Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 141428
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TODAY BRINGING DRY BUT COOL
WEATHER. IT WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY MONDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUING
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WEST TO
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO STUBBORNLY HANG ON
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS
LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD START THINNING LATER THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING INSOLATION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD THIN OUT OVERALL...WE
SHOULD SEE THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF OF STRATO-CU INLAND FROM THE LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD
STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO GO AROUND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 60 ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PRESENT AN IDEAL SETUP FOR EXTENSIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SPOTS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
30S. IN FACT...WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT BEING FOUND OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT...PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY COULD DIP INTO THE MID
30S AND A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT COUNTY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WHILE
KEEPING ONE LAST DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEFORE INCREASING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
MON NT/TUES AM ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FLOODING CONCERNS WHILE WEAK LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DESPITE STRONG 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (45-75KTS) PRESENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS
ONLY DIPPING DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON 50.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TOWARD WATERTOWN WILL END WITH
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AREA WIDE
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THEN MONDAYS READINGS. CANADIAN
SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPSTATE
NEW YORK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
RETURNING. THIS MAY ALSO BRING SOME SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEY FOG
AGAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS STATED...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CANADIAN SOURCED AIRMASS IS
MOISTURE-STARVED.

AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR A STRONG ENOUGH
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR TO BOOST TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING BY SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS AT
KART THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. THE COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME LAKE DRIVE STRATOCU
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5K FEET. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR VALLEY FOG
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND MUCH OF THE WAVE ACTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SHORES OF THE LAKES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD





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