Area Forecast Discussion
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118
FXUS61 KPBZ 260246
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
946 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will result in dry and mild conditions
through the first part of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid and high clouds continue to linger over the area even in the
post-frontal environment. This is largely due to ascent aloft
from the right entrance region of a back-building upper jet
streak while low level dry air has already built into the region
enough to ensure that ascent aloft has no chance to produce
precipitation. That said, the jet streak lingers in its current
position through around 15z on Monday, so mid and upper clouds
will linger into the morning hours before they finally start to
slink southeastward into the latter half of the morning.

As the jet pushes east on Monday, subsidence reigns, and dry air
further pushes in, sunshine will allow temperatures to jump back
up above normal yet again. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will center itself over the central Appalachians
by Tuesday. Developing southwest flow behind the high Tuesday
will allow a bit of warming, with some 60 degree readings
reappearing near the Mason-Dixon Line.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shortwave trough, strengthening over the central CONUS
Wednesday, will tap into southern stream moisture, pulling it
northward toward the region. A weak wave in the flow may allow
for some shower activity Wednesday but the better chance, at
least at this juncture, will be Thursday as the warm front lifts
over the upper Ohio Valley. A split- flow pattern is indicated
in the long term guidance as a low wraps up just south of the
Great Lakes and another forms off the coast. This may be
favorable for a dry slot/diminished QPF, which is something we
need at this time. Still, with this system a few days away,
stayed close to a blend of guidance, which has likely to
categorical PoPs Thurs and Thurs night. System translates
quickly eastward by Friday, with cooler temperatures and a
chance of snow returning. Showery precipitation will continue
in northwest flow through Friday night before tapering off
Saturday as midlevel ridging approaches.

Temperatures will run above average until the system late in the
week passes, and then cool back to seasonal normals for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected through the period under building high pressure.
Gusty west winds will lessen by this evening as the pressure
gradient relaxes.

OUTLOOK...
High pressure building in for early this week will limit
restriction potential.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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