Area Forecast Discussion
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840
FXUS61 KPBZ 170108
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
908 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is likely with a cold front Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures will stay warm through the seven day forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A quasi-stationary boundary continues to linger near the I-70
corridor in Ohio and slinks southward toward the I-68 corridor
east of Morgantown. Weak low-level convergence along this
boundary along with some instability and higher dewpoints to its
south has managed to muster a few showers along it, particularly
in Ohio. Given we are now past our diurnal heating maximum, and
there has been no thunder to this point, it would seem thunder
development is unlikely at this point. This front will start to
wander northward in Ohio over the next few hours, which will
bring the slight chance of showers northward just a few counties
before they dissipate overnight.

High clouds look to increase toward morning ahead of the next
system to affect the area. This should keep fog coverage down a
bit, however the return of southerly flow by morning should
start an increase in dewpoints, as well. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As the warm front moves north across the forecast area Thursday,
it will touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms. More
widespread rain will arrive by late afternoon into the evening
hours. Our Ohio counties are in a marginal risk for severe
weather, with there still being some uncertainty as to the
particular timing of the storms and how that might contribute to
instability. Considering high resolution model depictions of the
line are still showing broken coverage of thunderstorms, did
not have enough confidence to bump up pops to categorical.

Scattered showers will continue on Friday in advance of the cold
front itself moving through the region. Weather will dry out
Friday night, but another wave could possibly set off some
isolated showers on Saturday with colder air working its way
across Lake Erie. Magnitude of cold air at 850mb might not be
enough to produce actual lake effect showers, but should at
least provide partly to mostly cloudy skies. The frontal passage
should bring temperatures back towards normal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad high pressure will build across the region for the end of
the weekend into the beginning of the work week. A cold front
should then bring a chance of rain back to the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near average,
building into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Mid/high clouds should increase overnight ahead of an
approaching warm front, which should limit the fog potential
except for FKL/DUJ where clear skies should hold until late
tonight.

Low pressure is expected to track across the upper Great Lakes
rgn Thu as the warm front lifts N across our area. This should
result in scattered showers initially, with sct thunderstorms
expected with building instability through the afternoon.
Included a VCTS mention by mid aftn for most ports. Better
shortwave support Thu eve should result in more widespread
showers/storms.


.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely through Fri morning as the low`s cold
front crosses.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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