Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 211128
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
728 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH JUST A SPOT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOISTURE AND SUMMER`S
WARMTH WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...AND THEN BRING COOLER AND FAIR WEATHER
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. JUST
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS PAST
WEEKEND IS NOW OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXITING DEEPER
INTO CANADA.

BEHIND THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY
ALONG WITH WARMING FOUND AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS WARMING
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL PRETTY MUCH CAP
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...LEAVING THE REGION DRY.
HOWEVER AS MIXED LAYER EVOLUTION ENSUES THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY TO BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION WITH CONVECTIVE UPWARD
MOTION COMMENCING. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR WNY MAY PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AS WE COOL THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING
SUN...CONVECTION WILL END LEAVING THE REGION UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE NIGHT.

THE WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO BRING WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR THE DEW POINT SOME
AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SW NEW YORK
STATE IS LIKELY. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BRING ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS OF THE
SUMMER TO WESTERN NEW YORK. ML CAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1000 TO 1500
J/KG...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A MID-LEVEL CAP COMBINED WITH THE
LACK OF A DEFINED TRIGGER WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90S IN...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG
THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN AN INCREASING SSW
FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DOWNSLOPE AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE
FRONT...AND EVEN WHEN CONSIDERING PREVIOUS RUNS A CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
BOTH NAM/GFS FORECAST 850MB WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND
1.75 INCHES...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THIS SAID...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK...SO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
STAY TUNED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. WESTERN NEW YORK
SHOULD BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE
EXITING FRONT EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY...AND ANY SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY TO STAY
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE COMFORTABLY COOL
NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE REGION DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN DRY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST HELPING TO ADVECT IN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWERS 80S
DURING BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT A BIT LESS WARM AS
READINGS ACROSS MOST AREAS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
CYCLE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SOME LIFR/IFR FOG HAS FORMED. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z AND ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM...BUT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND MISS THE 5 TAF SITES. THEREFORE AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AGAIN SOME VALLEY FOG MAY
BRING LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE KJHW TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH PATCHY LIFR/IFR
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FORMING AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL KEEP A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE ALSO PRODUCING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS






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