Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 172005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF




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