Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1229 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY...CLOUDS LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. INLAND WIND
SHIFTS TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ADJUSTED SEAS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...PICCA/FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW





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