Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 262025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




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