Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 242132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A FEW CU NOTED SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN SONORA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 21Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SHOW
VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TUCSON...THE FORECAST
HIGH OF 94 DEGREES F ON SATURDAY WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN
1990 AND 1959. EXPECT A FEW OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TO TIE/BREAK PREVIOUS RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD
AS WELL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 120W/25N WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG NEW MEXICO
BORDER. IN COORDINATION WITH THE OTHER ARIZONA OFFICES...HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/23Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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