Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270012
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
712 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
LOW WILL CROSS WELL TO OUR NORTH WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT AND
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE CLEARING LINE. MID CLOUDS AND LOWER CEILINGS
EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US.  THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS PROCESS WILL BE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING OVER TIME.
MEANWHILE...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH AND STILL UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
US.  THE RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET WITH TIME
THAT SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.  THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN...WHERE...AND IF ANY LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY.  THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH EXPANSION TOWARD
THE LAKE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL
PLAY OUT.  THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN
BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING
WITH TIME...NOW AROUND 3000FT PER AMDAR DATA.   SOME OF THE HIGH RES
FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW ANY LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE OTHERS SATURATE THE LOWEST 2000-3000FT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.  LOW CONFIDENCE IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT HISTORICALLY
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A DRY
AIRMASS ALOFT.

REGARDLESS ANY REMAINING CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
NOTED ABOVE AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION.  DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY.  IT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY GRAZING THE FREEZING MARK
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING TOWARD THE 50F MARK
SATURDAY IN THE LAKE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A WEAK WARM
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH MODEST LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ALSO PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A ROUND OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUCH COMING EAST/NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SUPPLEMENTAL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES AND SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. AS FOR PYTPE...PROJECTED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS TO FALL IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE MADE IT AS FAR AS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN NEW YORK...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WHILE LOW
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING PRECIP AT THE START OF
THE DAY QUICKLY ENDING DURING THE MORNING...ALONG WITH MORNING
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE
RAIN SHOWERS TO BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BEFORE ENDING...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIR. WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...IT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND CAPPED TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SLIGHT
BUMP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WITH
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE REMAINING MAINLY DRY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE GENERAL COLD ADVECTION REGIME
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT IN READINGS
FALLING BACK TO MUCH MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR LATE DECEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SUNDAY TO FALL BACK TO
AROUND FREEZING BY MONDAY AND INTO THE 20S ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY SEEM COLD WHEN COMPARED TO THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WE`VE
EXPERIENCED OF LATE. LIKEWISE...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FALL FROM THE
MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY AVERAGING SOME 5-8 DEGREES COLDER BOTH
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TO THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE...WHILE BROAD/DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC...A PATTERN THAT WILL FEED A
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME...THE EXACT DEGREE OF SUCH WILL DEPEND
UPON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...A
FACTOR THAT REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT. COUPLED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EXACT WIND
DIRECTION...THIS PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN PLACING SOME BROAD
AREAS OF CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MOISTURE MIGHT BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD JUST BE COLD AND DRY
OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ENSUING WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND RAPID BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD RESULT IN WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT THERE IS QUICKLY WEAKENING AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S AT NIGHT...BEFORE READINGS MODERATE BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER 17Z.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR IN WSW LAKE EFFECT -SHRA...MVFR/VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND FRESHEN BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES...LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST SUNDAY...LEADING TO BUILDING WAVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE. SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP
LAKE ERIE OUT OF ADVISORIES THIS WEEKEND. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...WCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH/ZAFF
MARINE...WOOD/ZAFF






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