Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 211808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
208 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and the weekend with high pressure
holding in place across the region.


A seasonably strong 588dm mid-level ridge along with 850mb temps
running near +17C will continue our summer-like pattern into this
weekend despite the arrival of Autumn on Friday. Surface high
pressure will keep dry weather in place with high temps again
warming into the low to mid 80s or 10-15 degrees above normal
September levels.

Tonight, without a change in our weather pattern, expect more fog
and low stratus will again develop overnight similar to previous
nights. Fog will again be most prevalent in the interior Southern
Tier river valley locations and in the North Country low-lying areas
near the Black River and Saint Lawrence River Valleys. Stratus will
likely develop along the south shore of Lake Ontario and along the
NY/PA state line. Ideal radiational cooling will again support
temperatures again dipping down into the mid 50s inland to the low
60s near the lakes.

As mentioned above, Friday will see similar weather today. Dry
weather with plenty of sun once areas of morning fog and stratus
dissipate. Temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Autumn arrives at 4:02PM.


The weather will remain status-quo through the weekend as a
strong and dominant ridge of high pressure surface and aloft
remains parked over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes.
Strong subsidence and dry air will keep skies mostly sunny each
day through Sunday, with little more than some passing
high/thin cirrus at times. There will likely be river valley fog
across the Southern Tier each late night and morning, with
spotty light fog elsewhere in rural areas.

Temperatures will get even warmer over the weekend as the heart of
warmest temperatures at 850mb cross the region. Expect highs in the
lower to mid 80s at lower elevations Saturday, then mid to
upper 80s by Sunday. Weak synoptic scale flow and strong
differential heating will allow lake breezes to develop each
afternoon, keeping temperatures a little cooler within a few
miles of the lakes. The clear skies and light winds will allow
for fairly large diurnal swings, with lows Friday night dropping
back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake plains and low
to mid 50s across the interior Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario. Saturday night and Sunday night will be milder as low
level dewpoints increase. This will keep lows in the low to mid
60s on the lake plains and upper 50s in the cooler Southern Tier
valleys and Lewis County.


More of the same through the long term period as high pressure
surface and aloft remains dominant across the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes Monday through Wednesday. It will remain dry
Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday mid level heights begin to fall
with the approach of an upstream trough. This may erase enough of
the strong mid level cap to allow a few isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon, mainly
along and inland from the lake breeze boundaries.

Temperatures will remain very warm, with mid to upper 80s again
Monday at lower elevations away from the lakeshores. Temperatures
will begin to pull back just a little by Wednesday as temperatures
aloft begin to cool, but still well above normal and into the lower
80s at lower elevations.

A more significant pattern change will arrive by late next week as
the pattern changes across North America, allowing a longwave trough
to become established across the Great Lakes and eventually New
England. This will force temperatures back to normal by late next
week, and possibly even below normal by the following weekend going
into the first few days of October.


VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening with high
pressure in control. Another round of low stratus and fog is again
expected tonight with impacts most likely at KART/KJHW and KROC. IFR
is likely in low stratus and fog. This will dissipate late morning or
near midday with VFR again prevailing through Friday afternoon.


Friday night through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late
night and early morning with fog.


High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.





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