Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 292326
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
726 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather is expected for the beginning of the
week. The passage of a mid week cold front should return seasonal
temperatures to the region Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Only real change for the evening update is to trim PoPs and sky
cover, as drier air is quickly taking hold over the forecast area.
Surface high pressure centered over Lake Huron is resulting in a
breath of fresh air with the light northerly flow. Dewpoint
temperatures are already creeping into the mid 50s north of
Pittsburgh.

Clear skies and nearly calm winds should allow overnight lows to
drop about 5 degrees below last nights values. With high pressure
remaining over the region again tomorrow, mostly sunny skies
should continue to prevail. Tuesday`s high temperatures should be
at or slightly above today`s highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main weather maker through this part of the forecast will be a
cold front moving across the region Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Models are showing the front making a slightly later
arrival, and have also delayed arrival of pops slightly in the
forecast. The main focus will be during the afternoon and evening
hours. Have stuck with broad chance pops as forcing does not
appear to be terribly strong with this system. With only light
precipitation expected, the bigger impact from the front will
likely come from the lower temperatures that will be ushered in,
with high temperatures remaining in the 70s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be the dominant feature through the extended
resulting in dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. Temperatures
will start out slightly below normal and trend warmer each day as
heights build. Limited cloud coverage will allow for a broad
diurnal range in temperatures with abundant sunshine during the
day and strong radiational cooling at night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period. Some MVFR
or even IFR fog is possible south of PIT around daybreak as
dewpoints remain a bit higher in this area, making crossover
temperatures more achievable. However, drier air will attempt to
continue to filter in from the north, complicating the picture.
Ended up adding some light fog for several terminals, but
confidence is a bit low at this time. Fog will lift by 13Z with
VFR conditions in thin cirrus thereafter. Winds will remain light
through Tuesday.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible with a cold front Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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