Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 280839
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
439 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure moves to the east of the region, warm and more humid
air will overspread the area. Low pressure across eastern Canada
will draw a cold front over the northeastern states today, and this
will produce showers and thunderstorms into the evening, especially
across Central New York. The next round of fair weather will then
move in for Monday and Tuesday when high pressure builds in from the
Upper Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As high pressure moves to the east of the region, warm and more humid
air will overspread the area. Low pressure across eastern Canada
will draw a cold front over the northeastern states today, and this
will produce showers and thunderstorms into the evening, especially
across Central New York. Heavy precip is possible as PW climbs to to
more than 1.5 inch later today. Another cell of cooler high pressure
will trail the passage of the cold front and will push the
precipitation to the south and east this evening and overnight.

High temperatures today will climb to between 85 and 90 along with
increasingly uncomfortable humidity levels...as surface dewpoints
will again reach into the mid and upper 60s. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday will feature building high pressure as the shortwave trough
tracks into New England. Subsidence and influx of drier air will
dissipate morning cloudiness from northwest to southeast.
Temperatures will be a little cooler under lower heights and 850 mb
temperatures cooling to around 13C, supporting highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

High pressure will continue to build across the region Monday night
and Tuesday leaving dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Monday
night will feature optimal radiational cooling with a dry airmass,
and light winds allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s for most
locations, except near the lake shores and urban locations. Tuesday
will see a warming trend as high pressure slights to slide east and
the airmass modifies with 850 mb temperatures to +17C, resulting in
high temperatures back into the lower to mid 80s.

The upper level pattern across the CONUS starts to become more
interesting into Wednesday as a large Pacific trough craves out
across the western US which helps with downstream development of a
large ridge across the central plains. During the day Wednesday,
this will open the door for Canadian sourced airmass to dive from
the Hudson Bay region toward the northeast US. This airmass will be
on our doorstep by the second half of the day Wednesday. A warm,
humid and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this front
across our region for the first half of Wednesday, and thus we
should see at least some scattered convection across the region
ahead of the frontal passage. However, with models trending quicker
on the arrival of the front, there may not be enough time
destabilize ahead of the frontal passage on Wednesday to develop
stronger thunderstorms across western NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough axis will dig across Northern New England
through Friday. This will set up a persistent northwesterly flow
with cold air advection during this time. Model guidance is in
good agreement, with the 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS all showing a similar
pattern. As such, model consensus will serve as a good starting
point, however some adjustments are still needed.

GFS BUFKIT shows moisture trapped beneath an inversion at about 5k
ft south of the lakes. Although deep layer mean RH largely misses
this, consensus 850 mb forecast to drop to +3C should support
some lake effect clouds during during the Wednesday through Friday
night period. Moisture is shallow and the flow is mostly
perpendicular to the lakes which will make lake effect rain
showers unlikely. However, because of this consensus guidance is
likely too warm for high temperatures on Thursday and Friday.
Daytime highs will be cooler than they have been for some time,
with many areas struggling to reach 70 on Friday.

For Friday night and Saturday, high pressure is forecast to build
across the region with dry and pleasant weather going into the
weekend. Good radiational cooling will result in chilly overnight
temperatures Friday night, followed by seasonable temperatures for
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for most of this TAF cycle. There
will be a grater chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area, excepting the North Country, mainly after 15Z. Some
heavy showers of stronger thunderstorms may limit visibility to
IFR category, but it should be of short duration as mean boundary
layer winds moves storms along at 25-30kt. Weak cold front moves
through later tonight with a wind shift to northwesterly direction
after 03Z.

Outlook...
Sunday night...Mainly VFR with some leftover evening showers and
thunderstorms.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will pick up a bit ahead of an approaching cold
front, but should remain about 10 knots or less.Winds will become
northwesterly later tonight as the cold front passes and the next
Canadian surface high builds across the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH



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