Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 300001
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Sky conditions outside of convection has been mostly low vfr cigs,
except for portions of east TX, including KLFK, where steady
drizzly rain has produced low mvfr to ocnl ifr conditions. Isold
tstm movg north of KGGG and tstms just west and north of KTXK
attm. Line of stg to svr tstms west of cwa, and will slowly move
east across area overnight. Following passage of storms and
dryline, w-sw winds around 10 kts to increase to 15 to 20 kts in
aftn as vfr stratocu decks, possibly containing lgt rain at times,
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/
Updated the forecast to include the tornado watch number 175 for
parts of Northeast Texas. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 436 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave disturbance lifting across
north central Louisiana this afternoon, producing a cluster of
thunderstorms that is relatively slow moving. These thunderstorms
are putting down heavy rain, hail, and strong and gusty winds.
This is all elevated instability, as the cap that was on the 12z
sounding is still apparent on the special 20z sounding. At this
point in time, SPC is not anticipating issuing a warning for this
disturbance, but that could change.
Meanwhile, the cold front continues to push across Texas this
afternoon, and is to the Metroplex area at this time. Discrete
thunderstorms are developing out ahead of the cold front. A line
will eventually form and move across the region later this evening
and during the overnight hours. In the meantime, believe we could
see a watch for the discrete storms out ahead of the front in East
Texas later this afternoon or evening. Our entire region remains
under an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight.
The primary threats will continue to be large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornados.
This cold front will move through our area tonight, and quickly
exit during the day on Sunday. Temperatures tomorrow will likely
be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than those of today, as much cooler and
drier air filters in the region. Temperatures will warm back up
for the first part of the work week though, as southerly flow
returns to the region.
Another cold front and associated upper level low will approach
the region for Wednesday and Thursday, bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. At this point in time,
Wednesday looks like it will be the wetter day, but models are
hinting at the potential for wrap around showers continuing
through the day on Thursday, especially for our northern areas.
Daytime temperatures will likely fall into the back into the lower
70s by Thursday, with just a minor warming trend developing for
Friday and Saturday. Palmer
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 61 70 50 80 / 100 40 0 0
MLU 67 74 51 79 / 100 100 10 0
DEQ 56 66 42 75 / 100 20 10 0
TXK 58 67 47 75 / 100 30 0 0
ELD 62 71 47 77 / 100 70 10 0
TYR 54 68 47 79 / 100 20 0 0
GGG 57 67 47 79 / 100 20 0 0
LFK 60 71 48 83 / 100 30 0 0
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ARZ070>073.
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061.
LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-