Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 300235
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and bring a
return to somewhat cooler and less humid air for Memorial Day
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar and satellite trends show convection across the region is
slowly weakening with the loss of diurnal heating and starting to
shift eastward. Farther west, the surface cold front will enter
western NY after 06Z. A QLCS had developed earlier ahead of the
front across southwestern Ontario, however, waning instability has
allowed this feature to weaken. By the time the frontal forcing
reaches western NY, it may produce a few scattered showers or an
isolated thunderstorm, but weak convergence and limited instability
by this time of night should keep the activity weak with limited
areal coverage.

It will remain mild and humid most of the night until the front
arrives, with lower humidity reaching western NY around daybreak
with the cold frontal passage. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s
on the lake plains, with lower 60s across the cooler Southern Tier
valleys and Tug Hill region.

On Memorial Day Monday the cold front will move east across the area
during the morning, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region and
central NY by midday or early afternoon. Prior to the frontal
passage there may still be a lingering shower or isolated
thunderstorm east of the Genesee Valley. Otherwise western NY will
dry out by early morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region will
be dry from early afternoon on. Behind the front skies will
partially clear, although diurnal cumulus will develop along and
inland from the lake breezes during the afternoon yielding a mix of
sun and clouds. Stable lake shadows east of the lakes will bring
more full sunshine along the Lake Erie shore and near Watertown.

Less humid air will filter into the area from west to east through
the day. Temperatures will still top out in the lower 80s across
lower elevations away from the lakeshores, with upper 70s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
After a comfortable night when temperatures will have returned to
the 50s for the first time in nearly a week...we can look forward to
simply outstanding weather on Tuesday as high pressure nosing south
from Hudson Bay will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This will provide
our region with sun filled skies and very comfortable conditions as
max temps within a couple degrees of 80 will be accompanied by low
humidity. This will prove to be an excellent day for outdoor
activities.

Tuesday night will once again feature very comfortable sleeping
conditions...as a dry Canadian airmass and light winds will
encourage temperatures to once again drop off into the 50s.

On Wednesday...our region will find itself wedged between the
remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie along the Carolina coastline and
an approaching frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes. The
large scale subsidence between the two systems will combine with the
residual dry airmass to guarantee another day of full sunshine. It
will be warmer though...as temperatures are expected to climb back
into the low to mid 80s. The exception will be within 5-10 miles of
the south shore of Lake Ontario...where a northeast low level flow
will hold afternoon temperatures in the 70s. This northeast flow
will also keep dew points from climbing out of the 50s...so the
higher temperatures will be easier to tolerate.

A short lived push of warmer...more humid conditions will be
experienced over our region in advance of a cold front Wednesday
night and Thursday. The deepening southerly flow on the backside of
the exiting ridge but ahead of the front will push our dew points
back up towards 60...especially over the far western counties. This
will once again set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms as
the aforementioned cold front Thursday afternoon and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is high confidence that the first weekend of June will be much
more comfortable than the about to end Memorial Day Weekend...as a
notable pattern change will take place across the continent.

The Western Atlantic Ridge responsible for record heat...and even
for helping to fuel scattered strong to severe convection over the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Regions...will give way to a
progressive low amplitude flow during the course of the week. As we
push through the first weekend of June...the near zonal flow along
the length of the Canadian border will then buckle as anomalously
strong ridging will blossom across the Inter-Mountain West. The
resulting downstream troughing over the Great Lakes Region will
allow cooler...more comfortable Canadian air to pour south. With H85
temps averaging in the single digits C...daytime highs will be in
the 70s F...right where they should be for this point in the warm
season.

In terms of precipitation...high pressure situated over the Great
Lakes should supply our region with mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any lingering thunderstorms this evening will continue to weaken and
shift eastward into Central NY, with VFR conditions prevailing. A
weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and early Monday
with a few more showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, but
with sparse coverage. There will likely be a brief period of MVFR
CIGS with IFR higher terrain just behind the front for a few hours
early Monday morning across western NY. By mid to late morning VFR
should prevail with drier air moving into the region.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the region tonight and clean out the heat
and humidity, with mainly dry conditions expected on Memorial Day.
Winds will increase somewhat on Memorial Day, up to about 15 knots
which will produce choppy wave action but still well below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK



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