Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 101446
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS WILL SUPPLY US WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER INCLUDING
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH...WARMER MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING`S UPDATE. IT WILL BE
PLEASANT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE US WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TODAY WILL BE A PASSING H5 TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE BASE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE
HURON AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE THIS LATE MORNING WILL CROSS LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THE REMAINING MORNING HOURS...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
QUEBEC CANADA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SW NYS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS TROUGH PASSES.

WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
ENHANCED CU WITHIN THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... RISING HGTS
AND WARMING H5 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD COMBINE WITH OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CAP TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS ISOLATED.
GREATEST NUMBER OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SW NYS.

OVERALL THOUGH...TODAY WILL FEATURE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80 FOR THE LAKE PLAINS
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS MOONLIT SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH
READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE READINGS WILL BE NEARLY 10
DEG F BELOW NORMAL MID JULY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A STRETCH OF FINE MID-JULY WEATHER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE AXIS OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AS A SUBTLE
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF BEGINS TO SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND ADVECTS A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE 00Z NAM ACTUALLY BEGINS
THIS PROCESS SOME 6-12 HOURS EARLIER AND CONSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES DURING FRIDAY...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO APPEARS
OVERDONE AND HAS THUS BEEN DISCOUNTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C SUPPORTING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY...
THOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE
DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND OUT
TO SEA...WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND
SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTENING AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH
OFF SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE
FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WILL THUS
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...THOUGH COULD EVENTUALLY SEE THESE BEING BUMPED UP TO THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY DAY...WITH
THE GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS
TO BETWEEN +13 AND +15C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
SLID OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER ANOTHER AND STRONGER SUCH
FEATURE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST
THIS NEXT FEATURE PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...IN GENERAL ALL
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A ROUGH CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTING AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED
FOR ANY REAL SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID/UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

DURING SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
OUR REGION...WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED HIGH PWATS AND DAYTIME
HEATING/INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THE FORCING FROM THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP TO BRING ABOUT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES OVER TIMING THE ONLY
REAL ISSUE PRECLUDING BUMPING POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE UP TO LOW LIKELY
AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. JUST LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
CONTINGENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH REMAIN QUESTION MARKS AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD THEN DIMINISH SOME WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY END ALTOGETHER WITH TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE KEPT
MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS IN PLAY RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TO GENERALLY RANGE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80 ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS THEN RANGING THROUGH THE 60S
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING FOR MID JULY DIGGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND AS THE ATTENDANT COOL POOL ALOFT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ABOVE PATTERN EVOLUTION
WILL DICTATE A CONTINUATION OF BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TIED
TO THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES CIRCULATING THROUGH
THE DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE TIMING OF SUCH CAN BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND AN ATTENDANT SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...NEXT WEEK
TUESDAY COULD BE YET ANOTHER RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...850 MB TEMPS RANGING IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE +6C TO +8C RANGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S ON MONDAY
WOULD DROP BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS CORRESPONDINGLY ALSO FALLING SOME TEN DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS (INCL. KJHW)
WHERE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







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