Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 041749
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN TODAY. TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERALL...GENERALLY A VERY NICE INDEPENDENCE DAY IS IN PROGRESS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE
VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND SOME INSTABILITY /500 J/KG/. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND REMAIN WELL INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

TONIGHT...IF YOU ARE ATTENDING ANY FIRE WORKS SHOWS...WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY LINGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG
IS LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY BRINING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO +16 TO +18C WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE MAY... ALSO AIDED BY THE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW... WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM SPOT NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS FAR WNY LATER MONDAY...AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT /WITHIN A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/ WILL DROP
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
REMAINING AT ONLY 70F FOR A LOW.

ON TUESDAY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL STEER A MID-LEVEL WAVE OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND +16 TO +18C... ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... EXPECT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED. SOME WEAK CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN WAVES MAY PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINING PERIODS OF INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
WITH THE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA... ANY DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEAK INTO TUESDAY EVENING... AND THUS DONT EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LOW.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S... WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER STALLING OUT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SOME SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY... THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL... AS VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO ONE OF THE DAY OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD
SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR
FROM A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAFF SITES THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW
AFTER 06Z. SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES...WITH
LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR



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