Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 040853
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH TODAY. AS IT DOES...A TIGHT E-NE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH...MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS...THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY...AND HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...
TOUCHING OFF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AS SEAS BUILD AND LONG SHORE
CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF TIME...THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY EVENING...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 50% FROM APPROX
900-250MB. THIS COMES COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SUNNY SKIES AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
BOTH MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG A
TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST...WHICH WOULD SEEM A PRETTY GOOD BET CONSIDERING THE
SUSTAINED DRY WEATHER PATTERN GOING ON.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO ABOVE NORMALS IN SPITE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND SEA BREEZES LIMITING THE MIXING
DEPTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE SAFE...BUT EXPECTED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY CAN COME CLOSE TO RECORDS IN SOME CASES. PREFERRED THE
WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AND WITH 900MB TEMPS
RISING....MONDAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. DEEPER
MIXING ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE AND LESSER SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT
RISING BOTH DAYS...EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 IN THE
CITY...NE NJ...AND SOME OTHER INLAND SPOTS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZES.
WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. SO FAR IT APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS...WHILE NOT NECESSARILY
AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS...WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT
ADVISORY CONCERNS.

LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND
PASSING THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

VFR TO GET STARTED...WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KGON AND KISP.
LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS...CEILINGS APPEAR TO BE RUNNING AROUND
4000 FT. SO CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY IS
DECREASING. FOR NOW...JUST RAISED TO 3000FT EVERYWHERE AND DELAYED
UNTIL AFTER 12Z...IF TRENDS HOLD...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WILL
KEEP FORECAST VFR WITH 12Z TAFS. BUT FOR NOW...LIFT CEILINGS TO
VFR AROUND MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THEN ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS INCREASING OUT THE NE THIS MORNING...AND WILL VEER TO ENE-E
BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15KT AND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT (SOONEST AWAY FROM CITY
TERMINALS...COULD GO BELOW 10 KT THERE SOON AFTER 0Z).

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW-MODERATE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW-MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW-MODERATE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW-MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW-MODERATE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW-MODERATE. TIMING IN END OF MVFR FOG THIS
MORNING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORM A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH WIT
LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. E-NE WINDS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT...AND WILL LIKELY NOT SUBSIDE TO LESS
THAN 5 FT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT TODAY...AND EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR NW ZONES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/JC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS/JC


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