Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 010834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
434 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SWING A PARADE
OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.
THESE ARE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT ON SATELLITE...AND MODELS ARE
SIMILARLY HAVING TROUBLES WITH THEM.  ONE WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NY AT 04Z WITH MOSTLY SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS.  THIS
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...BUT UPSTREAM DATA...LOOPED OVER
AT LEAST A DAY SHOWS THAT MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ON THE WAY.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME LEFT OVER
SPRINKLES EAST OF KROC DURING THE MORNING.  THEN...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...EXPECT CONVECTION
AND EVENTUAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON.  KBUF IS EXPECTED TO STAY
DRY...BUT EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
AND ALONG OR JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KJHW TO KROC.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING FOR A QUIET NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NNE FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JAMES BAY LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE THE LOW ITSELF BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY...BUT NEAR
NORMAL TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NYS DURING THE MORNING
WITH ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09-12Z.  THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.  THEN MESOSCALE CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
16-18Z.  KBUF AND KART SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CONVECTION WILL
INITIALLY BE CLOSE TO OR OVER KIAG...KJHW...AND KROC.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FALL APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATE
TODAY.  MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS
UNDER STORMS.  AFTER SOME EVENING CLEARING...EXPECT A STEADY
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCT -TSRA AND VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF






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