Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300222
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A WEAKENING AREA OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE EASTERN END OF
THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE ENDING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND SHORTENS THE
EFFECTIVE FETCH.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOUND FROM OSWEGO
COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...FORCING ACTIVITY TO BREAK UP INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SPREAD OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. LATE TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE ROCHESTER
AREA.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS START TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORES. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -3C WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE YOUR
TYPICAL CLIPPER AS FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL AND INFLUENCED BY STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND ARE LOOKING
DIMMER AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF PLACING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF
MILDER MARITIME AIR FLOWING OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS NOW RUNNING AROUND -2C...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
WELL INTO THE 40S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MILDER MARITIME AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE SUB-FREEZING...LOW LEVEL
READINGS APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES TO PUSH THE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE TO
THE SURFACE...A NECESSARY PRE-REQUISUTE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
NONETHELESS...IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR
NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY AMOUNTING TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING OF WET SNOW. AS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING AND ALSO WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LAKE
INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. AS WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE RACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AS OUR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK..WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING
SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LATITUDINAL AXIS OF THE LAKE AND AN INCREASING
DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE ME WAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS A COLD
RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN SATURDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...AT THAT POINT THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRYING TO THE POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...WINTER`S CHILL WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH
READINGS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AS WARM AIR SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF OUR FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE ARE WEAKENING LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH A FEW
BRIEF WINDOWS OF MVFR IN THE REMAINING HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. A PLUME OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO A FEW SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHWEST...AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. UPSLOPE FLOW
AND MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR CIGS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON THURSDAY ANY REMAINING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE AND THURSDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A COASTAL LOW TO FORM A DEEP
NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOWER LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA





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