Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 051110
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
SFC WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN AT
LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST AS WARM OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

THE UPPER LOW AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SPED UP A LITTLE THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH IT SHIFTING
EAST OF THE FA BY TUESDAY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FA WITH THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER/MODEST FOR SATURDAY SO THE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA...LITTLE LONE SEVERE
STORMS... WILL BE LOW BUT POSSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA SUNDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN SATURDAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HOURS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE
BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH MORE LIFT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         84  54  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  54  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           85  54  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  50  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         81  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/25


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