Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EARLY MORNING DISPLAY THE AREA LARGELY NOW
RAINFREE. A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER NYS...BUT THIS
FEATURE IS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH JUST A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THIS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AS SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP
SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT THE SURFACE... INDICATING
SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION. UPS FOG METHOD IS ALSO
QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER THE TXOVER
TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE
REGION AS LIGHT WINDS...PATCHES OF CLEAR SKIES AND A REMAINING MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS GENERATING THE FORMATION OF FOG...AND OR LOW
CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH THE
KBUF/KART AIRFIELDS HAVING LIMITED IFR DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS FROM A RESIDUAL LAKE BREEZE. THE KJHW TERMINAL WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND DURATION OF IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS WHILE KIAG AND KROC SHOULD ALSO FALL TO IFR FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME LATE OVERNIGHT.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13-14Z TOMORROW WITH A FEW LAGGING
HOURS OF POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED IFR ELSEWHERE IN PATCHES OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JM







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