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000
FXUS61 KPHI 200335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1135 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES, BEFORE MOVING EAST AND OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN LIKELY TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR AREA, BRINGING INCREASING
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PRIOR EVENING FCST. FAIR WX...PATCHY
HIGH BASED SC. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGH BASED SCT SC... 6000-7000 FT.
COOLING SEA BREEZES. 50/50 BLENDED 00Z/20 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE SHOULD
OFFER MAX TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR OF THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WX CONTINUES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. LOW TEMPS A TAD
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAWN IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINNING TO FINALLY
LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL KEEP A
PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH IT HAS A HIGHER LATITUDE. WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW
ALOFT AND INTRODUCE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM.

SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO REALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY RECEDING BACK TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. LOOKS OF SINKING AIR WILL BE TAKING PLACE GIVING US
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PRECIPITATION FREE. WE WILL HAVE A PRETTY
WEAK SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS THE
CORE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SO WE CAN EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S. BY SUNDAY THE
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
AND A STRONGER RETURN FLOW KICKS IN. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN SPOTS EQUATING TO DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO
90F FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM.

THIS RETURN FLOW WILL REALLY BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER-60S AT THE SAME
TIME MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGING. THIS INCREASES OUR CHANCES AT SEEING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONGTERM. MOST OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z THU...VFR PATCHY CLOUDS NEAR 7000 FT. PATCHY FOG IN
THE COUNTRYSIDE AFTER 06Z. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 12Z THU...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT. SW WIND WITH ANY GUSTS
UNDER 15KT EXCEPT SE SEA-BAY BREEZES DEVELOPING KACY-KMIV-KILG BY
AFTERNOON.

THU NIGHT...VFR CLEAR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.  PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN
THE COUNTRYSIDE AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG/HAZE.
VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR OR LOWER IN MORNING
FOG/HAZE AND THEN AGAIN IN  POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THU NIGHT. A PERSISTENT 2 FT SE SWELL OF 8 TO
10 SEC ON THE OCEAN WATERS. MAINLY S G UNDER 15KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD OFR FRI-MON. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SLIGHTLY VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WILL UPDATE AT 330 AM.

WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR NJ AND DELAWARE COASTS ARE NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AS OF JUNE 19.

RISK RIP CURRENT FORMATION PROJECTION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
GENERALLY LOW. IT GETS CLOSE TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY ALONG THE NJ
COAST AS WE APPROACH FULL MOON.

DATA INTO THE PROJECTIONS AT 330 AM THURSDAY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
IT APPEARS JUNE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL...DEPARTURES
INCREASING MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE FROM WHERE THEY WERE THROUGH
JUNE 18. WE`LL HAVE A BIT MORE INFORMATION FOR PHILADELPHIA AT 5AM
THURSDAY.

SO WHILE THE EXCESSES OF SPRING 2013 WERE NOT REPEATABLE...WE ARE
STILL RUNNING A SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL APRIL-JUNE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/NIERENBERG  1133
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG 1133
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/HEAVENER/NIERENBERG 1133
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/HEAVENER 1133
RIP CURRENTS...1133
CLIMATE...1133