Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221725
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
125 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will allow dry and very warm weather to
continue through the weekend and into the first half of next week. A
cold front will finally bring a chance of showers by Wednesday night
and Thursday, followed by much cooler air to end next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery continues to show a thin veil of high
cirrus across the region this afternoon, associated with the outer
edge of upper level outflow from post-tropical cyclone Jose.
Otherwise, expect this cirrus to thin through the afternoon with
plenty of sun filtering through. High pressure will remain ridged
across the eastern Great Lakes, with the axis of a seasonably strong
588-590dm 500mb ridge approaching western NY from the central Great
Lakes. 850mb temps running +16C to +17C will support highs in the
low to mid 80s across lower elevations and around 80 on the hills.
Light northeast winds will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario in
the upper 70s. Fall arrives at 4:02PM.

High pressure surface and aloft will remain in place tonight. Expect
typical river valley fog across the western Southern Tier again late
overnight, with some patchy fog again for areas east and southeast
of Lake Ontario. Lows will range from the lower 60s on the lake
plains to the mid 50s across the interior Southern Tier and east of
Lake Ontario.

Saturday expect more of the same summer-like weather for the first
full day of Fall. The center of the seasonably-strong 590dm 500mb
ridge will shift closer to western and central NY with 850mb temps
climbing to +18C. After morning fog dissipates expect mainly sunny
skies for most. A weak trough rounding the top of the central Great
Lakes may bring a band of clouds across the North County and SLV.
Expect high temps to be even warmer reaching into the low to mid
80s. A high of 86 in Buffalo would tie a previous record set back in
1936 but Rochester and Watertown records should stay just our of
reach.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The region will bask in mid-summer like warmth for the second
half of the weekend and beginning of next week. The highly
amplified pattern across the CONUS will build a strong 590dm
ridge over the region. NAFES and EC ensembles are in strong
agreement on the magnitude of the ridging and support 850 mb
temperatures in the top 99th percentile for this time of year,
particularly on Sunday and Monday when the thermal ridge axis
crosses the region. The warmest readings will come Sunday and
Monday, when 850 mb temperatures pushing +20C support highs well
into the 80s, and pushing the 90 degree mark.


Several daily high temperature records may be challenged in this
time frame, particularly at Buffalo and Rochester. Buffalo`s record
highs for Sunday and Monday are 88 and 87, respectively, while
Rochester`s records highs are 90 and 92, respectively. Buffalo may
stand the best chance at breaking a daily record high temperature on
either day, but especially Monday as winds become more south to east
promoting downsloping and limiting lake breeze cooling. Ironically
Buffalo has also made it the entire summer without hitting the 90
degree mark, but now that we are officially in autumn, Buffalo may
make a run at the 90 degree mark. Nighttime low temperatures will be
very consistent each night from Saturday night through Monday night
with radiational cooling under the ridging aloft. Lows will range
from the upper 50s in interior valleys to the mid 60s in the lake
plains. Valley fog will be possible each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A pattern change enters the picture for the second half of next week
going into the beginning of October. Global models are in good
agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will make a
reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door for
troughing across the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast, as we
have seen for much of the summer.

After the heat peaks Sunday/Monday as mentioned above, the ridging
starts to weaken and shift eastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a
trough moves over the upper Great Lakes by late Wednesday. The
result will be subtly cooling temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday,
although daily highs will still be in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday,
and the low to mid 80s Wednesday (which remains about 15 degrees
above climo for this time of year). Finally a chance for showers or
even a few thunderstorms enters the picture as a cold front eases
through the region in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame.
Despite much cooler air expected to spill across the region in the
wake of the cold front passage, this airmass change will only get us
back down to near more seasonal values by late week, with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A veil of thin cirrus continues across the region this afternoon
associated with the outermost portion of the upper level outflow
from post-tropical cyclone Jose. VFR will prevail with the thin/high
cirrus slowly thinning through this afternoon. Expect more of the
same tonight with VFR in most locations, and typical Southern Tier
river valley fog with local IFR possible after about 06Z but more
likely by 10z. There may also be some sunrise fog at KART with a
short window of IFR. This will all dissipate by 14/15z with VFR again
expected through the rest of Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late
night and early morning with fog.
Wednesday...chance of showers and thunderstorms with mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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