Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251140
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING A
ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN ON THURSDAY BEFORE COLD WEATHER RETURNS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MID WEST THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
ACROSS MICHIGAN...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF WAA AND THE DPVA WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE WILL BRING A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY RAINFALL THAT WILL
TRACK SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AS THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

QPF AMOUNTS TODAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS ON THE WET SIDE OF
MODEL ENVELOPE...AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING QPF EXCEEDING A
QUARTER INCH PER THE CIPS TIME-LAGGED GUIDANCE (FOR COMPARISON THE
NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW A QUARTER INCH). GEFS REFORECAST QPF
PROBABILITIES SHOW WE WILL LIKELY EXCEED A TENTH OF A INCH...BUT
EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF A INCH IS UNLIKELY...AND THE REFORECAST DATA
SUGGESTS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE TOO WET. THIS PLUS THE FAST-MOVING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM POINT TOWARD USING THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING
THE NAM/SREF/GFS/ECMWF/HIRESWRF...WHICH GIVES FORECAST QPF BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TO +4 TO +6C THIS AFTERNOON
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S WITH A FEW AREAS
PUSHING CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY
A ROLE IN LIMITING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH ENOUGH
SCATTERING OUT OF THE SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE LOCATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE GENESEE VALLEY PUSH CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES.

WINDS...EXPECT A BREEZY BUT NOT OVERLY WINDY TODAY. DESPITE CORE OF
50+ KNOT 925 MB WINDS CROSSING THE AREA...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG WAA AND THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES / +PV ANOMALY PASSING WEST
OF THE AREA...THERE ARE NO REAL MECHANISMS TO REALIZE THAT TYPE OF
WIND AT THE SURFACE. INSTEAD WINDS 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON TODAY.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS TONIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO
THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
ACT AS A GUIDE FOR THE NEXT WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON THURSDAY. BUT TONIGHT WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
THE TWO WAVES...WITH JUST SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WAVE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL
SLOWLY EASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE UP TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS ON
SOME OF THE LOCAL TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THE THREE MAIN WATERWAYS
IN THE BUFFALO AREA (CAZENOVIA, CAYUGA, BUFFALO CREEKS). FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

THE SURFACE WAVE WILL EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO LEFTOVER SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STEADIER SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
COLD AIR ADVECTION/UPSLOPE REGIME. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER AN
INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES.

THE UPSLOPE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DELAY ANY REAL CLEARING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SEND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS
NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS...WITH A VERY GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING.

ON SUNDAY...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE REGION PCPN FREE. A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY COULD THEN INTRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF MONDAY SHOULD PCPN
FREE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A NICE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S...
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW-NE THIS MORNING. INITIALLY
VFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELP KEEP THE DECK ABOVE
3K FT. HOWEVER IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...VISIBILITY COULD BE
TEMPORARILY LIMITED TO MVFR. BY THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING MOISTURE
AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO BECOME PRIMARILY
MVFR WITH SOME IFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW).

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE HIGHER WAVE ACTION OF 2-4 FEET OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS WEEK WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN TODAY WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS RAINFALL...IT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A
SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RAIN AMOUNTS. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND COLDER WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN COOLER (JUST ABOVE FREEZING)
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL...AND NEW SNOWMELT
CAUSED BY THE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN RUNOFF. WHILE SNOWCOVER HAS BECOME SPARSE AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...ENOUGH SNOWPACK REMAINS IN
THE WOODS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE RIVER HEADWATERS TO BE
A CONCERN.

LATEST MMEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH RAIN AND SNOWMELT TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS...ESPECIALLY THE BUFFALO CREEKS
AND THE UPPER GENESEE RIVER. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ROUGHLY A 10
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THESE FORECAST POINTS WILL REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF AND SNOWMELT.

A VISUAL INSPECTION OF THE BUFFALO CREEKS DONE MONDAY SHOWED LITTLE
ICE REMAINING...AT LEAST ON THE UPPER SECTIONS. OUR SURVEY FROM
HARLEM ROAD UPSTREAM FOUND LITTLE ICE LEFT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CHUNKS OF ICE ALONG THE SHORELINE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THERE IS
SOME ICE IN THE LOWEST REACHES OF THE BUFFALO RIVER...AND THERE IS
STILL ICE IN THE RIVERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BASED ON OUR LATEST
FORECAST...THAWING DEGREE HOURS REACH ABOUT 400 ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET THE ICE MOVING AGAIN
WHERE IT REMAINS.

HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE LATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK (ESF) PRODUCT...AND THE RISK FOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE
WEEK IS DISCUSSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). IF THERE
IS GOING TO BE FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT THIS SPRING...THIS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO BE THE SYSTEM TO DO IT FOR THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...GENESEE...AND ALLEGHENY BASINS. IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL/TMA







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