Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 031013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ON
AIR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WE DO HAVE A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AT 2KFT. OUR KSHV 88D
RADAR IS SHOWING RAGGED DEVELOPMENT...BUT NONE THE LESS...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SIMILAR RESOLUTIONS ON HRRR AND OTHERS ALBEIT NOT VERY
GOOD RUNS. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH IS
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH QPF AND THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

AT THIS TIME...WELL ARE UNDER AN AREA OF GREAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR. THEREFORE...WE ARE IN POSITION FOR
AN MCS WHICH MAY BE COMING TOGETHER AT THIS TIME. THE RELATIVE
DYNAMICS WILL ONLY BE HEIGHTENED WITH HEATING..BUT OUTFLOW WILL
DICTATE WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT SET UPS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR DAY 1. THE WPC QPF HAS BEEN
LOADED INTO OUR GRIDS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES AND HAS SOME 1 TO 3
INCH TOTALS THROUGH DAY THREE...LIKEWISE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

WE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAVORABLE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AREA BETWEEN
THE UPPER RIDGE NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE TROUGH(S) JUST
TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE OVER THE NE U.S.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN...DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION...WHICH WILL LINGER ALL WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO
THE DOMINANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING NEXT WEEK. SO WE WILL
LOOK FOR THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN TO RETURN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  74  89  74 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  90  74  88  73 /  30  60  60  40
DEQ  84  70  86  71 /  60  60  60  40
TXK  86  72  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  85  72  86  72 /  60  60  60  40
TYR  89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  30
GGG  90  74  90  74 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  92  75  91  74 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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