Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 300647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300646
TXZ000-300745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127...

VALID 300646Z - 300745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 08Z
WW EXPIRATION. OVERALL RISK MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A REPLACEMENT
WW...BUT A LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION COULD BE PERFORMED.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CELLS HAVE PERSISTED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW DRAPED ACROSS MAVERICK TO BEXAR COUNTY.
CONVECTION AT PRESENT MAY BE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...BUT HAS THUS FAR
STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY TO POTENTIALLY BEING SEVERE. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND PERHAPS
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ACROSS WEST TX...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MID-LEVEL LOBE WILL DECAY THROUGH 12Z. WITH
WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. OVERALL SETUP MAY
ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   29400094 29939952 30289849 30319804 30119776 29769774
            29409833 29149913 28959983 28890051 29400094




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