Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251451
NYZ000-PAZ000-251645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY...NRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251451Z - 251645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE FINGER LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN PORTIONS OF ITS OUTFLOW. TRENDS WITH THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED TO
COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS FROM
ROUGHLY SYR SWWD TO ELZ...ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY MORNING STORMS THAT
HAVE CONTINUED EWD. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS A BIT
DRIER -- DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S -- THAN AREAS FARTHER S/SW. 12Z
ALB SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS WARM TEMPERATURES IN BOTH THE LOW AND
MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN NO INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO THIS LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CNTRL/SWRN PORTION
OF THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSTM CLUSTER. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
HERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S. EVEN MODEST DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
WARM THIS AIRMASS AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THE BETTER VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT.

LASTLY...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITHIN THE PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE RESULTING STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY
OF THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS IS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW OF
THE TSTM CLUSTER MENTIONED EARLIER. RESULTING COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY WITH ANY PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED SVR
TSTM THREAT UNLIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SW NY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE AND MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER LAKE ERIE
MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER INTO SW NY...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..MOSIER/WEISS.. 07/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42517459 41587470 41167572 41207985 41648051 42427972
            43327880 43277664 43157542 42867480 42517459



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