Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 172016
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
316 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure still reigns across the region with continued very
dry air and not a cloud in the sky. However this ridge may break
down slightly sooner as it appears their could be some warm air
advection showers out ahead of next deep upper trough by Friday
aftn over ne TX. Nam model also suggesting a wave out of the gulf
pushing moisture from se LA towards the area by Friday. Keeping
pops on the low side into Saturday until the main deep upper
trough enters Red River valley that aftn with pops increasing as
this trough attempts to close off. Assumming the trough does not
completely close off, trough and weak assoc frontal boundary to
slowly move across area durg the day Sunday with pops tapering
from the nw by eve. Stronger dynamics, especially in the upper
lvls, may signal possible squall line with stg storms, although
too early to indicate any svr wx event attm. In the meantime,
expect radiation cooling overnight with lows nearly as cool as
last night, but likely remaining in the 40s areawide. Gradual
warming trend with highs back up around 80 for the rest of week
and overnight lows largely into the 50s after tonight./07/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 17/18Z TAF period, as
SKC will prevail. Sfc ridging will remain in place from the OH
Valley SW into Ecntrl TX this afternoon and tonight, before
weakening/shifting E of the area Wednesday. Thus, a very dry air
mass will remain in place through Thursday before it begins to
modify in response to a gradually increasing SErly low level
flow. ENE winds 4-6kts this afternoon will become Lt/Vrb or calm
after 00Z Wednesday. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  47  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  48  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  79  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  45  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  45  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  47  81  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  46  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  48  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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