Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 140910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIGID AIR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS FORCED TEMPERATURES TO THEIR COLDEST OF THE SEASON. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS REMAIN. SO WE WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, SO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MOST PLACES NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS, OR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY,
BEFORE THE GUSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS EVENING,
AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE COLD AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING,
THE FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD LESSEN AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED WATER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND WATER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON, SO FAR.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECOD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY.

        2015-16          FEBRUARY 14   FEBRUARY 14
SITE    COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW    RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
----    --------------   -----------   -------------------

ABE         8            -1 IN 1979       14-1979

ACY        10            -6 IN 1979       13-1979

PHL        12            +2 IN 1979       14-1979

ILG        12            -4 IN 1979       13-1979

RDG        10            -4 IN 1983

TTN         9             0 IN 1916

GED        13            -7 IN 1979

MPO        -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...STAFF


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