Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 020403
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1003 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN REINFORCED SWD INTO EXTREME SE
TX AND SCNTRL LA THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK PRESSURE
RISES AHEAD OF SFC RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY.
STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES THIS EVENING ATOP THIS VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR
DOME...WHICH THE SHORT TERM PROGS SHIFT FARTHER NWD INTO EXTREME
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK LATE. THUS...WHERE THE HIGHER MVFR CIGS ARE THIS
EVENING OVER THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF EXTREME NE TX INTO ADJACENT
SW AR N OF TXK...THESE SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS THIS
-RA/-DZ SPREADS NNE OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT A TAD FARTHER S
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS QUITE STABLE /PER THE
00Z KSHV RAOB/...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT/MONDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS A TAD THIS EVENING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR...BEFORE RAMPING THEM BACK UP TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY AFTER 06Z AS THE -SHRA SPREADS BACK NNE. TEMPS FOR
THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT /FROM THE 03Z
OBS/...WITH A 1-2 DEGREE FALL AT MOST EXPECTED. DID MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS...WITH THE SRN ZONES LOWERED A
COUPLE DEGREES AS THEY HAD FALLEN COOLER THAN THEIR PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MINS.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR BR/DZ/-RA TO PERSIST MUCH IF NOT OF THIS CYCLE WITH VERY
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. ALOFT...WE ARE RIGHT BACK TO SW FLOW BY 2KFT
15-30KT ON CLIMB INTO THE MID LEVELS AS SKIES CLEAR UNDER FRZ
LEVEL. A WEAK SFC FRONT STATIONARY ALONG I-10 WILL KEEP TO OUR
SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-10KTS...THEN LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD AND SFC
WINDS GUSTS FM SW 10-20KTS. OUTLOOK...IS FOR WARMER AND WETTER DAY
ON TUESDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY WED AM.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  50  50  69  53 /  70  70  40  50  70
MLU  43  47  47  70  58 /  70  70  40  50  60
DEQ  38  46  41  64  41 /  50  50  50  70  60
TXK  39  44  41  66  48 /  60  60  50  70  70
ELD  39  44  44  67  51 /  70  70  40  50  70
TYR  40  48  48  68  49 /  70  60  40  60  60
GGG  42  49  49  71  52 /  70  70  40  50  70
LFK  45  55  54  75  60 /  60  70  30  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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