Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 282114
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
414 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low just off the Texas coast has provided some
enhanced vertical ascent that has resulted in widespread showers
and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico. Onshore coverage has
been considerably more scattered. Some of this convection is
finally moving northwest into our far southern zones of Deep East
Texas and Central Louisiana. These storms will be largely
diurnally driven and should gradually diminish this evening as
daytime heating wanes. Showers and thunderstorms should spread
farther north across the area Thursday as the upper trough moves
east along the Gulf coast and a weak front near the coast moves
northward. Rain chances will mainly be southeast of Interstate
30, and the best chances will be across Central Louisiana. More
thunderstorm chances are expected during the day Friday as the
trailing trough axis and diffuse frontal boundary lift north.

By late Friday, the pattern will transition into a more zonal, or
west-northwest flow as a broad, positively-tilted upper trough
moves across the Plains. This will allow a cold front to slowly
move south into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Thunderstorm complexes
should develop along this front during the day Friday, which will
then move into the area Friday night and early Saturday.
These storms may re-intensify Saturday during peak daytime
heating across our area, while another complex develops along the
front to our north, which will again move southward towards the
region Saturday night. This pattern will persist until late Sunday
when the upper trough axis moves across the area and into the
Eastern CONUS.

Dry weather is expected on Monday as a shortwave ridge moves
overhead. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will become possible
across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas once again on
Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak trough moves across the Central
Plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

AVIATION...

For the 28/18Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR flight
categories through the afternoon and evening with returning gulf
moisture returning MVFR flight categories with ceilings lowering
to between 1-3 kft and possible 3-5 statute miles visibility
restrictions. Between 29/09Z-29/14Z many sites will lowering to
IFR and below conditions. MVFR flight categories will be returning
during the mid morning to mid day with some sites returning to VFR
flight categories. Surface winds will be Southeast 6-12 knots
through the afternoon and into the middle of the evening, before
lowering to 3-7 knots. The surface winds will be returning to 7-14
knots after 29/15Z Thursday. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  89  76  92 /  10  40  10  40
MLU  73  87  73  90 /  10  50  20  50
DEQ  70  92  73  91 /   0  10  10  40
TXK  72  91  75  91 /   0  20  10  40
ELD  71  89  74  90 /  10  30  20  40
TYR  73  92  76  92 /  10  20  10  20
GGG  72  90  75  92 /  10  30  10  30
LFK  73  92  76  92 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/06


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