Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Thunderstorm complex over the I-70 corridor and slightly north
early this morning. IR satellite shows continued regeneration and
cold cloud tops across much of central MO from west to east. PW
values of 2.25 to 2.5" were across this area so very efficient
rain producers. Low level jet was nosing into west central MO with
a surface front from southwest to northeast near this same axis
lending to the continual redevelopment of convection.

We are expecting this activity to gradually trend southeastward
into our area during the remainder of the overnight hours into
Thursday, with the convection the primary focus in the short term.
Looking into the long term, a break from the heat is expected for
much of the period with temperatures trending back into the 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the rest of the overnight period, we are expecting coverage of
thunderstorms to increase across our northern CWA, especially
along and north of the I44 corridor. Heavy rain will be the main
risk as the area of high PW values ahead of the shortwave/front
extend further south into central and southern MO. 850 mb jet
streak will remain active south of the low which will be across
central MO towards sunrise. Not expecting severe weather, but
locally heavy rainfall across the same areas may lead to some
isolated flooding, despite the recent dry spell. For now, we will
handle this with the hazardous weather outlook and situation
report, as we are not expecting widespread flooding at this point.

As the day progresses, shortwave energy will track southeast
across the area and the front along with several waves of low
pressure will slowly shift southeast across the CWA. Thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall will be possible throughout the day with a
gradual shift from northwest to southeast.

We are expecting the highest QPF early this morning across central
MO where a widespread 1 to 1.5 inches of rain will be possible,
although localized areas of 2 to 3 inches will not be out of the
question. We are expecting the least amount of rain in the far
southwest part of the CWA.

The cloud cover and rainfall will put an end to the extreme heat
we have had for the past couple of weeks with highs from the low
80s in the northeast to low 90s southwest.

The front will push south of the area tonight with precipitation
gradually ending from northwest to southeast and should move
completely out of the area by Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Drier air will push into the area from the north on Friday into
Friday night. It will also be cooler as we remain in a northwest
flow aloft with a trough axis across the eastern U.S. This will
bring much more reasonable temperatures to the region for much of
the long term period with highs in the 80s and lows from the upper
50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: The area of showers that
affected the area this morning has now spread south into Arkansas
early this afternoon. VFR conditions will occur through the
afternoon hours.

A front will bring additional scattered shower/storm chances to
the area this evening. Winds will shift to the north behind the
front. Ceilings will also lower into the MVFR and possibly the IFR
range late tonight into Friday morning.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
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