Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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235
FXUS61 KBUF 050450
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1150 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD AIR ALOFT AND AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES...REACHING WESTERN NY AROUND 03Z AND CENTRAL NY BY 09Z.
THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WITH A VERY MINOR BOOST FROM LIMITED LAKE MOISTURE. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND VERY MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORES WITH SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER. THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN LOW 20S TO THE MID TEENS.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND FILL ACROSS WESTERN TO
CENTRAL NY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DWINDLING AND
SKIES CLEARING AWAY FROM THE LAKE INDUCED CLOUD FIELDS TO THE EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S UNDER THE LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER...AND TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE PARTIALLY SUNNIER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD ARE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FEATURING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL NOT BE INTERESTING THOUGH...AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY UPSTREAM. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE EFFECTS OF THAT WILL NOT BE
FELT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND. FIRST..THE DETAILS OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL PROVIDE FAIR DRY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A WESTERLY FLOW OF -10 TO -12C H85 AIR
WILL GENERATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO SUPPORT
SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL BE A
CAP AROUND 7K FT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT A SUBTLE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESIDUAL MESOSCALE LAKE SUPPORT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE FOR SITES NORTH OF THE TUG HILL. SNOW ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA WILL
STILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THOUGH WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER AN INCH.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE UNDER AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH AN INCH OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONT WILL `WASH OUT` ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER ON SUNDAY WHILE A STRONG...PATTERN CHANGING SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ENSUING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES IN THE PROCESS...AND THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FAIR DRY
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FLURRIES...ITS
WORTH NOTING THAT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST REAL SNOW FREE DAY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST/OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE VCNTY OF
WISCONSIN WITH NOTABLY COLDER AIR POURING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE DOWNSTREAM...A
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BACK
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO JAMES BAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE BULK OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS FROM ENCROACHING OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MAINSTREAM
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCLUDE 2 STD HEIGHT DEPARTURES FOR BOTH A WEST
COAST RIDGE AND AN ERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS
HIGHLY CORRELATED TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THIS PARTICULAR OCCURRENCE WILL MOST CERTAINLY
FOLLOW SUITE.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF SOME OF
THE SFC FEATURES...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMPLEX
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME...12Z GFS/EC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT WOULD SLOWLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL JET WAVE INTERACTS WITH
IT AND FORMS A COASTAL STORM.

AS THIS COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A TASTE OF
ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS ARND -20C WILL SPILL ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A TRANSITION FROM WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN SITES...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR EAST OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR...THEN AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW
WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ON
FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/RSH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA/WCH



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