Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 200031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low. Only regions of plage rotated across
the visible disk by the end of the day. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period
(20-22 Nov).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with
a peak flux of 1,480 pfu at 19/1430 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 20-21 Nov. Moderate to high levels are expected on 22
Nov due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
signatures of a SSBC but did not produce enhancements above nominal
conditions. Total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT and no
significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds
were between 340-405 km/s. Phi angle was variable with a transition from
the positive to the negative sector for the first half of the day and
back to the positive sector for the second half.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS on day one (20 Nov) and through day two (21
Nov). A waning trend in CH HSS enhancement is expected over day three
(22 Nov).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to active levels late on
day one (20 Nov) due to the onset of CH HSS influence. Unsettled to
active conditions are expected to persist over days two and three (21-22
Nov) as CH HSS effects persist.



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