Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 161811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTEREND NEAR ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY BUT ALL IN ALL A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TAP.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
IN STORE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP HOLD TEMPS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THURSDAY WARM
AIR ADVECTS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO MINUS FIVE TO ZERO SO
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR







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