Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271013
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
613 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FAIR BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO /LIKELY LEFTOVER FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY/ ALONG WITH A LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR
SUNRISE AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE NARROWED. THIS FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH MORNING SUN MIXING OUT THE LOW LEVELS.
INCOMING DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY
AT THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING THIN
HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST STATES.

THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR +3C IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND -5C EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 60 ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN TIER TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
LINGERING DRY AIR WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE M20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY TO
L/M 30S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CANADA THURSDAY. BEST
SURGE OF 295-300K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO SUPPORTED BY
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME...AS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BETTER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBE WILL ALSO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DESPITE DRY NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED. CHANCES MUCH
LOWER IF AT ALL IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIKELY SLOW THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST...AND A FEW
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS MAIN PV ANOMALY OPENS UP AND SHEARS
EASTWARD. FORCING BECOMES RATHER MUDDLED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG EVENTUAL TRACK OF DECAYING VORT MAX. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN RUN JUST A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOLER AND
DRY CANADIAN SOURCED AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MEANWHILE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF ASCENT AND MOISTURE ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION... BEING ERODED FROM THE NORTH BY THE DRIER AIR. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER... AND TAPER OFF TO
MUCH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES... WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S
TO L60S... AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE DRY AIR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK STATE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME PATCHY MVFR VIS IN MIST/FOG
DESPITE THE DRY AIR AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR
DEWPOINTS. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
RETREATING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER EAST OF KJHW WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR AS DRIER AIR ERODES THE LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN NOSED ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
FRIDAY...VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL PRODUCE
SUB ADVISORY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THE NOSE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

WINDS COULD FRESHEN A BIT ON LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY
BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PROMOTING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A RED
FLAG EVENT. EAST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL HELP MOISTURE RECOVER
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR
30 PERCENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH



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