Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 270543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP
MID SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY RAIN
SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
NOW ABOUT DIMINISHED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PASS ACROSS WNY
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...THOUGH STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO NOT EVERY AREA
WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A SPELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS AND A
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE... LOWS
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...
REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPLIED LATEST GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT POPS/WEATHER FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS
ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE
ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THIS TIME. THERE
MAY BE SOME INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG EARLIER AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT WILL AID ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY DUE A
DRYING AIRMASS AT ALL LEVELS FROM SUBSIDENCE.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
INDUCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT CURRENT MODELS STILL
LOOK QUITE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WITH
TIME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.  WILL INCLUDE A LIKELY
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME INSOLATION AND TYPICAL LAKE BREEZE TRIGGERS ALONG WITH
AN EVENTUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY SLOW WARMING RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING.  THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND OR EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ALONG AND EAST OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OVER LAKE
ERIE THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PA.
WILL CARRY SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS WNY AS THIS
ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL LIKELY CROSS NEAR...OR OVER THE
AIRFIELDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED MIDDAY...AND THEN WITH THE
ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO SUNSHINE...WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST
BREEZE OVER FAR WNY.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS
IT REACHES CNY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING ANY RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT IN PASSING
RAIN SHOWERS...AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK TO
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INTACT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL RULE...THOUGH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/LEVAN/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...LEVAN



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