Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP DEEPEN A SFC LOW OFF THE DELMARVA.
AT THE SAME TIME...A 1030S HI OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY
BACKED TO THE N ACROSS THE CWA.

THE STABLE FLOW WILL REDUCE TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT FOG. MAINTAINED PATCHY.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT.
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.

OVERALL TODAY...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1 AND 2
KFT. DO NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER 4 MILES...UNLESS
ANY AIRPORT EXPERIENCES LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FOR A TIME.

ON AND OFF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. BEST GUESS FOR TIMING WOULD BE THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS BECOME FREQUENT
AFTER 14-16Z. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED.

THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...THEN DUE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN ON AND
OFF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BECOMING E/NE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON
ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA
FOR OCEAN WED THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






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