Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 291942
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW WEST TO EAST RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
TO NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL MAINTAIN ONE MORE EVENING AND NIGHT OF
FAIR WEATHER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COVER TO TO LIMIT OR PREVENT THE FORMATION OF
EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT A
SURFACE LOW ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CUT OFF AS THE SURFACE LOW
FILLS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A MORE CLOUDY
AND POSSIBLY SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
BULK OF TUESDAY. THE GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT STILL ONLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...THE FALLING TEMPERATURES LIMITED BY THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER...TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL EARLY OCT VALUES...WITH THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE COMING AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SYNOPTIC DESCRIPTION IS A LITTLE SIMPLISTIC
THOUGH...AS THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A PESKY CLOSED H5 LOW IN
THE VCNTY OF NW PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT A
LEFTOVER SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER A CAP BASED ARND 3K FT WILL KEEP A
WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH H85 TEMPS ARND 10C
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 (MID
70S GEN VALLEY).

MORE DEFINITIVE CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE H5
RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND ITS CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A DEEPENING
CUTTER STORM IN THE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AN
AVERAGE OF 12C...WHICH IS WELL ABV NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THURSDAY SHOULD THUS BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME VALLEY THERMOMETERS AND SITES NEAR THE IAG
ESCARPMENT PUSHING CLOSE TO 80F. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE
DOWNRIGHT WARM WITH READINGS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS NOT FALLING OUT
OF THE 60S. TO PUT THIS INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...OUR NORMAL MAX TEMPS
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR STRETCH OF INDIAN SUMMER WILL COME TO A CLOSE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS MUCH COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SOME 20 DEG F LOWER DURING THE WEEKEND THAN FROM READINGS
DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

SYNOPTICALLY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEPENING CUTTER
STORM THAT WILL LIFT ALMOST DUE NORTH FROM CHICAGO FRIDAY...WHILE
SWEEPING A PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY
(ESP EAST OF THE GEN VALLEY)...A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LATER IN THE DAY-FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE AXIS OF
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH WILL BECOME ALIGNED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF ZERO C...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR SITES EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION IN A WEST TO EAST RIDGE. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS SLOWED TO SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT...POISED TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT OVERALL CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH A
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING TO MID LEVEL CEILINGS  AFTER DAYBREAK.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG
WITH LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD BUT WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES
THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE LAKES WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
WHICH WILL INCREASE WAVES TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO. ON
LAKE ERIE WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY FRIDAY... PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH






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