Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 152048
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
248 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Trof axis extending from srn Baja up through the Great Lakes
region continues to tap Pacific moisture, which covers much of the
srn and sern CONUS. Nwd extent of the trof to continue ewd in
progressive nrn jet, but low center over Baja will cut off
overnight tonight. This may mean some time with very little cloud
cover, which will likely result in our overnight temps remaining
very near guidance.

As we move into Saturday, another disturbance will shoot down the
W Coast around the ern periphery of the upper ridge, kicking the
Baja low and a slug of Pacific moisture newd. Initial onset of
precip for us will be more of the isentropic nature, as light ely
winds will likely be in place Saturday aftn. However, developing
sfc low will and surging WAA/low level moisture will bring
widespread convective rains to the region Saturday night through
Sunday morning. Unfortunately, the disturbance will move through
rather quickly, and widespread rainfall amounts of only about an
inch or less are expected.

Sw flow aloft will remain, as the W Coast disturbance lingers over
AZ/NM before moving ewd Monday. Weak baroclinic zone left behind
from the weekend system will interact with disturbed sw flow, and
may bring some shwrs back to the sern portions of the region as
early as Sunday night. Models diverge on timing and precip
coverage with respect to the upper low`s ewd progression. The Euro
is closed, slower, and wetter, while the Canadian and GFS are
weaker, more progressive, and keep much of the associated
convection e of our region. Have tried to give some credence to
both solutions and kept PoPs more conservative than the blends
through midweek. With virtually no tap into colder Canadian air,
temperatures will warm this weekend to well above normal and
remain that way through the fcst pd. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF cycle. Light north-
northwest winds ensued across all the terminals this afternoon, with
highest speeds noted at ktyr /aoa 6 kts/. Concurrently,SCT-BKN
VFR CIGS continue to affect the TAF sites, with signs of thinning
this afternoon especially across the western terminals, but
thicker VFR CIGS are anticipated to return tonight. Sfc winds will
go light and variable /and even calm at some terminals/
overnight, and will veer to the south by tomorrow morning. Looking
a bit ahead, chances for rainfall will be on the increase
possibly commencing at klfk tomorrow aftn, with the precip
expanding to the remainder of the sites tomorrow evening/night.
/29/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  35  59  44  66 /   0  20  90  10
MLU  31  59  45  66 /   0  10  90  50
DEQ  27  60  41  58 /   0  10  80  10
TXK  32  58  43  60 /   0  10  90  10
ELD  30  59  42  64 /   0  10  90  30
TYR  35  59  44  65 /   0  30  90  10
GGG  33  60  42  65 /   0  20  90  10
LFK  36  59  44  67 /   0  30  90  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/29


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