000
FXUS61 KBUF 180052
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
852 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARKING ITS PASSAGE...BUT IMPROVING
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FAIR WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE AFTERNOON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT KBUF AND KROC AND THE OFFICIAL
KBUF 00Z RAOB DEPICTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LAPS
ANALYZED SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG ALONG WITH LI`S IN THE
VCNTY OF -4. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN A CORRIDOR FROM
KBUF TO KROC AND KSYR...WITH SOME LAKE STABILIZED AIR FOUND OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN TIER.

DURING THE COURSE OF THE EARLY EVENING...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE ARE ALSO LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OF
CONCERN...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVERGENCE FOUND JUST NORTH OF THE
NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY BETEEN BUF AND ROC. WILL THUS KEEP LOW LIKELY
POPS IN PLAY FOR THAT AREA EARLY...WITH CHC POPS MOST ELSEWHERE.

TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY DUMPED
ANOTHER 2+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF MONROE COUNTY EARLIER TODAY.
A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONROE
COUNTY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO COUNTY FROM STORMS THAT EARLIER DUMPED
MORE THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.

ON TUESDAY...SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING AS
A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLES TOWARDS THE PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER. THE AFTERNOON WILL THEN PROVE TO BE MORE PLEASANT AS DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENSURE A DRY AND LESS HUMID STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...YIELDING LOWS IN THE
THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. A BIT MORE HUMIDITY
SHOULD START TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.

AFTER THIS...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ONE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE CERTAINLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EVEN WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO NEAR 20C. HOWEVER...WILL PLAY IT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
DUE TO QUESTIONS OVER THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD TOUCH OFF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE RAINFREE THOUGH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
KART WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PAIR OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COULD INITIATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAINFREE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN WILL BE WAVES THAT WILL
APPROACH 4 FEET FOR SITES SOUTHWEST OF DUNKIRK AND ESPECIALLY
BARCELONA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...LEVAN/RSH