Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 310827
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Cold Canadian high pressure will move slowly east into the region
today and tonight, and will remain in control of the weather
through the upcoming weekend. Blustery north winds will increase
to 15 to 20 MPH by afternoon with gusts up near 30 MPH. Winds will
stay up into the evening hours as temperatures fall quickly through
the 40s and into the 30s. Will feel closer to 30 when winds are
factored in this evening. Overnight lows will likely fall below
freezing by dawn Saturday, but the coldest night will likely come
Saturday night as the high pressure system moves overhead. In
fact, a hard freeze will be probable in many locations. Thus, will
continue ongoing freeze warning for both nights.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

South winds will increase across the region on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front.  Temperatures will continue to moderate back
up to near normal readings for Monday and Monday night.  ECMWF
brings the cold front across the PAH forecast area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, while GFS is about 6 hours slower. GEM solution is
now really slowing the front down and tries to hang it up over our
area, so focus of forecast will remain on an ECMWF/GFS blend.
ECMWF brings some light precip into west/northwest portions of the
fa late Monday night, while GFS holds off until Tuesday morning, but
model consistency leans toward keeping some small pops in before 12z
Tuesday. Bulk of precip will be late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
and went likely pops for our west/northwest counties on Tuesday, all
but our far southeast counties Tuesday night, then across our
southeast counties Wednesday.  Although timing is still a little bit
in questions, do feel pretty confident all area will receive
measurable rainfall within that time frame. Behind the front, dry
conditions will return as a weak upper level ridge moves over the
area.  Near to a little below normal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Main aviation concern is strong winds behind a cold front that
will cross our region very early Friday morning. Showers have
diminished ahead of the front...and no significant vsby concerns
are expected. There will likely be mvfr cigs developing along the
front toward daybreak. These cigs will rise above vfr thresholds
by about 18z. Strong and gusty north to northwest winds will
develop behind the front Friday morning...with a few gusts to 30
knots likely from midday to sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY






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