Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271016
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
616 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Today, a weak area of low pressure will slide eastward, north of
Lake Ontario, while producing morning rain showers across Western
New York, with activity lingering into the afternoon hours across
the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Mild air temperatures will continue
today, though cooler air will slowly increase across the region
through Thursday. Additional rain showers Tuesday will taper off
Tuesday night, to be then followed by a period of dry weather
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface analysis this morning places an area of low pressure to the
northwest of Lake Ontario. A loop of Water Vapor imagery shows the
upper level low near Lake Huron, nearly over the surface low. A weak
warm front extending from this low bisects our region this morning,
with rain showers largely viewed on regional radars to the north and
east of this front.

For today as this warm front lingers across our region, expect
numerous morning showers to taper down to scattered activity, ending
from west to east as the surface low tracks eastward across southern
Canada. Rainfall for the rest of today will range from around a
tenth of an inch early today across WNY, and upwards to a third of
an inch across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Rivers and creeks
will continue to run high, but none are expected to overflow their
banks.

Behind this warm front dewpoints will rise well into the 40s across
WNY, and winds will veer, from southerly this morning, to a
southwest flow by mid to late morning. These moist, southwest winds
over a still cool Lake Erie may produce low clouds and fog, that
will advance inland, northeastward from Lake Erie this morning, and
possibly linger into the early afternoon. In addition some patchy
fog will be possible across the hills of SW NYS today...and as this
moisture works its way eastward, some fog will be possible later
today and tonight across the Eastern Lake Ontario region where areas
of snow linger, and the ground remains nearly frozen.

Tonight a weakening area of low pressure will advance across the
Ohio Valley. This feature may bring several rain showers that will
reach WNY before sunrise tomorrow.

With little to no change in airmass expected today...temperatures
should again climb into the 50s across most areas...while possibly
reaching the 60F mark again across favored downslope flow regions
south of Lake Ontario. Tonight lows within a moist airmass will drop
back into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weakening mid-level trough will move across the region on Tuesday.
00Z model consensus has trended south with this wave, with some
model guidance even keeping northern portions of the cwa dry.
Following these trends, will maintain categorical PoPs south of
Buffalo, but lower these to the north. This wave should produce a
few hours of rain, mainly during the morning and early afternoon
hours on Tuesday. The day will be far from a washout, with a period
of fairly nice weather expected across Western New York Tuesday
afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s across Western
New York to the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Eastern Lake
Ontario Region.

After this, high pressure will expand across Ontario province
Tuesday night, with a ridge axis extending across the Lower Great
Lakes Region Wednesday and Thursday. A few light showers may linger
Tuesday night from residual moisture and upslope enhancement. This
may mix with snow across the North Country, with no accumulation.
After this, there will be an extended period of dry weather.

Upslope clouds may linger Tuesday night but should scatter out
Wednesday with temperatures aloft probably not cold enough for lake
effect clouds despite the northerly flow. Wednesday will be
seasonable with highs in the 40s, and Thursday a few degrees warmer
with southern portions reaching 50. The ridge axis will be across
our region Wednesday night, but the surface high will be to our
north. Expect decent radiational cooling, but winds may not go
completely calm with lows in the mid 20s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week
after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the
Four Corners region during the first half of the week, then eject
ENE across the central Plains to the Ohio Valley by Friday. 00Z
guidance has come into better agreement, with the ECMWF closer to
the `wet` GFS/GGEM guidance. Increasing warm advection and moisture
transport ahead of this trough will likely bring showers Thursday
night mainly in Western NY. This system is likely to bring rain to
all areas Friday and Friday night as the deep mid level trough and
associated surface low cross the region. The system will be filling
with time, which generally keeps forcing and moisture transport on
the weaker side which will in turn keep rain amounts relatively
modest.

This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered
showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move
to the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture
hanging back across the Lower Great Lakes. Moisture and rain chances
should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern
seaboard.

Temperatures will likely run near to slightly above average through
the period, with highs generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s and
lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS several waves of rain showers will continue to pass
across the region over the next 6 hours, with activity mainly from
KROC and points eastward. A southerly wind will maintain most TAF
sites MVFR or greater in flight category to start the TAFS, except
for KJHW where low stratus and IFR ceilings are expected to continue
through much of the TAF cycle.

There is increasing confidence that a period of IFR flight
conditions will be possible northeast of Lake Erie between 14Z and
18Z as dewpoints climb, and winds become southwesterly. This wind
direction, transporting moisture over the cool lake waters may
produce IFR flight conditions for KBUF/KIAG either in the form of
low stratus or both low stratus and fog. As winds veer to
southwesterly later this afternoon and evening some IFR flight
conditions will be possible across KART as well.

Flight conditions will largely remain MVFR/VFR across KROC, as low
stratus from Lake Erie will likely not extend well inland owing to
the weak synoptic flow.

Winds will remain light this period, and diminish to light and
variable overnight as weak high pressure pushes towards the region.
The weak flow, coupled with still plenty of low level moisture may
allow for some low stratus in the IFR/MVFR range to develop across
the region Monday night. In addition a few rain showers will reach
far WNY by late in the night.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Will cancel the small craft advisory with this update for the Lake
Ontario region as winds associated with a weak area of low pressure
passing by to the north should remain below SCA thresholds.

Today through through Thursday an extended period of below SCA
conditions are expected on the lakes as an area of high pressure
will press towards the lakes, bringing light winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flows will remain high on the Black Creek and Oatka Creek in Monroe
county. Forecast points at Churchville and Garbutt are just above
action stage and near crest early this morning. They should
gradually fall today, with no flooding expected.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL



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