Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 221531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY DEPARTS TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THAT LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND CONTINUES TO GENERATE
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...SO WHERE IT IS WARM
ENOUGH...P-TYPE IS PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND WHERE TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO
FREEZING WELL INLAND ACROSS SW CT AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...ALSO FLURRIES AS IT APPEARS TO BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO BE PRESENT.

MEANWHILE...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR ERN CT
AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SE NASSAU/SW SUFFOLK COUNTIES. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE TO LAST LONG AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE EAST.


OTHERWISE...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA TODAY
AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATE AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART.
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SW ZONES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO NYC AND
PARTS OF NE NJ BY THE EVENING COMMUTE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 40S ACROSS COASTAL
ZONES TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
LOW. WITH COLD AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR SLOW TO DEPART...CAN EXPECT
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY FOR ORANGE COUNTY...TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
AND HOIST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY FROM 6 PM
MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ENOUGH
WARM AIR SHOULD SURGE NORTHWARD TO CHANGE PRECIP TO PLAIN
RAIN...BUT NOT BEFORE A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DEVELOPS. THE
EVENING COMMUTE MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE ICE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA.

LOW PRES THEN WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST...AND
THAT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
BEFORE DEPARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THE SECOND WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAN EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

WITH WAA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MOST AREAS...AND INTO THE LOW 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH BRINGS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE
NIGHT WEDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY DAYBREAK ON CHRISTMAS...RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
FARTHER WEST...ONLY A CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY ON...SO MOST OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY. AS FOR WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT
IN SPITE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL PASSING OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
MIXING DOWN THROUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS HOWEVER
A CHANCE OF A FEW GUSTS GETTING UP TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THURSDAY IF GFS VERIFIES. ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH WINDS HOWEVER. BEST
GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT WE FALL JUST BELOW CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS TO
CRITERIA ARE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMALS. FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND EITHER WASHES OUT OR PASSES THROUGH AS TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT A
DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS ON SUNDAY. FOR A
COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH OR
NEARBY...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
CENTER PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
HERE. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
TYPE SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX OF THE TWO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

PRIMARILY AN IFR TO LOW-END MVFR FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISP..KBDR...AND KGON WHERE SOME
DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY BEFORE LOWERING
TO IFR THIS EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN HAPPEN SOONER.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY STEADIER LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

N-NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT...GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E-ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK TO THE NE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ/SN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/SN/DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY.
.TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. E WINDS G15-20 KT PROBABLE...
BECOMING SE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY.
IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS 15-20G20-25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS PROBABLE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE AT
NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING FROM W
TO E. WSW-NW WINDS G30-35+KT LIKELY.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT...WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THEN AFTER A RELATIVE LULL THIS
EVENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN OVER THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SCA IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. SCA MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO ALL
OCEAN WATERS TUE NIGHT. ALL OTHER WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND
SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE
COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY FOR ALL WATERS DURING
THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL HOWEVER REMAIN AT CRITERIA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ067.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS





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