Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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670
FXUS61 KBUF 131801
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
101 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. BITTER COLD AIR WILL COMBINE WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PAIR OF SYSTEMS POSSIBLY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING WIDESPREAD NARROW
STREAMERS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM GEORGIAN BAY AS WELL. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO REMAIN STEADY STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST PERSISTENT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
NIAGARA TO OSWEGO COUNTIES AND ALSO IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN THE 10-12K FEET RANGE...THEN STEADILY DROP
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AND A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND LOWERS. DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY INITIALLY...A SHORT NORTHWEST FETCH AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION...THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
CLOUD LAYER ARE TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES...WITH VERY SMALL SNOWFLAKES
BEING PRODUCED WHICH ARE NOT EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING. THE LOW
DENSITY SMALL SNOWFLAKES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

EXPECT A WIDE SPRAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM NIAGARA TO
OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCASIONALLY EXTEND INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE LAKE SNOW WEST OF ROCHESTER TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN END
OF THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LAST LONGER FROM THE EASTERN
SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH THE LATEST MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MODEST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER 2 INCHES OR SO TONIGHT
WEST OF ROCHESTER AND UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES EAST OF ROCHESTER WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST LONGER AND BE MORE PERSISTENT.
AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER MAY PICK UP ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE LAKE SNOW WEAKENS BY MIDDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND
HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MONROE...WAYNE...
NORTHERN CAYUGA...OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH 1PM SUNDAY. THE ADVISORY
FOR NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTY RUNS THROUGH 1AM SUNDAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WITH A VERY SHORT FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND LITTLE UPSTREAM HELP FROM LAKE HURON. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY BRING THE LAKE HURON UPSTREAM CONNECTION FROM
NORTHWEST PA BACK INTO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY BRING BETTER SNOWFALL RATES AND COVERAGE BACK WITH
2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS UPSTREAM CONNECTION SHOULD BREAK DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES LAKE ERIE. WITH THIS IN
MIND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1AM SUNDAY
FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FRIGID WITH LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...BEING HELD UP BY LAKE MODIFICATION AND LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15
BELOW ESPECIALLY IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL HAVE NO LAKE INFLUENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
BOTTOM TO DROP OUT WITH LOWS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW. WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 20 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND AS
LOW AS 40 TO 45 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON SUNDAY THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE THE COLDEST AIRMASS RETREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NY...
WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BRINGING AN
END TO THE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED OVER THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH
MODEST WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON ITS BACKSIDE. AFTER A BITTERLY
COLD START TO THE DAY WHEN DANGEROUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A FRIGID DAY OVERALL.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE FIVE TO TEN ABOVE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REST
OF THE REGION...WITH THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE PERHAPS SEEING READINGS
BREAK INTO THE TEENS.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME
NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AT THE
START OF THE DAY...WITH THESE THEN GRADUALLY FADING OUT WHILE
LIFTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE DURING THE MORNING...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TO JUST A FEW SPOTTY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY BY THE END OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...A CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 3-4 KFT...
AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR BELOW THIS...EXPECT THE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF FLUFF. OUTSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT...
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DRY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LARGELY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ENDING ALTOGETHER
IN THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT PACIFIC-ORIGIN TROUGH REMAINING TOO
FAR TO OUR WEST TO BRING ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN EVENING LOWS RANGING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE CRITERIA.

AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC-BASED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AS IT ENCROACHES UPON OUR REGION...
FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A DEVELOPING ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
EITHER ALONG OR SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO STICK VERY CLOSE
TO OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WHICH CURRENTLY
LIES CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS SYSTEM TRACK. WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...
EXPECT THE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING...BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO
ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED BROAD WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALLOW OUR TEMPS TO RECOVER BACK TO LEVELS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL /MID 20S-LOWER 30S/ ON MONDAY...BEFORE READINGS
FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MEANWHILE AT NIGHT...LOWS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRAILING TUESDAY/S SYSTEM...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN PLACE...ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR REGION...WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY
CHANGING OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WARMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MULTIPLE NARROW STREAMERS COMING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...ERIE...AND HURON. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE TINY
SNOWFLAKES WHICH GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY EVEN IN LIGHT SNOW. THE
FINE SNOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FAVORABLE SNOWPACK FOR BLOWING SNOW
WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KBUF-KIAG WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADIER
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MORE VARIABLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. KROC AND KJHW
WILL BE MORE SOLIDLY IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
PREDOMINANT IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND AT THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL PERSIST LONGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH AREAS OF IFR
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FROM JUST EAST OF KROC TO KFZY. THIS TOO WILL
SLOWLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THAT WILL END AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY.

AN INCOMING FRIGID AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK WINDS AND WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR
WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH NEAR
RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE SOME
CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ001-002-
     019.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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