Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300011
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 20KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COOL FRONT OVER SE OK AND N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
I-30 OVERNIGHT AND DOWN TO ABOUT I-20 AND STALL WITH VARIABLE
WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S RESPECTIVELY THIS
CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU. ALOFT...WE ARE SW
10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO 50KTS ABOVE
FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 20 MPH ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WINDS TO SETTLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. COULD SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN-MOST BOUNDARY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT. STORMS TO
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK.

NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO
LOWS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH SURGES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  72  61  79 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  60  74  58  80 /  30  30  10  20
DEQ  55  72  58  75 /  60  10  20  30
TXK  57  70  59  75 /  60  20  20  30
ELD  57  70  58  76 /  50  30  20  30
TYR  61  72  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  61  72  61  77 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  63  76  61  81 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/05



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