Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 030536
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO
WEST TO CHICAGO SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

DEW POINT TEMPS NEARING 70 OVER LONG ISLAND AND COST CT SUPPORT
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE SKC.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S AND 70S PER MOS. BLEND USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY THOUGH THE DAY.

UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COASTS. BLENDED MET/MAV.

BETTER PCPN CHANCE IS TONIGHT DUE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL LIFT
AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE TROUGH...AND AS THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AT BEST.

AS FOR STORM STRENGTH...30 KT OF SHEAR AND SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG SUPPORT ONLY A MARGINAL RISK THIS EVENING NORTHWEST. BETTER
RISK FOR SEVERE IS IN UPSTATE NY.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS
DRY OUT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA...CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 90 THROUGHOUT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN
EXPECTED...AND A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THE TRACK OF
EACH LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS WITH EACH RUN...BUT
IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...AS AT LEAST 2 DIFFERENT AREAS
OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONDS DRYING OUT BY
SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY.

MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHICH SHOULD
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT ON THIS FIRST NIGHT OF
ONSHORE FLOW.

LIGHT S/SW FLOW TONIGHT...PICKS UP MONDAY MORNING AND BECOMES
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK
INTO KEWR/KTEB.

MAINLY VFR ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AT KSWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS
SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
EAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING
CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WEAK HIGH PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRES MAY
PASS ACROSS THE WATERS...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS FOR AT LEAST
THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MPS/TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



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