Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 032334
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS TONIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AGAIN
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY... HELPING TO FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE... A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
AT THE SURFACE... THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A COL THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. CLOUD COVER WILL VARY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS STARTING TO DISSIPATE IN SOME
AREAS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A JAMESTOWN TO ROCHESTER TO WATERTOWN
LINE. FOG WILL DEPEND ON WHERE SKIES CLEAR...WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE L40S WITH A
FEW U30S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND THE GENESEE VALLEY... WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE IN CENTRAL NY. THIS AXIS OF
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT STEEPING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL... AGAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND +5C IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW... AND WILL MAKE FOR A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAVES A
WEAK TROUGH WITH LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED FORCING ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKING FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
WITH ONLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED FORCING BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH BETTER COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE LAKE MODIFIED AIR
WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT THE DEPARTURE
OF THE UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ONSET OF MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES AREA AGAIN COOLER.

MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING ROBUST SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADIAN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY IN ADVANCING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONTINUES TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES TEND TOWARD
JUST RAIN SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS...LITTLE INDICATED FOR
SIGNS OF CONVECTION IN THE CAPE/LI/K-INDEX ETC. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE DEEP
TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS...CLOSE TO 60 FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS ON MONDAY AND
CLIMBING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...WITH A LIGHT
FLOW RESULTING IN FAIRLY PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THE MAJOR CHANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATING
CUMULUS IN AREAS OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART OVERNIGHT. JHW IS THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE IT WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH ANY CLEARING LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY FOG OR LOWER
STRATUS.

AN APPROACHING TROF AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIRLY SPARSE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AT TAF LOCATIONS AND STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE IN COVERAGE FOR A INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DESPITE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK... OVERALL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
WITH LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING EACH DAY. THUS WAVE ACTION WILL
ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...AR/APFFEL
MARINE...CHURCH



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