Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH A SURFACE
LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH. SPIRALING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
DISPLAY A PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THEN THE ATLANTIC RISING NORTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE HILLS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

EXPECT THE BETTER HALF OF TONIGHT TO REMAIN DRY. THE STREAMING
MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS STILL WELL TO OUR EAST...AND
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT THAT AN EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THIS STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE WHAT TRANSPORTS MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS WESTWARD. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON A DEVELOPING TROWEL SIGNATURE TONIGHT
OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS...INSTEAD FOCUSING THE RAIN AND INCREASING
WARMTH ALOFT MORE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
LIKEWISE BACK OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MUCH LOWER
CHANCES OF THE RAIN BEING AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY BY DAWN.
AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

THE COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SOCK THE
HILLS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE FORESEE THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH THE POOREST VISIBILITIES FOUND ON HILL TOPS...AND
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE VALLEYS.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT SOME VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE COULD BE FOUND TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF WNY...TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE
LAKES...AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS ALOFT WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 40. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OVER LAKE ONTARIO
WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS ALL LAKE
ZONES...AND FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFTS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF TONIGHT.

ON LAKE ERIE THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST WAVES
TOWARDS THE TOLEDO END OF THE LAKE...AND SUCH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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