Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 220624
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE IN BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE EARLY FALL WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THIS ACTIVITY FOUND OVER OR IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHICH IS NO DOUBT HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY. THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE LAKE.

MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...ANY ACTIVITY IS LIGHTER AND LOWER IN
COVERAGE...WITH SURFACE OBS/RADARS/OTHER REPORTS SUGGESTING A MIX OF
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THIS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A SUBTLE DIMINISHING
TREND LATER ON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER EAST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE EQUATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SWEEPS INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LARGELY FALLING INTO THE 45 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS
WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW WITH VERY SHALLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT COURTESY
OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND COLD AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY START TO
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THAT LIMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FLOW...COUPLED WITH REMAINING MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CORN BELT STATES WILL BE EXPANDING
EASTWARD THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FROST CONCERNS. IF ANY
FROST DOES OCCUR...THE LIKELY AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE NYS LINE WHERE
THE MOST CLEARING IS POSSIBLE.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS STILL DISPLAY SOME MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 5-8K FEET
TUESDAY MORNING AND WE COULD START THE DAY WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND DEPARTS
EASTWARD...A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WARMER AND DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD...INCREASING THE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING A WARMER AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START
OF WHAT MAY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OF COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN CONCERT
WITH AN INCREASE IN WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTRIBUTIONS
FROM THE LAKES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
LOWER-END MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF IFR FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH MORE
SPOTTY/BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOME OF OUR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL.

FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING ON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN CONCERT WITH
DIURNAL INFLUENCES...THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS FIRST
LIFTING TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR...THEN SCATTERING OUT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC PUSHES
IN OUR DIRECTION. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SOME LOCALIZED IFR IN
VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKES ERIE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WAVES WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS AN EXPANSIVE DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/WOOD







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.