Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241752

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
18N31W to 04N34W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is
embedded in a large 700 mb trough, with Saharan dust across the
wave environment north of 10N. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm of either side of the wave axis south of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
17N52W to 04N55W, moving westward at around 20 kt. This wave
embedded in broad 700mb troughing, with notable turning also
evident in satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 12N between 52W and 59W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with an axis
extending from 16N67W to 06N68W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is indicated by 700 mb troughing in model field data.
Dry air an subsidence over the northern portion of the wave is
inhibiting convection over the Caribbean, with convection confined
to northern Venezuela.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 08N13W to
07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near
07N20W and continues to 08N31W, then resumes W of a tropical wave
near 06N36W and continues to 02N42W to 05N53W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection are within 210 nm of either side
of the monsoon trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from
the equator to 08N between 35W and 48W.



High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge axis that
extends across the northern Gulf to about 90W along about 28N,
supporting moderate southeast winds across the Gulf. The only
exception is light winds in the vicinity of the ridge axis over
the northeastern Gulf. An upper low over the southwestern Gulf
supports scattered thunderstorms mainly south of 24N, west of
89W. Over the next 24 hours a frontal boundary over the southern
United States will drift toward the northern Gulf coast,
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the northern
Gulf. The upper low will move west toward northwestern Mexico.


The Caribbean is void of deep convection today, as mid to upper
level dry air has spread across much of the basin. Mainly moderate
to fresh trades cover the Caribbean, except light winds over the
southwest Caribbean south of 11N. A tropical wave is crossing the
eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for
more details. By Sunday afternoon, a strong Atlantic tropical wave
is expected to near the Lesser Antilles with showers and


Mainly scattered showers will affect the southern portion of the
island through Sunday as a tropical wave passes to the south.


A pair of tropical waves are crossing the tropical north Atlantic
waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more
details. A weak surface trough void of convection extends from
27N59W to 24N62W. Another surface trough to the east, which is the
reflection of an upper low aloft, extends from 29N49W to 25N51W.
This trough supports isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of the
trough axis. High pressure centered north of the area of
discussion over the central and eastern Atlantic has a ridge axis
that extends west- southwest to northern Florida and dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters.

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