Tropical Weather Discussion
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496
AXNT20 KNHC 250602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 18-hour forecast, starting at 25/0000 UTC, consists of:
a cold front along 31N41W 26N51W, and then stationary, to a 1014
mb low pressure center near 21N68W. Expect NE-to-E gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 16 feet, from 24N
to 26N between 66W and 68W. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, curving to 04N13W, and the Equator along 19W.
The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 19W, to 02S32W, and to
05S37W at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 06N northward between 11W and 14W, along the
coasts of Liberia and Sierra Leone. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 07N southward from 45W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through the central sections of the
U.S.A. A north-to-south oriented cold front cuts through Texas.
Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf
of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in east
Texas and in the upper Texas Gulf coastal plains.

A surface ridge passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
the Florida Panhandle, to 26N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico, to
22N98W along the coast of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered to broken low
level clouds in SE return flow, from 90W eastward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF and KBQX.

MVFR: KMZG, KXIH, KVBS, KVAF, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGRY,
KEIR, KSPR, KMDJ, KIKT, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Valley, at the NAS Corpus Christi, and
from Rockport to the southern part of the Houston metropolitan
area and Beaumont/Port Arthur, not counting Galveston. IFR in
Palacios. Heavy rain in Jasper. Rainshowers and thunder in Sugar
Land, in Pearland, and at the Houston Hobby Airport. LOUISIANA:
MVFR, and possible rainshowers, from Baton Rouge southward.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from the Natchez-to-Hattiesburg line southward.
ALABAMA and FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA,
AND INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N47W to 30N52W, along a
shear axis to 29N70W, to 27N74W. The trough continues from 27N74W,
across SE Cuba, into the Windward Passage, to 14N79W, and to the
border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. A cold front passes through
32N46W to 29N50W and 26N58W. The front is stationary from 26N58W
to 25N70W and 24N80W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm to
360 nm on either side of 32N41W, 25N50W, 25N65W, and 19N66W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 30N46W, to an Atlantic Ocean 1014 mb low
pressure center that is near 21N63W. The surface trough continues
from 21N63W, through the Mona Passage, into the Caribbean Sea near
13N70W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm to 360 nm on
either side of 32N41W, 25N50W, 25N65W, and 11N69W at the coast of
Venezuela. Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of the area
of clouds and possible precipitation in the Caribbean Sea. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow is moving on top of the area of
clouds and possible precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The dividing line of wind flow regimes extends from the southern
border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic to the coast of Costa
Rica near 10N83W. The upper level wind flow that is to the west of
that line is cyclonic. The upper level wind flow that is to the
east of that line is from the SW.

Rainshowers are comparatively more possible to the east of the
dividing line of upper level cyclonic wind flow and upper level SW
wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in
water vapor imagery to the west of the dividing line.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.16 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.
earlier light rain has ended for the moment. Santiago: MVFR.
ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800
feet.

The GFS MODEL forecasts, for 250 mb and for 500 mb, show that SW
wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A
trough will remain to the west of Hispaniola during the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind
flow with a trough will cover the area for the first 30 hours.
Expect SW and W wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast
period.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through Morocco, across the Canary
Islands, to a 24N20W cyclonic circulation center, to 16N30W and to
10N32W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east, and to the northwest
of, the 30N46W-to-21N63W surface trough. A surface ridge passes
through 32N35W 26N45W to 17N58W on the eastern side of the surface
trough. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 34N66W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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