Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 260553
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will track just to the south of the region
overnight and Friday, maintaining cool, cloudy conditions with
scattered light rain showers. Temperatures will moderate back to
normal for the weekend, though there will remain a chance for a
shower early Saturday, and then more widespread showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm later Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A closed upper low will move into Southern New England overnight.
Meanwhile latest surface analysis shows a broad surface low
reflections loosely centered across Eastern Pennsylvania. There
are spotty showers and some drizzle across Western New York,
which will continue overnight.

The saturated airmass and sopping wet antecedent conditions have
allowed for widespread fog to form over the western counties...with
some areas between Lake Erie and Rochester experiencing dense fog.
Web cams and area observations suggest that the coverage of the
dense fog is enough to warrant a dense fog advisory...which will be
in effect for these areas until shortly after daybreak.

Friday...the surface low will become better organized off the mid-
Atlantic coastline...though a surface trough will linger westward
behind this low. Within this trough, and under a west to northwest
flow will remain chances for a few sprinkles/light rain showers
through the day.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady tonight under the thick
cloud cover with lows in the lower to mid 50s. With the upper level
trough still overhead, highs Friday will only rebound back to the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface-based ridging will slide eastward into our region from
the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.
In addition, heights aloft will build over the region as shortwave
ridge pushes east into the region. A wave embedded within the
northern edge will slide across the region with the possibility of a
few stray showers Friday night and Saturday morning with the
Southern Tier having the best chance to see any measurable
precipitation. The arrival of somewhat drier air behind the wave
from mid day through the afternoon should help to bring some partial
sunshine. Weak warm air advection and sunshine should allow
afternoon highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Surface and upper ridging remains over the area for much of Saturday
night. Lead wave ahead of main upper trough will drop into the Great
Lakes as associated surface wave moves into the Ohio Valley. For the
most part Saturday night will be dry, before the leading edge of
some scattered shower activity returns to far western sections
toward Sunday morning.

Latest models continuing to highlight the Sunday and Sunday time
frame with increasing chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms, as the deepen trough moves in from the west. Models
remaining inconsistent on timing, but with the combination of
falling heights and warm air advection on the eastern flank we
should see showers and embedded thunderstorms fill in during the
day, especially by afternoon and continuing into Sunday night.
Temperatures look to remain above average with highs in the lower to
mid 70s Sunday followed by lows in the mid to upper 50s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For much of next week a large upper level low will slowly meander its
way across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. As a result
temperatures will trend from slightly above normal values Monday
(highs in the low 70s ) to slightly below normal values by mid-week
(highs in the 60s). Several shortwaves embedded in the general
cyclonic flow will support numerous opportunities for scattered
showers across the region, with a few embedded thunderstorms also
possible with the steep lapse rates aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A saturated airmass and very light low level flow through daybreak
will combine with wet antecedent conditions to produce widespread
low stratus and fog...some of which could be quite dense. This will
translate into widespread LIFR conditions across western New York...
although just MVFR cigs will be found east of Lake Ontario.

The low IFR cigs will remain in place through midday Friday...
expanding further east to include sites such as KART and KGTB. The
cigs will only marginally improve to 1500 ft for much of the area
during the afternoon and evening.

IFR to MVFR cigs can then be expected Friday night.

Outlook...
Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chc of showers early to the west.
Sunday...Mainly MVFR with showers likely. Monday and
Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
All small craft advisories have been cancelled as winds and waves
have dropped below small craft advisory levels.

In the wake of a departing storm system...westerly winds will
freshen a bit across the Lower Great lakes on Friday...but not
enough to warrant a new round of SCA`s.

A very weak surface pressure gradient will then be in place with the
passage of weak high pressure Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo has exceeded the daily precipitation record on Thursday of
1.21 inches established in 1874. Rochester was close to a
recorded rainfall. Daily record rainfall for Rochester for
Thursday was 1.74 inches set back in 1943.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>003-
     010>012-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...THOMAS/RSH



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