Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 221329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
929 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Weak high pressure will be across the Middle Atlantic region today
and tonight. Low pressure will cross north of the area Friday and
Saturday. Its associated front will slowly cross the area Saturday.
More high pressure will be over the area Sunday. Another disturbance
will bring some showers to the area early next week.


The weak front is beginning to slowly lift north, leading to
warm and muggy conditions today. Highs today will generally top
off in the upper 70s to low 80s across the Poconos and NW NJ,
and in the mid to upper 80s across the Lehigh Valley and much of
NJ. Highs will be around 90 in the Delmarva. Highs will be
several degrees cooler, generally in the upper 70s to low 80s,
right along the shores.

A weak surface trough coincident with a mid and upper level
short wave trough develops across western PA and tracks east
through the day. This may touch off a few late day showers and
thunderstorms across the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Will cap
PoPs at slight chance, as confidence and coverage is low.


ny lingering showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north of I-
76, will taper off this evening.

High pressure continues to drift offshore tonight. Return flow
setting up behind the departing high will usher an increasingly
humid airmass into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Surface dewpoints
will climb into the upper 60s and low 70s, and PWATs will climb to
around 2".

Meanwhile, moisture and some shortwave energy associated with what
is currently Tropical Storm Cindy over the TN Valley lifts into the
Appalachians tonight, and then towards the Northeast after midnight.
With ML MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg across northern NJ and
the Poconos, there is the potential for some thunderstorms in the
pre-dawn hours. Latest model guidance holds bulk of precip off until
after 12Z Friday, so will cap PoPs at chance across the region.
However, given the tropical nature of the airmass, can expect
locally heavy rain.


There will be some unsettled conditions across the region during the
beginning of the long term. A low pressure system will move across
the Great Lakes and southern Canada Friday through Saturday. A slow
moving front, an upper level trough and moisture from Cindy will all
reach the area by Saturday. This will bring chcs for showers and a
few tstms Friday and a better chc for rains Saturday. We now have
likely pops for most areas Saturday. There is still some
differences with regards to if the best moisture arrives over
our area, or gets shunted off to the east. Temperatures will be
a bit above normal Friday and closer to normal for Saturday,
with more clouds expected.

Behind the departing system on Sunday, most areas will have fair
weather with partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be
mostly in the low/mid 80s over the region.

The weakening upper trough will move across the Northeast and Middle
atlantic region Monday night and Tuesday. we have included some small
chc or slgt chc pops for these periods. Temperatures will be a
little below normal with highs in the upper 70s north and low 80s
across srn NJ and Delmarva.


The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through today and this
evening. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
west of the fall line (including KRDG and KABE) this afternoon
and evening, but the coverage is expected to be very limited so
have not included it in the TAFs at this time. Southwesterly winds
increase to 5-10 KT with gusts up to 17-18 KT this afternoon.
A sea breeze may develop this afternoon, shifting the winds to
southeasterly. The TAF sites that have the highest chance to be
affected by a sea breeze are KACY and KMIV.

Tonight...Any lingering SHRA/TSRA near KRDG and KABE will taper
off this evening. Winds are expected to be light and variable.
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible, mainly after 06Z as lower
clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms begin to move in
from the southwest.

Fri and Fri night...Mostly VFR. Sct showers and a few tstms.
Sat...A period of MVFR or IFR expected. Showers. Sat night thru
Monday...Mostly VFR. Sct showers Monday.


Light winds this morning become S 8-12 KT this afternoon and
tonight. Ocnl gusts up to 20 KT possible this afternoon. Seas will
average 3-4` on the ocean and waves will average 1-2` on DE Bay.

Fri...Sub-SCA with a chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night thru Sat night...SCA on the ocean and sub-SCA on Del
   Bay. Showers with a chance for tstms.
Sun thru Mon...Sub-SCA with sct showers Monday.

We are forecasting a low or low enhanced risk for the formation
of dangerous rip currents today. The southerly short period
swell and long period southeasterly swell are both forecast to
slowly subside this morning. A light offshore wind will shift
southeast today.

Even with a low risk...the bigger diurnal difference in the tide
cycle as we approach the date of this months new moon could mean
some rapidly changing conditions. IF you`re a poor swimmer (dont
overrate your swimming skill please), you should absolutely swim
within sight of the life guards. AND... if you get caught in a
rip current or the backwash of the incoming waves is tiring,
relax and remain calm! It`s much easier to think about escape
and for the lifeguards to rescue.


High astronomical tide levels are expected in association with the
new moon on Friday. That, combined with increasing southerly flow,
looks to result in minor coastal flooding with the afternoon and
evening high tide primarily for the Atlantic coastal areas and the
shores of the Delaware Bay. Will go ahead and issue a Coastal Flood
Advisory for those areas this evening, as departures will range from
around 1 foot to 1.5 feet. This is enough to hit minor coastal flood
advisory thresholds. Minor coastal flooding may continue with the
Friday afternoon and evening high tide.


NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for DEZ003-004.


Near Term...Johnson/MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O`Hara
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