Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270617
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
217 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A COOL...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OF 7C 850MB AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ONTARIO WATERS FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN
IS RIDGING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND SUPPRESSING LAKE SHOWERS
OFF LAKE ERIE. KTYX RADAR AT 2AM SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
ROCHESTER TO FAIR HAVEN WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CROSSING THE TUG
HILL AS WINDS VEERED MORE NORTHWEST. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...MORE VEERING IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.
LIMITING THIS MESOSCALE ACTIVITY THOUGH WILL BE A PRONOUNCED CAP
AROUND 9K FT WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXPANDS EAST.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INLAND FROM THE
LAKES...WITH THESE SHOWERS ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON. A PUSH OF DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS EAST WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON THE LAKE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGER ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THERE BY EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MID 60S ON THE HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION.

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND PROBABLY SOME FOG IN THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THIS TO OUR NORTH OR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER...BUT PERHAPS SOME CLOUD
COVER. MEANWHILE A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE POOR MODEL AGREEMENT HANDLING A SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD...EVENTUALLY...CROSS OUR REGION. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM
SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE...AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SLOWER BECAUSE IT CUTS OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE DOES
NOT HAVE IT REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. EITHER
WAY...THE FEATURE IS WEAK AND WILL SPARK MINIMAL AND DIURNALLY
INFLUENCED SHOWERS. BASED ON THIS...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

SUMMER RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH FORECASTING A BROAD
500 MB RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK REMNANTS OF
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY CHANCE POPS...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE FOUND EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AT 6Z WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ERIE. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH UPSTREAM OBS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE ALREADY SHOWING MVFR. SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR VSBY MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP IN ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING AND INCOMING DRY AIR TEND TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CIGS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO WILL END DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TODAY MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FIRST ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND MIDDAY...THEN IMPROVE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR SKC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS IN THE 15-17 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE
ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIND AND WAVE ACTION JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER ON LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH



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