Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 241230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels this period.  Region 2638 (N18E15,
Cao/beta), the only region with sunspots, produced isolated low-level
C-class flare activity but continued a minor decay trend.

A filament eruption centered near S12E15 was observed in GONG H-Alpha
imagery beginning at around 24/0020 UTC but no associated CME was
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flare activity over the next three days (24-26 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels
this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three
days (24-26 Feb).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced this period due to the effects of a
positive polarity CH HSS.  Total field strength values varied between
6-12 nT until around 24/0400 UTC, when Bt became steady near 5 nT
through the remainder of the period.  The southward component of the
magnetic field varied between +10 and -11 nT and the solar wind speed
gradually increased from initial values near 475 km/s to around 630 km/s
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under continued CH
HSS influence on days one and two (24-25 Feb).  A gradual decrease in
solar wind speed is expected on day three (26 Feb) as CH HSS influence
weakens and subsides.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with an isolated
period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels observed between
24/0000-0300 UTC, due to the continued influence of a positive polarity
CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels for the
remainder of day one (24 Feb) through day two (25 Feb) due to continued
CH HSS effects.  Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected on day
three (26 Feb) as the CH HSS moves out of geoeffective position.



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