Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 300446
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
946 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SOMEWHAT BUSY SHIFT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF SAHUARITA AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PICTURE ROCKS. FOR DETAILS
REGARDING STORM DAMAGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL STORM
REPORT VIA AWIPS HEADER `PHXLSRTWC` OR WMO HEADER `NWUS55 KTWC`.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN
UTAH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA WITH THE STRONGEST STORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE AROUND MINUS 67 DEGS C. CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM. ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH AND HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR.

WITH STEERING FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST...AND WITH
CONVECTION STILL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...DECIDED TO KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 87 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING A HIGH OF 106 DEGS...WHICH WAS 4
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KTUS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST OF TUCSON. THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED
GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. AMPLE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUED ELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY
CYCLE OF MAINLY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. 29/12Z
GFS/ECMWF REMAINED SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE
UPPER HIGH CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN EWD INTO
NERN NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MON. THIS POSITION MAY ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPER SELY FLOW REGIME. HAVE NOTED THAT
THE GFS DEPICTED A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON. IF THIS FEATURE IS
REALITY...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD BE INCREASED...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. WILL DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT SOLUTIONS FOR
CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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