Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 232323
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
723 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY USHERING IN A RETURN TO SUMMER
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. THE INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
IN SPITE OF THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...A SLIGHT FRESHENING OF SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 40S THE FARTHER
INLAND ONE MOVES. A FEW OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY BRIEFLY DIP A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK...BUT
FROST IS NOT EXPECTED.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON SUNDAY COURTESY OF CONTINUED SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING...THOUGH
WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...RETURN FLOW WILL
KICK IN ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT
SUNDAY NIGHT TO START OFF DRY...BUT AS THIS WARM FRONT NEARS THE
REGION SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
NIGHT...NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
DUE IN PART TO A WEAK LLJ AND WEAKENING PARENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...BUT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD GENERATE SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWARD
OF THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOMS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD MONDAY WARM AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

NEAR THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE BULK
OF MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80...WITH MID
80S FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. NEAR
THE LAKE SHORELINES COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT 8 TO 10F DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COURTESY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUMP WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SAME
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. AT THAT POINT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE HIGH WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD...AND UNDERCUT THE
SURFACE HIGH...AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
UNTIL THIS HAPPENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE.

DAY TO DAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. THESE READINGS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK AROUND
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY COINCIDING WITH THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST WEAKENS...AND
IMPULSES ALOFT FROM THE WEST NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WE CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE COOLER AS LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS BRING LAKE COOLED AIR INLAND.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AS THOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE...LIFTING MECHANISMS
WILL BE LACKING...AND GENERALLY TIED TO LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GREATEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THESE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 03Z...RESULTING IN SOME LLWS
AT KART/KGTB THROUGH THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTY SW LAKE BREEZES TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SW FLOW UNDER 10KTS.
SW LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KICK UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z SUN WITH HIGH
AND EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SW LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
5-15 KTS ON THE LAKES WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD


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