Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 250201 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
901 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
The heat advisory was allowed to drop at 8 pm this evening with no
current plans to extend into Monday right now.

A few storms developed in Northern and Southeast Oklahoma late
this afternoon/early evening. These storms, however, have
dissipated with the loss of heating. Additional showers and
storms are still possible across portions of the area
overnight/early Monday. The best opportunity will be with activity
that developed in the High Plains and Panhandles moving east into
the area. Overall, going forecast looks good with no major changes
but did make some minor tweaks to grids to better show current
trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
A front will drift slowly south into northern Oklahoma overnight
and bring a chance for rain and thunderstorms Monday. Increasing
moisture over southeastern Oklahoma will allow more thunderstorms
to develop there Monday. The stalled front across northern or
central Oklahoma Monday afternoon will likely be associated with
more thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A few mid level returns are still present on radar this afternoon
across portions of northwest OK, where a stationary boundary is
present. Could see some moist convection develop later this
evening across this region with the onset of LLJ and a mid to
upper trough axis moving through the plains. It appears the
boundary will become a little more focused by this time as well. A
few strong storms may try to nudge into northern OK with the main
threat being damaging winds.

Rain chances will continue to increase through tomorrow as mid
level perturbations rotate around the eastern periphery of the
ridge, and a mid to upper shortwave passes over southeast OK.
Temperatures will slowly begin to cool over the next several days
with our region becoming influenced by northerly flow as the ridge
continues to shift westward.

The highest rain chances will likely accompany numerous mid level
shortwave troughs moving within this flow by mid to late week.
There is now fairly decent agreement of one such wave moving into
OK Wed-Thu. The ECMWF and DGEX are still suggesting a surface
boundary lingering over us Thu and Fri as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  95  74  91 /  20  30  30  30
Hobart OK         77  99  74  93 /  10  30  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  79  99  75  95 /  10  20  30  20
Gage OK           73  95  71  92 /  40  40  30  30
Ponca City OK     76  93  73  91 /  40  40  40  30
Durant OK         77  95  76  94 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09


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