Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 010543
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in between high pressure to the northeast
and low pressure to the southwest through the weekend. The low
will then slowly weaken as it moves toward the region on Monday.
Meanwhile, high pressure will build from the north from Monday
through the middle of the week, then retreat to the northeast
later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A closed upper low remains near the Lower Great Lakes as a surface
front remains to the south and west. With the setup remaining
basically the same as today, expect more of the same tonight,
light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog.

Gusty NE winds this evening along the coast will gradually
diminish later tonight.

Temperatures should remain nearly steady or fall only a degree or
two tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The closed low will track into Upstate New York while gradually
opening into a trough. Light rain/drizzle/patchy fog will become
more spotty with time, so only have chance PoP.

Temperatures should remain a few degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models coming into better agreement with stacked cutoff low
pressure, sitting over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday, to
slowly open and move through the northeast Monday and Tuesday as
stubborn Western Atlantic ridging weakens and slides SE a bit.

At the surface, stacked low pressure sitting over the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes, with its warm front running from the Mid
Atlantic and well southeast of Long Island, will gradually wash
out as it moves east Sunday into Monday in response to the the
upper level energy. With the main moisture/LLJ axis weakening and
lifting NE of the region by Sunday, and most of the moisture
relegated to the low levels, would expected mainly drizzle or
scattered light showers Sunday into Sunday Night.

For Mon/Tue, although low levels should continue to dry, as upper
trough energy moves overhead, diurnal iso-sct shower activity
possible with cold pool/diurnal instability interacting with
residual moisture.

Thereafter, models in good agreement with deep layered ridging
developing for mid to late week with region experiencing a
Canadian Maritime airmass. Meanwhile, the evolution of Hurricane
Matthew will be closely monitored, with forecast sensitivity tied
to the evolution of upper energy as it moves offshore the east
coast mid to late week, the mid to late week evolution of the
trough energy coming into the West Coast this weekend, and the
development of Matthew itself. Refer to the National Hurricane
center forecasts for the latest information.

Temps near or slightly below seasonable through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The terminals will remain between high pressure to the northeast and
low pressure to the southwest through Saturday.

Most terminals will prevail MVFR overnight with areas of drizzle.
MVFR conditions continue for Saturday for a short time. -SHRA
from mid to late morning and forecast guidance is very pessimistic
with returning IFR during the day in both visbilities and
ceilings.

NE winds through the TAF period.

.Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
.Saturday afternoon...IFR/MVFR in rain.
.Saturday Night-Sunday Night...MVFR or lower possible with showers.
.Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR with isolated to scattered showers
possible.
.Wednesday...VFR. NE gusts 20-25 kt near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds were still gusting to 35-40 kt at the offshore buoys and at
platforms along the north shore of Long Island, so have extended
gale warning until 11 PM for Long Island Sound, and until 2 AM for
the ocean. Replaced gale warning with SCA for the Long Island
south shore bays, where winds were gusting no higher than 30 kt.

SCA criteria could last into Saturday morning for eastern Long
Island Sound, the eastern bays of Long Island, and the ocean
Waters. Seas to at least 5 feet could linger on the ocean waters
through Saturday night.

Conditions fall below SCA levels on all waters by Sunday as
easterly flow weakens and seas subside.

Seas on the ocean waters should start to increase mid week with a
persistent NE flow, but there is still some uncertainty on
timing/magnitude.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall of 1/2 to 3/4 inch expected through Saturday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Widespread minor flooding continues to be a concern for the south
shore back bays of Nassau and Southwestern Suffolk counties, where
departures of 1.5-2 feet should cause minor coastal flooding.
Across Lower NY Harbor, including associated tributaries in NE NJ,
and the Southern Bays of Queens and Brooklyn, there is the
potential for isolated minor coastal flooding, with departures of
around 1.5 ft expected.

Additionally, a persistent easterly sweep of 6 to 10 ft surf
tonight will likely cause minor to moderate beach erosion along
the ocean shores.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
     355.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Maloit
NEAR TERM...Goodman/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...IRD/JP
MARINE...Goodman/Maloit/NV
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/Maloit/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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