Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221931
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO
2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JM
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







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