Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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170
FXXX12 KWNP 241231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2626 (N08W69,
Axx/alpha) continued to decay, becoming a simple unipolar spot. Region
2627 (N06W18, Cao/beta) exhibited decay in its leader and intermediate
spots, while Region 2628 (N13W00, Eho/beta) had decay in its trailer
spots. Region 2628 did experience slight growth in its overall areal
coverage as it underwent separation between its leader and trailer
spots. All spot groups remained mostly inactive throughout the period.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
over the next three days (24-26 Jan) due to the flare potential from
Regions 2627 and 2628.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 1,184 pfu observed at 23/1750 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (24-26 Jan). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect waning CH HSS influence.
Solar wind speed began the period near 460 km/s before decreasing to
around 320 km/s near periods end. Total field averaged around 3 nT, but
saw a peak of 7 nT. The Bz component mainly ranged between +/-3 nT, but
saw a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a
positive (away) sector, with isolated oscillations into a negative
(towards) sector throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at mostly nominal levels
over the next three days (24-26 Jan) as CH HSS influence subsides.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels
during the forecast period (24-26 Jan) under a nominal, background solar
wind regime.



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