Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 12Z WITH
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TROUGH TODAY. A COOL FLOW OF 6C 850MB
AIR PER MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS. THIS COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN IS
RIDGING EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WILL BEGIN SUPPRESSING LAKE SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

KTYX RADAR NEAR 8AM SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT
ROCHESTER EAST TO OSWEGO WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CROSSING THE
TUG HILL IN COOL UPSLOPE FLOW. A RESURGENCE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE
ERIE. EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT OFF BOTH LAKES TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ENDING FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE
THEN BY THIS EVENING OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WILL
LOWER THE CAPPING INVERSION BELOW 10KFT GREATLY LIMITING LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY.

ELSEWHERE JUST EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL ERODE FROM THE LAKE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. SUNSHINE WILL FIRST BREAK OUT ON THE
LAKE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING CLOUDS
LONGER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL BRING PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 70
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ON THE HILLS.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD. EXPECTING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OVERHEAD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL WORK WITH THE CLEARING TO SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO
MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A FINE END TO THE WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WITH 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO LARGELY
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S
SATURDAY IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S WITH MID 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY PROGGED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND IT IS OVERTAKEN BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A FAIRLY ROBUST CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO AT
ODDS WITH IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN...SO AM NOT INCLINED TO BUY IN AT THIS
POINT. INSTEAD WILL STICK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FALLS APART
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN PRETTY CLOSE TO
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT`S READINGS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
AIRMASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK...THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY END UP BEING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE APPALACHIANS
EVEN AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE MIDWEST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND WESTERN NY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD THE REMNANTS OF
THIS SYSTEM LIMP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE FOUND EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LAKE ERIE NEAR 12Z. CIGS HAVE LOWERED
TO MVFR AT KROC BUT ALL OTHER SITES ARE HOLDING ABOVE VFR. MVFR OR
EVEN IFR VSBY MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP IN ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT KFZY EARLIER
THIS MORNING.

LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCOMING DRY AIR TEND TO BREAK UP THE LOWER
CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO WILL END DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TODAY MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FIRST ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND MIDDAY...THEN IMPROVE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR SKC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
IMPACT KJHW AFTER 6Z. LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
AROUND 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS IN THE 10-17 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ON THE
LAKES THIS MORNING WITH WIND AND WAVE ACTION JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH



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