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FXXX12 KWNP 031231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. An unnumbered region behind the
southeastern limb produced a long-duration B7 flare that began at
02/2120 UTC and peaked at 02/2243 UTC. An associated coronal mass
ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
beginning at 02/2148 UTC but was not Earth-directed. Regions 2391
(N07W17, Axx/alpha) and 2393 (N18W01, Hax/alpha) both showed signs of
decay. New Region 2395 (N11E70, Hsx/alpha) was numbered during the
period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (03-05 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with an observed peak flux of 720 pfu at 02/1855 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the forecast period (03-05 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained enhanced under the waning influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds decreased overall from about 600 km/s to near 475 km/s by
periods end. Total field ranged between 4 nT to 6 nT while the Bz
component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a
predominately negative (towards) sector throughout the period.

A slow decline towards background levels is expected during the next
three days as CH HSS effects subside.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CH
HSS influence.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (03-04 Aug) as CH HSS activity subsides. Mostly quiet
levels are expected on day three (05 Aug). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.