Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 101929
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
COMFORTABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH...WARMER MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE
LAKES AND LAKE PLAINS...WHILE AFTERNOON CU WILL PASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE AS IT ADVANCES
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL
BRING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALLEGANY PLATEAU REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW
WITH JUST PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WITH COOL LOWS IN THE
50S...AND MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COMFORTABLE TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WHICH
IS UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A STRETCH OF FINE MID-JULY WEATHER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE AXIS OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AS A SUBTLE
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF BEGINS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND ADVECTS A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE 00Z NAM ACTUALLY BEGINS
THIS PROCESS SOME 6-12 HOURS EARLIER AND CONSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES DURING FRIDAY...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO APPEARS
OVERDONE AND HAS THUS BEEN DISCOUNTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C SUPPORTING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY...
THOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE
DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND OUT
TO SEA...WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND
SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTENING AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE
FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WILL THUS
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...THOUGH COULD EVENTUALLY SEE THESE BEING BUMPED UP TO THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY...WITH
THE GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS
TO BETWEEN +13 AND +15C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
SLID OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER ANOTHER AND STRONGER SUCH
FEATURE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST
THIS NEXT FEATURE PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...IN GENERAL ALL
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A ROUGH CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTING AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED
FOR ANY REAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID/UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

DURING SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
OUR REGION...WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED HIGH PWATS AND DAYTIME
HEATING/INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THE FORCING FROM THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP TO BRING ABOUT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES OVER TIMING THE ONLY
REAL ISSUE PRECLUDING BUMPING POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE UP TO LOW LIKELY
AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. JUST LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
CONTINGENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH REMAIN QUESTION MARKS AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD THEN DIMINISH SOME WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY END ALTOGETHER WITH TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE KEPT
MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS IN PLAY RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY RANGE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80 ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS THEN RANGING THROUGH THE 60S
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING FOR MID JULY DIGGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND AS THE ATTENDANT COOL POOL ALOFT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ABOVE PATTERN EVOLUTION
WILL DICTATE A CONTINUATION OF BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TIED
TO THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES CIRCULATING THROUGH
THE DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE TIMING OF SUCH CAN BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...NEXT WEEK
TUESDAY COULD BE YET ANOTHER RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...850 MB TEMPS RANGING IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE +6C TO +8C RANGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S ON MONDAY
WOULD DROP BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS CORRESPONDINGLY ALSO FALLING SOME TEN DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS TO
IFR/LIFR JUST PAST MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH A FEW HOURS PAST DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY STORM MAY KICK UP WAVES A BIT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. COLDER AIR PASSING OVER THE LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
THE LAKES AND POSSIBLY RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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