Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231028

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.


A low presently over W Cuba will traverse S Florida to N of the
Bahamas in 24 hours. The pressure gradient between this low and
a high to the east will result in gale force southeast winds late
Sunday through Monday night, N of 29N between 72W-75W, with seas
to 12 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 for further details.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from
08N13W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 05N16W to 01S30W to the South American coast near 03S43W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05S-06N between 15W-
28W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 30W-



As of 23/0900 UTC a cold front extends over the W Gulf of Mexico
from S Alabama near 30N88W to N Mexico near 25N97W. Radar imagery
shows a line of thunderstorms from S Alabama to SE Louisiana,
however, the remainder of the front over the W Gulf is void of
precipitation. 20-25 kt N winds are N of the front. Elsewhere, a
1007 mb low is centered over W Cuba near 22N83W. A surface trough
extends N from the low to the SE Gulf near 26N84W. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf, S Florida, and the
Straits of Florida, S of 28N and E of 84W. Broken multilayered
clouds are over central Florida. Mostly fair weather is over the
remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level trough
is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. In addition, a small upper
level low is embedded over the SE Gulf near 26N84W enhancing he
cloudiness over central Florida. Expect in 24 hours for the cold
front to extend from Jacksonville Florida to Tampico Mexico with
scattered showers. 20-25 N winds will be N of front. Also expect
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist over S
Florida and the Straits of Florida for the next 24 hours due to
the surface low.


A 1007 mb low is centered over W Cuba near 22N83W. A surface
trough extends S from the low to W of Grand Cayman near 18N82W.
Radar imagery and lightning data shows scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms E of the trough over central and E Cuba.
More scattered showers are over Jamaica and Hispaniola. Another
surface trough is over Belize and W Honduras from 18N88W to
15N89W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Further
S, scattered moderate convection is inland over NW Venezuela.
Scattered showers are over Panama, Costa Rica, and Honduras. 20-25
kt E wind are noted over the E Caribbean E of 74W. In the upper
levels, mostly zonal flow is noted. Upper level moisture is over
the N Caribbean from Cuba to the Leeward Islands. Expect over the
next 24 hours for additional scattered showers to be over Puerto
Rico, and the Leeward Islands.


Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect Widely
scattered moderate convection and scattered showers over the
island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest convection over
the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum heating.


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
Bahamas. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
28N65W. The tail end of a cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N38W to 28N40W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N32W to
25N40W. Scattered showers are E of the trough from 27N-34N
between 32W-35W. A 1020 mb high is centered W of the Canary
Islands near 30N20W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper
level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 38N44W
enhancing convection mostly E of the center. Expect over the next
24 hours for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
persist over the Bahamas. Also expect the showers over the central
Atlantic to move E.

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