Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
849 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED OVER
WATERTOWN THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH 05Z PER
NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS IT SETTLES OVER THE TUG HILL REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
WEAKENING SNOWFALL RATES. IN THE MEAN TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WATERTOWN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY / NORTHERN TUG HILL
COULD PUSH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS NOT
MEETING THE 5 MPH CRITERIA FOR ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS






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