Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 021231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels with only background flare
activity observed this period.  Region 2614 (N06W15, Bxo/beta) continued
to exhibit moderate decay while Regions 2612 (N09W43, Dao/beta) and 2615
(S07E14, Dai/beta) underwent only minor decay and penumbral
consolidation this period.  New Region 2616 (N17W12, Cro/beta) emerged
on this disk.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days
(02-04 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 16,571 pfu observed at 01/1525 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
throughout the forecast period (02-04 Dec) and the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar
wind regime.  Total field strength (Bt) was steady between 4-5 5 nT
while the Bz component was mostly northward to 4 nT through 01/2300 UTC
and weakly southward to -3 nT through periods end.  Solar wind speeds
meandered between 330-390 km/s throughout the period while the Phi angle
was oriented in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain nominal until day three
(04 Dec) when the anticipated onset of a weak, positive polarity CH HSS
is likely to cause a minor solar wind enhancement.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (02-03
Dec) with quiet to unsettled levels likely on day three (04 Dec) due to
the weak influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.



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