Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 051841
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE
COAST. IT WILL THEN BECOME UNSETTLED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE FREQUENT SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS FOUND OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND PARTICULARLY
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE RESPONSIBLE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH AWAY TO OUR EAST. FRESH ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 1 PM
SHOULD ONLY BE AN INCH OR SO FOR SITES MAINLY SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
BATAVIA. MEANWHILE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WAYNE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
SHOWERS...SOME LAKE SNOWS WILL BLOSSOM IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY LOW CAP OF 7-8K FT AND AN UNIMPRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS FROM ACCUMULATING
MORE THAN A FEW INCHES IN ANY ONE SPOT. THE DETAILS OFF EACH LAKE...

OFF LK ERIE...A 240-250 FLOW LATE THIS EVENING WILL BACK SOMEWHAT TO
AROUND 230 DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE BULK OF ANY
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE BUF METRO AREA AND ITS SOUTHERN SUBURBS.
ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH OR TWO BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON ON SATURDAY WHEN THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A 270-280 FLOW WILL INITIALLY FOCUS THE LAKE SNOWS
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
STEADILY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO 230-240 DEGREES. THE TIMING
OF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN CONTINUITY BY ABOUT 3
HOURS...AND SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 2-3 INCHES FOR THE TUG
HILL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH...AS A SLOWER
MOVEMENT COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

AS MENTIONED...THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END AS FLURRIES
EAST OF LK ERIE WHILE ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ENCOURAGE DRY WEATHER...DESPITE
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 5 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM
TODAY...REACHING TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE TUG HILL
NORTH... WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE TUG HILL NORTH WILL BE VERY LIGHT
MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE MID 20S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

ON SUNDAY... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STILL STALLED NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER... IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS LIMITED TO
AROUND 30 IN THE NORTH COUNTRY... ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
WEAKLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST/OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE VCNTY OF
WISCONSIN WITH NOTABLY COLDER AIR POURING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM...A
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BACK
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO JAMES BAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS FROM ENCROACHING OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MAINSTREAM
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCLUDE 2 STD HEIGHT DEPARTURES FOR BOTH A WEST
COAST RIDGE AND AN ERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS
HIGHLY CORRELATED TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THIS PARTICULAR OCCURRENCE WILL MOST CERTAINLY
FOLLOW SUITE.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF SOME OF
THE SFC FEATURES...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...00Z GFS/EC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT WOULD SLOWLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL JET WAVE INTERACTS WITH
IT AND FORMS A COASTAL STORM.

AS THIS COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A TASTE OF
ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -20C WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES FOR SITES SUCH AS KBUF AND KIAG THROUGH 20Z...
WITH CORRESPONDING CIGS AT MVFR TO VFR LEVELS. WIDE OPEN VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF ROCHESTER...INCLUDING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHEAST OF LK ERIE AND EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WHERE SOME LAKE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS.
THIS WILL INCLUDE KBUF AND KART AFTER ABOUT 09Z.

FOR SATURDAY...MORNING LAKE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT TO QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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