Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 211327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDTIONS TODAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH.
LTD...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BRIEF BOUT
OF SHWRS DURING THE MRNG. QPF UNDR THIS SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT A
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.

NR TERM TEMPS WITH INSOLATION IN WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF FRONT WERE
FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS USING PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF
FRONT...AND MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. WITH MRNG TIMING AND LACK
OF CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSIS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SHWR WORDING ONLY.

COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS...BUT QUICKL MODERATION BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORMS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW
DVLPS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT
APCHS THE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL
MAINTAIN STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AND
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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