Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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425
FXUS64 KSHV 260916
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
316 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers to increase in coverage from the west today as a surface
low deepens across north Texas and southwest upper-level flow
leads to increased instability. Warm air advection to increase
overnight allowing for an enhanced low-level jet across the
region. A weak warm front will shift north allowing for a chance
of thunderstorms overnight across much of the region. Temperatures
today to warm into the 60s across AR/OK and lower 7s0 across
TX/LA.

Showers and thunderstorms to continue into Monday. Tight pressure
gradient between surface high across east coast and a low in the
plains to continue to allow for southerly winds supporting
enhanced moisture advection from the gulf. Models somewhat
disagree on precip coverage across the ArkLaTex due to variability
in location of surface front. However, will maintain pops through
Monday simply based on instability.

Severe thunderstorms possible on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night as a mid-level trough and surface cold front shift east
across the ArkLaTex. Warm air advection from the south ahead of
the front may allow for a hail or tornado threat during the
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms along the cold front may
support a damaging wind and hail threat during the evening.
However, there is some uncertainty in the severe weather threat at
this time. One limiting factor may be that persistant cloud cover
across the region may limit instability necessary to generate
strong storms during this time period.

High pressure to rebuild across the region on Wednesday with dry
conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s each day. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1105 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites...with clear skies
and light and variable winds tonight. Southeast winds will develop
tomorrow after 15z...with mid and high level clouds increasing
through the day. MVFR conditions will develop after 02z in showers at
the east Texas taf locations...with local IFR conditions possible
in heavier showers. Palmer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  59  77  64 /  20  70  50  30
MLU  68  56  75  64 /  10  60  60  40
DEQ  61  47  68  57 /  40  70  50  20
TXK  63  53  71  62 /  30  70  50  30
ELD  65  53  71  61 /  10  70  50  30
TYR  65  59  77  64 /  40  70  50  20
GGG  67  59  76  64 /  30  70  50  20
LFK  70  61  79  65 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/05



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