Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The May 24-25, 2017 18 UTC TAF discussion follows:


Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue
through the TAF period. Few to scattered cumulus, generally at
~4500-5000 ft AGL, will persist east of a line from near Enid to
Oklahoma City to Durant through the afternoon. Northwesterly
winds are expected to shift to the southeast this evening and will
become gusty by mid-morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1059 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

A few minor tweaks to temperature and wind grids for
today, otherwise a beautiful May day is in store.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

12Z TAFs.

VFR conditions will prevail. Northwest winds today will become
southeast this evening as surface ridge moves to the east.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

One more mild day today before we get a taste of summer beginning
tomorrow, especially in the southwest. We will stay in northwest
flow today as mid-level low settles southeast through the
Mississippi Valley. Surface ridge axis moves through overnight
tonight and southerly winds return. Although the mid-level ridge
the moves over the Plains tomorrow is not of very strong
amplitude, a dryline moves into western sections of the area with
a strong downslope component of the low-level winds. This will
create hot conditions in the southwest tomorrow where surface
winds veer the strongest. Some areas will be pushing triple digits
tomorrow in the southwestern sections of our north Texas counties.
The surface low meanders over Oklahoma through Friday night
bringing a cold front into northern Oklahoma, but keeping a
strong, hot west/southwest flow in the southwest. The upper wave
features are rather subtle in the broad west-southwest flow aloft,
so do not have high confidence in specific placement of the
surface features (especially the cold front) on Thursday and
Friday, so there may be some bust potential on temperatures in the
north and central depending on where the front ends up on each
day. We will keep low pops Friday in the north near where the
front is expected to be. Otherwise, storm chances appear to
primarily be north of the area on Friday night, but again we will
have to watch where the surface front is located.

A stronger and more defined wave approaches the Plains on Saturday
bringing surface cyclogenesis to western Oklahoma or the
panhandles on Saturday and our next significant chance of
precipitation and severe weather potential, mainly in eastern
portions of the area. This upper wave sets up in the Great Lakes
region early next week with northwesterly flow aloft setting up
over the northern/central Plains. There is a signal of at least
one shortwave moving south/southeast into the upper Midwest and
Plains, so we will watch for the potential of nocturnal MCS
chances moving out of the central Plains. But this is still a few
days away.


Oklahoma City OK  72  52  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         79  54  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  55  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  53  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  49  82  63 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         75  53  87  71 /   0   0   0   0




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