Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 241945
SPC MCD 241945

Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Areas affected...Southeast MI and northwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241945Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging wind and marginal hail will be
possible across the greater Detroit metro area over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...An elevated strong cell has developed over the last
hour or so, tracking northeast and currently over Hillsdale County,
MI. The downstream airmass has experienced mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies all day allowing for good insolation with temperatures
reaching the low 70s and dew points in the upper 50s. This has
resulted in weakening of the cap and SBCAPE values approaching 1000
J/kg. The current character of this cell has trended toward a bowing
segment over the last 30 minutes, and given the thermodynamic
environment downstream, has the potential to become surface based as
it continues east/northeast. This could bring an isolated
strong/damaging wind threat to the greater Detroit metro area within
the next hour. Furthermore, steep midlevel lapse rates coupled with
strong deep layer shear could result in some marginally severe hail.
While the tornado threat is non-zero, it does appear rather low and
damaging wind and hail will be the main concern with this bow. Given
the isolated nature of convection, a watch is not expected across
the area at this time, though one may be possible later this
afternoon or evening with additional convection expected with the
main cold frontal passage later this evening.

..Leitman/Hart.. 02/24/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42008435 42518383 42598323 42328285 41638310 41328365
            41298426 41368467 41598470 42008435 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.