Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 201728
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
128 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the Mid-Atlantic coastline
through the upcoming weekend with dry weather and above normal
temperatures. The pattern will become more unsettled early next week
with a slow moving cold front bringing rain, followed by cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to influence our weather with surface
and upper level ridging expanding northward across the entire eastern
CONUS. Outside of a few waves of high thin cirrus, skies will
be clear with these clouds too thin to have any real impact.

Today will be less windy than yesterday, though there will be a
modest afternoon breeze this afternoon with gusts to 15 mph.
Temperatures will be near to a couple degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the lower to mid 60s in the Eastern Lake
Ontario region and in the upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

There will be a weak gradient flow tonight with good, but not
quite ideal, radiational cooling. Winds will go calm in the
sheltered Southern Tier valleys where temperatures will be the
coolest and patchy fog is likely. Lows will range from around
40 in these valleys to the upper 40s to around 50 across the
lake plains where weak downsloping will limit cooling a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure along the east coastline Saturday and Sunday will
bring a fine autumn weekend...with sunshine, warm temperatures in
the 70s. An 80F reading is not out of the question...especially
Saturday which may be the sunnier of the two days. Sunday may
feature some passing cirrus clouds as a storm system advances across
the midwest. Overnight lows will be in the 50s...with Sunday night a
few degrees warmer ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A baroclinic zone, with a surface wave upon it will be just to our
west Monday...with the frontal zone pushing eastward across our
region through the day and night. Will increase Pops Monday night and
into Tuesday. With the slower arrival of the front, temperatures
will remain on the mild side Monday.

The wettest period looks to lock in on late Monday night and into
Tuesday as the frontal zone stalls across our region and one or more
waves of low pressure shift north along the front. Will have
categorical PoPs in as the boundary crosses us...with potential for
more than an inch of rain as the front will be slow moving. The GFS
shows a potentially moisture rich airmass will move into place along
the front with a connection to the Gulf of Mexico which could push
PWATs above 1.5 inches or more. Temperatures will run closer to
normal, around 60F Tuesday.

Chance POPs are featured for Wednesday as the mid-level trough and
cold advection support showery weather in the wake of the front.
Below normal temps should be expected for Wednesday as 850mb temps
dip to or below zero 0 which would support temps likely struggling
to break above 50 in many locations and may support some lake
enhancement as well into Wednesday night. The coolest low temps
Wednesday night dip into the upper 30s which should still keep a
threat of any snow out of the forecast for now.

Thursday then looks to bring back some dry weather in both GFS and
EC models as western and north-central NY comes under the influence
of a narrow ridge separating a digging trough in the Northern Plains
and potential developing coastal storm just off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Temps forecast near normal with partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will maintain clear skies through tonight. Radiational
cooling will allow for the formation of river valley fog late
tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except for local IFR in late
night/early morning river valley fog.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the lower Great lakes today with drift to the
east coast by Sunday. Relatively light winds will continue through
the weekend, generally under 15 knots. a frontal system is
expected to pushing though the area late Monday or Tuesday.
Strengthening winds and colder air should bring marine headlines
by Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA



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