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FXXX12 KWNP 050031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2378 (S16E44, Cso/beta)
produced a C1 flare at 04/0008 UTC which was the largest event of the
period.  Region 2378 exhibited minor penumbral decay and consolidation
in its trailer spot area late in the period.  Region 2376 (N12E02,
Dao/beta) produced a B5/Sf flare at 04/1505 UTC and underwent minor
decay throughout the period.  The remaining six active regions on the
visible disk were either stable or in decay.

An eruptive prominence centered near N31E90 was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at 04/1915 UTC.  Coronagraph imagery and its location
suggests that the coronal mass ejection (CME) is directed away from the
Sun-Earth line.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (05-07 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at the
beginning and middle of the period, with a peak flux of 4,500 pfu
observed at 04/1235 UTC, but decreased to moderate levels after 04/1445
UTC due to increased geomagnetic field activity.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (05 Jul) and return to moderate to high
levels on days two and three (06-07 Jul).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the
forecast period (05-07 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient solar wind environment until
around 04/1200 UTC when the solar wind became enhanced due to the onset
of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind velocity increased
from initial values near 300 km/s to around 600 km/s by 04/2023 UTC.
IMF total field strength values increased from 5 nT to 23 nT and Bz
briefly reached a maximum southward component of -22 nT late in the
period.  The phi angle became highly variable after 04/0630 UTC.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to continued
CH HSS influence on day one (05 Jul) and through midday on day two (06
Jul) when CH HSS effects begin to wane.  CH HSS influence is expected to
subside by late day two/early day three (07 Jul) and solar wind
parameters are expected to begin a return to background levels.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until 04/1935 UTC
when G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions caused by the onset of a
CIR/CH HSS were observed.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on day one (05 Jul) and unsettled to active
levels on day two (06 Jul) due to continued CH HSS effects.  A return to
quiet to unsettled field activity is expected by day three (07 Jul) as
CH HSS influence subsides. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.