Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 140306
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUNSHINE RETURNS LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL REMAIN COOL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME BREAKUP IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY TRAP MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH KEEPING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER IN ACROSS ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S WITHIN THE CHILLY
AIRMASS. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 30S WHILE AREAS NEAR THE LAKES...AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY LINGER AROUND 50 UNDER THICKER LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS.

1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. LIKELY
LOOKING AT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO WARM THE CHILLY AIRMASS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SLIDING
FROM WESTERN TO EASTERN NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER TIME AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ALOFT...
THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
TO DATE AS LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND OUT TO SEA...ALLOWING THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF MONDAY...THIS LATTER SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH OUR CURRENT LIKELY POPS FROM CONTINUITY APPEARING QUITE
REASONABLE GIVEN BOTH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
SUPPORTING MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL
MODERATE SOME GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALSO HELPING TO HOLD READINGS UP MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY...WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT THEN RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY SCOOT OFF TO OUR EAST
DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A FEW LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF TROUGHING ALOFT...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
LOWS MOSTLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND USHERS IN ONE LAST REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR. THIS STATED...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS THIS FRONT
WILL BE WEAK AND EXTREMELY MOISTURE-STARVED...AND WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.

AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR A STRONG ENOUGH
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR TO BOOST TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
NEXT SATURDAY...WHILE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BREAKUP IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY TRAP MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH KEEPING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER IN ACROSS ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT. MOST CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AREAWIDE
BRIEF MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...THROUGH
THIS EVENING ON BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKE WATERS AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA






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