Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 290923
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
523 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track out to sea today, allowing high pressure
to build in on Thursday. Low pressure will impact the area
Thursday night through Saturday. High pressure builds in for
Sunday through Monday night. Another area of low pressure
affects the region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure south of Nantucket will continue to track out to
sea today. A 1030s high building southward over Ontario will
combine with the exiting low to produce northerly winds into
tonight. Residual low clouds will burn off this morning, then
fair weather cumulus should develop this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached. Moderate mixing will allow for
temperatures to eclipse highs of the past few days, despite the
essentially cooler airmass. The guidance was in good agreement
so a blend was used.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure drifts across the forecast area resulting in fair
weather and light winds. Mid and high clouds will filter out the
sunshine from time to time. A blend of the guidance, which was
in good agreement, was used for temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Operational models are in fairly good agreement in the long term.
High pressure at the surface pushes off the New England coast
Thursday night. Warm air advection allows clouds to lower and
thicken, with precipitation moving in mainly late Thursday night as
a weakening surface low form the mid-West approaches. Precipitation
may start out as a brief period of wintry mix inland. Little, if any
accumulation is expected.

Precipitation continues into Friday, with plain rain everywhere by
the afternoon. The rain may come down moderate to heavy at times
Friday night as a secondary low develops off the mid-Atlantic coast,
creating a decent amount of lift throughout the column to support
the heavier rainfall. Precipitable water values exceeding an inch
late Friday night is well above the average for the date, given
climatology.

After some lingering showers Saturday morning, surface high pressure
builds in thereafter, keeping the area dry through the rest of the
weekend into Monday.

High pressure pushes off the East Coast on Monday night, allowing for
another low to affect the area Tuesday.

Temperatures during the long term will be seasonable, with the
exception of Friday and Saturday. Cloudy skies and rain will keep
temperatures below normal these days.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure departs this morning. A cold front pushes through
the region this afternoon...with high pressure building towards
the area tonight.

Conditions expected to gradually improve to VFR through
10z...then remain so through the TAF period.

Upstream wind gusts and latest HRRR indicating wind gusts will
likely develop earlier and stronger this morning...with gusts
to 20-25 kt from 10z and through the afternoon. NW gusts likely
last for metro terminals into the start of the evening push.
Gusts diminish after 00 to 02z. Winds expected to be right of
310 magnetic through the period.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and
continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds
expected to be right of 310 magnetic.

KLGA TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and
continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds
expected to be right of 310 magnetic.

KEWR TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and
continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds
expected to be right of 310 magnetic.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and
continuing into at least the start of evening push. Winds
expected to be right of 310 magnetic.

KHPN TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt during morning push and
continuing into at least the start of evening push.

KISP TAF Comments: NW gusts 20-25 kt developing during morning
push and continuing into at least the start of evening push.
Peak gusts to 25 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Late Tonight...VFR. N-NW winds 8 to 12 kt.
.Thursday...VFR. AM NW winds backing W in PM.
.Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions in rain developing in the AM for
metro terminals...with IFR in wintry mix possible for northern
terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions in rain likely in the afternoon.
.Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain likely...gradual
improvement on Saturday. E/NE winds G20-30KT at coastal
terminals.
.Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds will increase today as low pressure tracks out
to sea. Winds could approach Small Craft Advisory levels tonight
on the ocean, before diminishing again on Thursday.

Winds should remain below 25 kt through Friday morning. An
approaching frontal system will increase the pressure gradient
across the waters and bring wind gusts along the ocean waters to 25
kt to 30 kt Friday afternoon into Saturday (a brief lull possible
late Friday night). Peconic and Gardiner`s Bays may see gusts 25 kt
to 30 kt late Friday night into Saturday, while the back bays may
see 25 kt gusts Friday night. Winds diminish Saturday night, and
remain below SCA criteria for the rest of the long term.

Waves build to 5 to 8 ft on the ocean Friday night into Saturday
morning, then diminish Saturday night, but should remain above 5 ft
through Sunday morning. Thereafter, waves remain below 5 ft through
the rest of the long term.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Between 1 and 1.5 inches of QPF is possible from Thursday night
through Saturday. Locally higher amounts are possible. At this time,
flooding is not expected, though some minor urban and poor drainage
flooding is possible during this time frame.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Isolated minor tidal flooding is possible tonight due to high
astronomical tides.

An approaching low pressure system will likely bring some minor
coastal flood impacts to vulnerable coastal communities during
the Friday Night high tide. Tidal departures of 1 to 1 1/2 ft
are needed to reach minor flood levels and 2 to 2 1/2 ft for
moderate flood levels during that time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...12/JP
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...12/JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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