Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 021531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1131 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS SYSTEM HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS THE RAIN
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 2PM AND 3PM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH A MAJORITY
TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL
ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY(KART)LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER TORONTO CANADA WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS AND ALSO LOWER VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EXPECT GRADUAL BUT
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY....SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXPECT
SLOW BUT IMPROVING CIGS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...AR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR/SMITH
MARINE...AR/SMITH



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