Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 152337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico from
30N83W to 27N90W to 21N97W. Gale-force northwesterly winds are
occurring mainly south of 25N and west of the front, with seas
ranging from 8 to 10 ft. These conditions are expected through at
least the next 12 hours as the front progresses across the basin
and the pressure gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

A strong high pressure will build to the north of the Caribbean
Sea during the evening today. A tight pressure gradient has
developed in the south central Caribbean supporting fresh to
strong trades. Gale-force winds will develop along the northwest
portion of the Colombian coast each night starting tonight through
early Monday. The sea heights will build to 10-13 feet in this
area. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 04N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 13W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to
27N90W to the northeast Mexico coast near 21N97W. Gale-force
winds are noted west of the front and mainly south of 25N. Please
refer to the Special Features section above for details. Scattered
showers are observed northwest of the front north of 26N and west
of 90W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere with light to gentle
easterly winds, as noted in scatterometer data. Expect for the
front to continue moving southeast across the basin through the
next 12-18 hours. By then, the front will stall and weaken. A
warm front will develop from this frontal boundary by late
Saturday, moving north with convection. These conditions will
continue through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are expected to develop over the south-central
Caribbean within the next 12 hours. These conditions will continue
through the weekend. Please refer to the Special Features section
above for details. A surface trough is in the coastal waters of
Central America south of 18N and along 83W. Scattered showers are
observed along the front from 14N-17N. Another surface trough
extends across eastern Cuba from 20N79W to 21N76W. This boundary
is the remnants of a stationary front. No significant convection
is related to this feature at this time. Fair weather prevails
across the remainder of the basin, with gentle to moderate trades.
Little change is expected through the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island. Isolated showers could
develop this weekend over the area due to orographic lifting and
daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fair weather prevails across the western Atlantic ahead of a
frontal boundary currently located along the Georgia/South
Carolina coastlines. To the east, a surface trough extends from
29N53W to 23N66W to 21N76W. Another trough is located from 25N46W
to 20N47W. The remainder of the area is under the influence of a
surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 36N30W,
and a 1022 mb high located near 28N61W. Expect for the cold front
over the southeast CONUS to move offshore over the west Atlantic
waters. The surface high over the southwest Atlantic will strengthen
during the weekend. The pressure gradient generated in this area
will trigger the Caribbean gale-force winds this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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