Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF
94W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N83W TO 24N93W
TO 18N94W. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N11W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND GREAT
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST SW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 29N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN WILL START TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
TROUGHINESS ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 21W AND
42W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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