Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2146 (N07W58, Dki/beta-delta) remains the
largest threat for activity, producing a C5/Sf flare at 26/2325 UTC, as
well as a few low level, C-class flares over the period. The five
remaining regions on the solar disk were inactive and unremarkable.

.Forecast...
Although there is a general trend of decay noted among the regions on
the visible disk, a chance for M-class flares persists for days one
through three (27-29 Aug), Mostly due to Region 2146.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced during
the period but remained below alert thresholds with peak values today
less than 1 pfu. This enhancement was in response to a West limb CME
from 25 Aug.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (27-29 Aug).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels over the
next three days (27-29 Aug), with a slight chance for an minor (S1)
space radiation storm.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was nominal.  Wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft was generally at or below 310 km/s during the period.  Bz
ranged from 5 to -4 nT while Bt was below 5 nT for most of the period.
Bt increased to 7 nT after 26/1000 UTC, however Bz remained mostly
positive. Phi was generally positive through approximately 26/2130 UTC
when it transitioned to a negative orientation.  Low energy particle
flux detected by the EPAM instrument on ACE continued to indicate an
increasing trend, signaling the likely approach of the anticipated CME.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to indicate the anticipated arrival
of the 22 Aug CMEs at the onset of day one (27 Aug). CME conditions are
not expected to include a substantial solar wind speed increase, but a
magnetic response, while the magnetic cloud passes, is expected for
approximately 24 hours. Days two and three (28-29 Aug) should see both
the waning of the CME, as well as a transition into a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH/HSS). Wind speeds as high as 600 km/s
for day three have been forecast by the Wang Sheeley-Arge solar wind
model.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected with the chance for a minor
geomagnetic storm (NOAA Scale G1) for day one (27 Aug) in response to
anticipated CME effects from the pair of CMEs on 22 Aug. CME effects are
expected to wane on day two (28 Aug), replaced by the arrival of a
positive polarity CH/HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
for day two, and quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for day
three (29 Aug).


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