Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 040410
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW CUMULFORM CLOUDS JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN GREENLEE COUNTY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT.
04/00Z NAM/GFS DEPICT ELY/SELY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WED DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION. THE EARLIER ONSET SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF SAFFORD...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE
04/00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO SHOULD THEN OCCUR IN THE FAVORED
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND PRONE LOCALES BY LATE WED MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL
HANDLED VIA THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS WED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE ELY/SELY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE
STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151.

THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MOST LIKELY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /223 PM MST/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL
BE THE SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IR AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTENDING INTO NEW
MEXICO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE
IN A POSITION THAT WILL STRADDLE THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND EXTEND
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MOS WIND GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
SLACKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS). AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MOSTLY AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR
NOW WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WINDS FOR
FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT SEEMS IT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. THAT SAID...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FOR THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 6 TO 8
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE AZZ150-151

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE



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