Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 061727
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1026 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure continues to keep the air mass warm and dry.
Updated to raise most max temps for today and to bring hourly
forecast numbers more in line with observations. Otherwise,
forecast looks on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
High pressure will remain anchored along the US West coast through
Tuesday maintaining a NW flow aloft over the region. The airmass
remains dry with just some scattered to broken high clouds streaming
across the region today and tonight. A weak weather disturbance will
drop SE from Alberta into North-Central MT Saturday afternoon,
bringing another increase in cloudiness and possibly some isolated
showers late Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through
Saturday morning. Surface winds will become gusty again on the
plains this afternoon with the strongest winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2015/

Today through Sunday...An upper level ridge of high pressure will
dominate the weather pattern through this period. The area will
remain dry with breezy westerly winds and mild temperatures for
most of the period. Today will be the windiest day of the period,
as a strong surface pressure gradient will bring strong winds to
the Rocky Mountain Front. Am only expecting wind gusts there to
top out at about 45 to 55 mph (so am not anticipating a need for a
High Wind Warning there), while the remainder of north central
Montana will get gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. The only period
that could see a few showers is Saturday into Saturday evening. A
weak disturbance in the northwesterly flow aloft will drag a weak
frontal boundary south out of Canada, bringing a slight chance of
rain and mountain snow showers. Overall, the breezy downslope
winds will keep the area about 10 degrees warmer than normal
through the period. However, with the disturbance on Saturday,
temperatures then will be a few degrees cooler than the other
days, but not significantly cooler.
Coulston

Sunday night through Friday...Medium range models now in fairly
decent agreement. The period starts out mild and dry as a broad
upper ridge amplifies over the west coast and then moves east of
the Continental Divide Wednesday morning. The ridge flattens a
bit Wednesday afternoon as short wave energy moves through,
resulting in showers developing over the western mountains which
spread east over the plains Wednesday night and Thursday. By
Friday, the upper ridge rebuilds over western Montana with
isolated showers confined to the mountains. Later runs of the GFS
has resulted in warmer and drier conditions than earlier
versions. The GFS is now more in step with the European model
and, as a result, temperatures have been raised for the end of
the week. Afternoon readings for the period will be above
seasonal averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  31  53  30 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  55  28  50  27 /   0   0  20  10
HLN  56  33  55  32 /   0   0  10  10
BZN  57  26  54  27 /   0   0  10  10
WEY  42  12  44  13 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  55  29  56  28 /   0   0  10   0
HVR  59  25  50  24 /   0   0  20  10
LWT  50  29  48  28 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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