Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020802
NEZ000-KSZ000-021000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN KS/SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514...

VALID 020802Z - 021000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL PERSISTS IN/NEAR WW 514.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH ONE STORM -- NOW
OVER NUCKOLLS CO. NEB -- REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED.  LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY RISK...GIVEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION.

WITH CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE QG ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION AND
ADVANCING LOW-LEVEL COLD SURGE ACROSS KS/NEB...RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST -- FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY.  WITH LIMITED -- BUT SUFFICIENT -- INSTABILITY EXTENDING
EWD INVOF THE NEB/KS BORDER...SOME POTENTIAL THAT HAIL RISK MAY
SPREAD E OF WW 514 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IS EVIDENT.  AS
SUCH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF SERN NEB/NERN
KS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 10/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39169880 40159848 41389815 41299764 40999644 39109679
            39169880



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