Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KSGF 080541
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015

...More Torrential Rain and Flooding Late Tonight and Wednesday...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

Radar trends show convection increasing from eastern Oklahoma into
northern Arkansas as we head into the overnight hours. This was
occurring ahead of a shortwave trough lifting northeast from the the
Red River Valley toward southeastern Kansas and southwestern
Missouri. Meanwhile the 925 MB front stretched across far southern
Missouri along the Highway 60 corridor.

The low level jet will strengthen overnight in response to the
approaching shortwave and interact with the 925 MB front.
Increasing moisture transport and convergence will set up across
southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas as we head toward 09z (4
AM) and into Wednesday morning while there will be some increase
in upper level diffluence.

The result will be an increase in the coverage and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms overnight with marked increase expected after
08z (3 AM) into Wednesday morning.

A rich theta-e axis, precipitable water values near 2.25 inches,
and a deep warm layer will lead to torrential rainfall rates.

Additional heavy rainfall will impact areas here flooding occurred
Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is also expected to spread into much of
the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas.

While the exact location of heaviest rainfall is yet to be
determined it appears areas generally west of Gainesville to Rolla
line will see the highest rain totals through Wednesday morning.

Indications are that very heavy rain will impact southwestern
Missouri and far southeastern Kansas from Branson and Springfield
west to Joplin and Columbus Kansas heading into the morning
commute.

In summary the potential for torrential rainfall and significant
flooding continues.

Emergency managers, response agencies and all area interests should
closely monitor the latest weather information through the night
into Wednesday and be prepared for flash flooding.

As observed Tuesday, flooding may impact areas where flooding is
less common.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

Surface front currently extends roughly along the I-44 corridor into
a surface low over southwest Missouri. An MCV was also located
along the Red River in southwestern Oklahoma.

Convection had begun to move southeastward into Arkansas late this
morning but now appears to be edging slowly northward again over
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  The H8 winds to the south of
the frontal zone are still in the 20-30 kt range over this same area.

The surface front should continue to make its way southward to the
Missouri-Arkansas border by this evening before stalling out.  As the MCV
approaches the region tonight and the low level jet sets up again
this evening...training storms and resultant heavy rain will
continue overnight. The heaviest rainfall amounts should occur in an
area from the Missouri-Arkansas border to the I-44 corridor and
occurring between 1AM-1PM.

The focus of the heavy rain will gradually shift northward following
the front on Wednesday as the upper wave moves across and a surface
low moves up the front.  The axis of heavier rain will gradually
move north of the I-44 corridor over areas that have also seen
substantial rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

The surface front will remain in the area through Friday but an
upper level ridge begins to build in and retrograde to the west.
While rain is still in the forecast...current QPF is indicating
less than three-quarters of an inch from Wednesday night into
Friday.

Once high pressure builds in...will have a dry spell for the
weekend with a return to more seasonal temperatures. There will be
a chance for more rain toward the end of the forecast period as we
get into a northwest flow situation on the eastern side of the
upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 730 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through the period as low
level cloudiness and rainfall will cause ceilings and visibility
issues across all terminals. Patchy fog will persist overnight
with moderate to heavy rain limiting visibilities heading into
Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear will develop Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Frye






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.