Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
183
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Jan 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels this period. Region 2696
(S11E25, Bxo/beta) was stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (15-17 Jan).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
to high levels throughout the forecast period (15-17 Jan) following a
period of enhanced solar wind.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast
period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters this period reflected waning influences of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial
values near 500 km/s to end-of-period values around 475 km/s. Total
field strength ranged between 1-5 nT while the Bz component saw a
maximum southward deflection to -3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a
predominately positive sector through 15/1420 UTC when it moved into a
negative position.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly enhanced through day one
(15 Jan) under continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. A gradual
return to near-background solar wind conditions is expected to begin by
day two (16 Jan), and continue through day three (17 Jan), with the
return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet throughout the period, with an
isolated active period observed between 15/0000-0300 UTC due to CH HSS
influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one
(15 Jan). Generally quiet conditions are expected on days two and three
(16-17 Jan) as CH HSS effects subside.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.