NIGHT...ASTRO TIDES AND SURGE SHOULD DROP WATER LEVEL
FURTHER...BUT SOME LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH BAYS OF WESTERN LI.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ080.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/24
NEAR TERM...GS/BC/24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP/NV
MARINE...BC/24
HYDROLOGY...BC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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