Area Forecast Discussion
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921
FXUS61 KPBZ 312214 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
614 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and generally dry weather can be expected through Wednesday.
A cold front will increase rain chances for the latter half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast appears to be in fine shape. Only fly in the ointment is
the incoming cirrus currently providing ovc sky at many sites...which
may serve to slow radiational cooling overnight.

Therefore...overnight temps were adjusted slightly to reflect a
slower rate of cooling than previously forecasted. Previous
discussion follows...

Expect morning lows near, to about 5 degrees, above the averages
as radiation promotes a comfortable night in the wake of a reinforcing
front sagging over the area this evening. Tweaked MOS guidance was
used to forecast the readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and warm weather can be expected Wednesday under slowly eroding
high pressure. Models remain in overall agreement in depictions of
a shortwave/associated cold frontal approach Wednesday night and
Thursday, with gradual pop escalation to "likely" numbers by
Thursday. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the
warm, moist advection in advance of the system. The latest MOS
guidance was combined with the SUPERBLEND depiction to forecast
temperatures for the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little change to previous thinking as model guidance suggests
that the front will lag in complete passage until Friday with
chance pops maintained. While differences in evolution of the
pattern over the weekend into early next week remain, overall
trend of developing and deepening mid and upper level trough
continues in all models, as a series of shortwaves move through
the base of the trough. Will keep shower chances through the
period. Temperatures were forecast 5 to 10 degrees below average
by early next week using superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will maintain general VFR for the TAF period with
exceptions for peri-dawn fog at southern ports where low level
moisture may pool as a reinforcing front sags through the region
today.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Update...Kramar



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