Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG WITH 850MB WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND
THEREFORE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH RECURRING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PREDICT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEATING DOWN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE BY THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THE
REGION AS IT DISSIPATES. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE POPS BACK ON FRIDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM DAY.
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRINGS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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