Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 012352
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

It never fails. Cancel the Watch, and the lone shower left
decides to pulse up.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC
considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or
locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists,
but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and
mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most
part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will
diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight.
Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern
sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model
discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just
slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night
through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE
of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS
blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast
beyond tonight was an even blend of model output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western
limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of
the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a
more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low
will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity
mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois
counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a
differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon
hours.

By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High
Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and
places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least
early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking
pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the
Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson
Bay low.  The combination of all of these systems impresses and
maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Will have to watch for showers and possibly thunderstorms at KEVV
and KOWB through about 06Z, then the front should be through all
TAF sites with a modest northwest breeze expected overnight. A
large mass of lower MVFR ceilings will shift east southeast and
may impact KEVV for much of Monday. Not sure how far south it
will make it into our area, so will keep the ceilings out of KOWB
for now. 4-5kft ceiling is likely to develop over the remainder of
the area in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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