Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 151059 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
459 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and generally light winds will prevail throughout
the TAF period. Winds will gradually shift around from the
northwest to the south through the day.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concern is today and tomorrow with elevated to critical fire
weather concerns. Tomorrow night will bring chances for light
precipitation across eastern and central Oklahoma. Beyond that, the
forecast looks mostly dry with temperatures continuing at or above
normal.

Fire Weather Concerns Today and Saturday...

As winds start to turn around to the southwest and bring in some
warmer, dry air; RH values are expected to fall into the upper teens
and lower 20s across western Oklahoma and western north Texas this
afternoon. During this period of drought, guidance has tended to be
too moist by as much a 5 to 10 degrees. Therefore, opted to undercut
guidance. Winds are expected to be fairly light under the influence
of a nearby surface high. This will help mitigate fire weather
concerns.

Saturday will be a different story as south winds begin to increase
in response to an approaching front. RH values will again be low.
With the pre-frontal torching set-up, undercut guidance on dewpoints
again. Southerly moisture fetch may mitigate some of this, but it
looks like this moisture return doesn`t really get going until late
in the evening. Northwest and parts of western Oklahoma will be
slowest to respond, making them areas of concern for near critical
to critical fire weather. Opted for a blend of MOS guidance for
afternoon winds and MaxT as well, given the set-up. With ERC values
near the 90th percentile, will likely need a Red Flag warning for
much of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Light Precipitation Saturday Night...

There`s fairly good model agreement showing an upper low over the
California baja being kicked out on Saturday and bringing
precipitation to Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma Saturday night. Parts
of central Oklahoma will be on the edge of this precipitation
shield. Confidence is high in eastern portions of the CWA receiving
precipitation, however, amounts look to be pretty dismal.

Dry Week Ahead...Mostly...

After Saturday`s precipitation, not much moisture is expected to
make its way back up. A upper level low with an associated weak
front moving through on Monday may bring some weak chances for rain,
with moisture being the limiting factor. The GFS seems to be an
outlier here in producing precipitation. In addition, models have
begun to converge toward a more open/progressive system, which as
mentioned by the previous forecaster, would favor a dry forecast.
Therefore kept the forecast dry.

Cold Weather Coming in the Extended...

With models converging on the open/progressive system, we can begin
to look ahead to late next week when another upper level trough
sweeps down toward the state. A significant cold front is associated
with this system, set to bring much colder air into the area.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  33  60  42 /   0   0   0  30
Hobart OK         54  30  59  39 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  56  31  62  42 /   0   0   0  40
Gage OK           58  30  63  34 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     53  31  61  42 /   0   0   0  60
Durant OK         54  33  62  42 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/14/14



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