Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281948
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES...WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS AND COOL AIR. THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAYTIME CLOUDS DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL MEAN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT A COOL LATE SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S OVER LOWLAND
AREAS...WITH MID 50S BEING FOUND RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
ALLOW A WARMING RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL...TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST CERTAINLY AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHILE PCPN COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN SOME AREAS. THIS
WILL BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW THAT WILL FEATURE
RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST AND IMPULSES OF ENERGY THAT WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...AND WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELOW 5K FT...CANNOT
JUSTIFY GOING ANY HIGHER THAN SLGT CHC POPS. THE USE OF SPRINKLES IN
THE WORDING FROM CONTINUITY SEEMS TO WORK PERFECT IN THIS CASE...SO
WILL CARRY INTO THIS PACKAGE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A NOTABLY WARMER
NIGHT THAN ITS PREDECESSORS...AS MINS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF 60.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS.
PWAT VALUES WILL NEARLY DOUBLE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH VALUES
OF 0.8" CLIMBING TO ARND 1.6". THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPES FORECAST TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALL THAT WILL
BE NEEDED WILL BE A TRIGGER OR FOCUSED SOURCE OF LIFT...WHICH COULD
COME FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH OF BUFFALO. GIVEN THE FORECAST
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...AM SKEPTICAL OF ANY HELP
COMING FROM A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF ERIE. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...SHORT MBE VECTORS (AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES) WILL PRESENT AN INCREASED RISK FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A VERY WARM LATE SUMMER DAY WITH APPARENT
TEMPS PUSHING 90 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND VALLEYS OF WRN NEW YORK
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD
CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. A 35KT JET
ARND 5K FT SHOULD ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 1.75 TO NEARLY 2" IN PLACE...WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS
FROM CONTINUITY. THE SFC TROUGH IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE MOISTURE
FIELD IN THE GFS. AM SOMEWHAT PUZZLED BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH
FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF CONTINUITY AND THE GFS...IS AN OUTLIER.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT ADDED FROM THE PROXIMITY OF
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION (RR QUAD) OF AN 80KT H25 JET OVER SRN
ONTARIO.

ON SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
WHILE THE RICHEST PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST...THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
REMAINING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. WILL RAISE
POPS A BIT FROM CONTINUITY AND INCLUDE LIKELY NUMBERS FOR ALL BUT
THE IAG FRONTIER. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WARM
AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...MID LEVEL DRYING AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL
PROMOTE AN ENDING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD...A BROAD RIDGE
DOMINATING THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WITH TIME AND PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON LABOR DAY AND
PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK BOUNDARIES
AND A DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THOUGH WILL OFFER JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY IN PLACE.

A PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT ALL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS RETURNING TO THE MID TEENS.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...
WITH EVEN WARMER MORE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
FOR THE ENSUING DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TO
FORM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KJHW WITH MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITY LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL DURING FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LESSEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WAVES WILL
ALSO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 2 FEET ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH







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