Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATER ON IN THE WORK WEEK...SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE GIVING WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
THAT WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 1830Z...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES LEFTOVER
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER
LAKES. THESE WILL END ALTOGETHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH
SKIES THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DRYING
INCREASE AND HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/
CLOUD COVER. ONCE THIS OCCURS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE FOR THE BALANCE OF TONIGHT...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHTENING WINDS...AND INCOMING DRY/COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BY NORMAL LATE APRIL
STANDARDS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO AVERAGE OUT BELOW
NORMAL...AND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
THE WARMEST OVERALL READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS...WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO
LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY. THIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A COOL AIRMASS TO BRING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 20S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO CANADA AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES.
AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERING AROUND A
COMMON SOLUTION NOW WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES JUST CLIPPING AREAS NEAR THE PA STATE LINE
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FIRST TO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
BY MIDDAY...THEN SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HELPING TO SLOW
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST...AND A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER
SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS AGAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY RAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE PA STATE LINE...WHILE THE CANADIAN
GEM IS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
KEPT A BROAD AREA OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE PA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN RUN JUST A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE OHIO VALLEY WAVE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS A
BIT UP IN THE AIR. AT FIRST GLANCE... THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
TERRIBLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN... WITH LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING UP THE EAST COAST... TROUGHING INTO NEW ENGLAND
KEEPING A FEED OF COOLER CANADIAN SOURCED AIR INTO REGION. A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS... WHICH
WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PER
THE EC / OR EJECT SHORTWAVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST PER THE GFS. WITH
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES... EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE FEED OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DRY
BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...
WHICH WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING EJECTS
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND SCOURS
OUT THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ONCE SKIES DO CLEAR...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
FRIDAY...VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE BRIEFLY INCREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY- WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
THE LAKE FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO MEXICO BAY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...
WITH WINDS AND WAVES THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH THESE COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH
CRITERIA AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TO MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUB-
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR



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