Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS A NOR`EASTER
STILL BRINGS ITS IMPACT LARGELY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE...WHILE
JUST BRUSHING BY OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS







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