Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021102

602 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Stratus continues to struggle to dissipate over the region this
morning. The past hour or so of IR satellite imagery indicates
this deck is once again expanding in coverage, with high level
clouds entering from the west. Temperatures will largely remain
in the 50s prior to daybreak, with the coolest readings in areas
where skies have cleared.

Today will once again feature a healthy mix of clouds and sun.
Short range high res models (HRRR/ARW/NMM/etc.) have been rather
persistent with developing a few showers across KS today. This is
associated with a north-south oriented area of weak isentropic
upglide (as noted on the 310K level), coincident with a bit of
elevated CAPE. The isentropic upglide and elevated instability
remain confined to our west today, but a few showers may come
close enough to our extreme southeastern KS counties to warrant
slight chance PoPs.

A little more sun will result in warmer conditions today, with
everyone likely getting into the 70s (warmest west, coolest east).
Tonight, quiet conditions are expected with lows in the 50s/60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Upper level ridge will have a tenuous hold on our weather regime.
The exact positioning of the ridge will greatly determine when
rain chances will creep into the area. A mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is expected to develop across Neb/IA Wednesday
night. System motion vectors from the NAM suggest that this MCS
could clip central MO. The GFS/ECMWF suggest a more west-to-east
system motion, keeping the complex to our north. This will be
something to watch with future model runs. The exact position of
the upper ridge seems to be the key.

From Friday into the upcoming weekend, the upper ridge looks to
shift just far enough to our west to open the door to occasional
bouts of showers/storms. A surface boundary will set up close to
central MO and the eastern ozarks Friday and Saturday, and this is
where the better chances for showers/storms will be. A more
substantial shortwave passage is possible on Sunday, which will
increase rain chances across the entire area. Northwest flow kicks
in early next week, shunting rain chances (for the time being) to
our southeast.

Temperatures will return to near average for early June as we head
into the latter half of this week into this weekend. Highs will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

IFR ceilings can be expected early this morning at area terminals through
about 14z with an improvement in ceilings late this morning.
There may be some brief light fog as well through 14z. Conditions
will become VFR by midday today through the afternoon with
scattered clouds around 4k feet. Winds will be light southeasterly
less than 10 knots through the next 24 hours.




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