Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2241 (S08W77, Cko/beta),
Region 2242 (S17, L=241), and Region 2245 (N10E23, Bxo/beta) all
produced low level C-class flares during the period. The largest flare
of the period was a C3/2n flare at 24/0237 UTC from Region 2241. A
narrow coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with the C3 flare from
Region 2241, was first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at
24/0324 UTC departing the West limb. Analysis of this event indicated
the bulk of the ejecta had a mostly western trajectory and should not
have any significant impacts on Earth. All of the numbered regions on
the visible desk were either stable or exhibited decay to some degree.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class
(R3-Strong) flare on day one (25 Dec). Conditions are expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (26-27 Dec) as
Region 2242 completes its transit beyond the East limb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be slightly enhanced, but well
under 1 pfu (Below S1-Minor) through the majority of the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (25-26 Dec) with a slight chance
to reach high levels on day three (27 Dec). The 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit should see normal background conditions on all
three days (25-27 Dec) of the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained enhanced due to continued CME influence.
Total field began the period near 11 nT, but decreased shortly after the
new UT day to near 6 nT, where it remained for the rest of the period.
The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT before 24/1130 UTC, then
remained mostly negative near -4 nT thereafter. Solar wind initially
began the period near 460 km/s but quickly increased to near 600 km/s
where it remained for a few hours. Speeds then decreased slightly to
near 520 km/s where they remained for the vast majority of the period.
Phi angle oscillated between positive and negative for the bulk of the
period, but remained mostly in a negative orientation the latter half of
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced through the first half
of day one (25 Dec) as CME effects persist. A return to nominal solar
wind conditions is expected the latter half of day one into day two
(25-26 Dec) before becoming slightly disturbed on day three (27 Dec)
with the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole (CH).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24
hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels early
on day one (25 Dec) as CME influence persists. Conditions should briefly
return to quiet levels on day two (26 Dec) before a negative polarity CH
moves into a geoeffective position, bringing quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (27 Dec).



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