Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
220 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High pressure will keep dry and very warm weather across our
region through the first half of the week. An approaching cold
front may finally bring a chance of showers late Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with much cooler temperatures arriving late this
week in the wake of the cold front.


During this period...ridging at all levels will remain anchored
firmly overhead. Strong subsidence and plentiful dry air aloft
will maintain clear to mainly clear skies through tonight...with
only a little cirrus then rounding the ridge and pushing into the
area from the west on Monday. About the only real blemish on the
forecast will be the redevelopment of the usual Southern Tier
valley fog later on tonight...along with some patchier/lighter
fog in other rural areas.

With respect to temperatures...850 mb temps between +18C and +20C
will be supportive of highs mostly in the upper 80s across the
lower elevations this afternoon...though local lake breezes will
help to keep the lakeshores a bit cooler. Such highs will be very
close to daily records (88 in Buffalo...90 in Rochester...and 88
in Watertown). With higher dewpoints in place...lows tonight will
be a bit milder than the past few nights and will range from the
upper 50s/lower 60s across the North Country and interior portions
of the Southern Tier to the mid 60s elsewhere. Finally for Monday...
slightly warmer temps aloft should allow for afternoon highs to
mostly range from the mid 80s across the higher terrain to the
upper 80s/around 90 across the lower elevations...with only the
immediate lakeshores again being a little cooler. Our current
record high temps for the 25th were set in 2007 at all three of
our major climate sites and are 87 at Buffalo...92 at Rochester...
and 89 at Watertown.


The region will remain underneath ridging at the surface and aloft
to begin the period. This will maintain the dry weather pattern with
much above normal temperatures. 850 mb temperatures will be around
+18C Tuesday, supporting another day of unseasonably hot
temperatures with most highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, with
a few spots making another run at the 90 degree mark. The warmest
readings are expected across inland areas away from local lake
breeze circulations. It also remain very humid, with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s. This will make it feel uncomfortably hot,
despite the calender date with Heat Index values pushing into the
90s if not the air temperatures.

Ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper Great
Lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain well
above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still about 15
degrees above normal for this time of year.

The latest global/long range models are settling on a Wednesday
night timing for the weak cold front and also depicting a rather
anemic moisture pattern along it, while passing through the eastern
Great Lakes, suggesting only scattered light showers for the area.


Much cooler air is expected to spill across the region in the wake
of the cold front passage, this airmass change will get us back down
to near more seasonal values by Thursday, with highs in the mid to
upper 60s Thursday.

A shortwave is likely to drop across the Lower Great Lakes Friday,
with a reinforcing shot of cool air. Highs will be near to slightly
below normal, topping out in the 60s on Friday and Saturday. The air
aloft will be cool enough for some lake enhancement, with a
small chance of showers both Friday and Saturday.

Given this pattern, there still remains a chance that some locations
will not receive any measurable rainfall for the remainder of
September. In Buffalo it has been 15 days since there has been
measurable precipitation, and although this may be extended we still
have a long ways to go to reach the record. The longest dry stretch
without measurable precipitation in Buffalo is 30 days set back in
the fall of 1924.


VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period as ridging
at all levels remains parked directly overhead. The only exception
to this will come overnight through mid-Monday morning as LIFR
river valley fog redevelops across the Southern Tier...and
patchier/lighter fog and localized IFR/MVFR conditions form

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR - except local IFR/MVFR
conditions in Southern Tier valley fog later Monday night and
early Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
late Wednesday afternoon...Wednesday night...and again on Friday.


High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the first half of the week. This will provide a long
stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating
conditions, but not much wind for sailing.





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