Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231731
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1231 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY...THOUGH LINGERING WEAK RIDGING WILL STILL REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH TONIGHT. ASIDE
FROM SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS MORNING...THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE FINGERLAKES REGION OUTWARD.
THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
CLEARING TAKING THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE- WISE...SOME
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN 925 MB TEMPS RECOVERING
TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTLINE. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NARROW ZONE OF COMPENSATING
SUBSIDENCE AND LINGERING RIDGING/DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN HELP TEMPS TO REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN
SOME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE WILL SIT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...SQUEEZED
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. NAM/GFS BUFKIT NOW SHOWING
LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY BUT SKY WILL FILL WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH. THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF SNOWFALL.

THE COASTAL LOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND NOT HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND THE WAVE ALOFT WILL BRING
MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOSTLY ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE
CAP AT 3KFT WILL SEVERELY LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LATE NIGHT LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWEST 20S...SINGLE NUMBERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL RECOVER ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MID TEENS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ANOTHER LOW WILL SCOOT BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...
HELD TO THE SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPTING THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. THE CHILL CONTINUES WITH
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST SITES...ZERO TO 10
BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WONT MAKE IT OUT OF THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WHICH DOES SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW. THIS WOULD
LARGELY BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA...HOWEVER IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY SPARSE IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ON TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...GFS SLIDES THE HIGH SOUTHWARD WITH WEAK CLIPPER LOW
PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE
FINGER LAKES REGION OUTWARD. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ANY
LINGERING WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF WATEROWN WILL
DISSIPATE. CIGS WILL ALSO TEND TO LIFT OVER TIME ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MVFR RANGE.

TONIGHT...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTLINE. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...A NARROW ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE AND LINGERING
RIDGING/DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHILE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS
SHOULD BE MORE COMMON IN LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/ATTENDANT MVFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO PROVINCE TRACKS EAST TO JAMES BAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE FLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO THAT WILL
LIKELY LAST INTO SATURDAY. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

PLEASE NOTE THAT DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVERAGE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY PROGRAM FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA
RIVER HAS BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON...
AND WILL RESUME IN THE SPRING ONCE THE ICE MELTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/LEVAN
NEAR TERM...JJR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR/LEVAN
MARINE...JJR/LEVAN







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