Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 242354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
554 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

An upper level trough is spreading across the Plains this
afternoon. Ahead of the trough large scale lift resulted in
yet another round of widespread moderate to locally heavy
rainfall developing across the region this morning into this
afternoon. This round of rain will not be as long lived as the
rains that occurred yesterday and last night. A front is currently
spreading east across the area and the rain is steadily ending
from west to east this afternoon. The back edge of the rain has
already spread well into Missouri and will continue spreading
east with the rain ending across the eastern Ozarks by early this
evening if not by late this afternoon.

With the ground saturated from the recent rains the region has
received, this additional rain is just adding to the flood risk.
Many low water crossings, low lying areas, streams, creeks, and
rivers are flooding across the area, and likely will remain
flooded through the overnight hours even well after the rain comes
to an end.

Instability has increase from south to north across Arkansas
today and is now starting to creep into south central Missouri. A
line of storms has developed across Arkansas in the area of
increased instability. The northern edge of the line of storms
will continue to spread east and expand a little north as
instability continues to gradually increase north into south
central Missouri. A severe risk will continue for areas
southeast of a Theodosia to Salem Missouri line through the rest
of the afternoon. The main risk will be scattered strong wind
gusts of 50 to 60mph. Pea size hail may be possible in the
stronger updrafts but the hail risk is low with this activity.

Low level shear is quite strong across the area as 0-3km bulk
shear vectors are northeast at around 50kt. The better thermo
will remain south of the area, but there may be just enough thermo
get able to develop across south central MO that the line may be
able to become slightly shear dominate to near balanced for a
short period this afternoon. If this occurs any surges to the
east or east northeast would result in meso vort development and
the potential for a brief spin up tornado risk across south
central Missouri. This risk will still be on the low side in south
central Missouri as the better instability remains to the south.
The severe risk will end by late this afternoon as the line
spreads east of the area.

Surface high pressure will spread into the region tonight,
clearing the skies out and allowing lows to drop into the upper
20s to the lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Sunny and dry conditions will occur Sunday and Monday as short
wave upper level ridging will spread towards then over the region.
Highs early in the week will top out in the 60s.

Another upper level trough will then approach and spread through
the area during the middle of the week. As a result additional
showers and storms will be possible across the area from Tuesday
night into Thursday morning. At this time medium range models are
keeping the heaviest rains south of the area but will have to
watch the exact track of this system.

Late this week into next weekend dry and warm conditions will
occur as highs in the 50s and 60s occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

IFR ceilings will persist this evening behind a passing cold
front. There will also be patchy drizzle early this evening which
will reduce visibility to the low end MVFR or high end IFR range
at times. Winds will also remain gusty out of the west to
northwest behind the front.

Skies will then clear later tonight with VFR returning. Winds will
also become light and gradually shift to the southwest on Sunday.


MO...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MOZ057-058-069>071-

KS...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for KSZ101.



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