Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 040804
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ASSURE THAT OUR REGION WILL HAVE FAIR
WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT WILL START TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED LATER NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THURSDAYS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
BEFORE THE MEANDERING FRONT MOVES TOO FAR SOUTH THOUGH...A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL REINFORCE
FAIR WEATHER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS
PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME.

H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS C EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHERE NOTABLY LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE...TO THE UPPER
TEENS C OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE (DUNKIRK/FREDONIA/WESTFIELD)...WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER MANY OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE DRAPED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SETTLING A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WE CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MIDSUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT
ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
ANY CONVECTION. THUS...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG...AT THIS POINT DO NOT FORESEE
ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

LOOKING A BIT MORE SPECIFICALLY AT FORECAST TEMPERATURES...850 MB
READINGS INITIALLY BETWEEN +15C AND +17C ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB TO
THE +17C/+18C RANGE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY CLIMBING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
BY MONDAY...WHEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASING ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STATED...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
ALSO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WAVES ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEIR CONSEQUENT INFLUENCE ON ITS TIMING.

LOOKING A BIT MORE CLOSELY AT THE DETAILS...THE 00Z GFS/GEM BOTH
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY IMPINGE UPON OUR
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHERE IT THEN
STALLS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT...WITH THE BOUNDARY THEN
FINALLY CROSSING OUR REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...AND
NOW JUST SUGGESTS A SIMPLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN BOTH THE DISCREPANCIES NOTED ABOVE AND THE UNSUPRISING
DIFFICULTIES THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING IN PINNING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. MUCH LIKE OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...HAVE DEPICTED AN
INITIAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE POSSIBLE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE
NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WERE THE
00Z ECMWF TO VERIFY...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY TURN
OUT TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND
ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE SRN TIER (INCL KJHW AND KELZ).

THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z OR
SO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THEN SUPPLYING
FAIR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VFR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND
FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS THE NIGHT
MATURES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVN/EARLY AM FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO PROMOTING SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
IRONDEQUOIT BAY. WINDS AND WAVE HGTS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THAT AREA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH


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