Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261451
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic
for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with
the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading
up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few light showers are pushing across Western New York late this
morning ahead of weak warm front. The most concentrated area is
approaching Monroe county near 11am. Temperature and humidity levels
today continue to edge up higher as the front lifts across the
region. Dewpoints have already reached the lower 60s here in Buffalo
and should climb to this level elsewhere by this afternoon. High
temperatures should again reach into the upper 70s and 80s.

A shortwave trough and ribbon of vorticity currently indicated on WV
imagery pushing east of Michigan is forecast to arrive over Western
New York this afternoon where it will be the focus for triggering
showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values per 12z NAM should rise to
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, with greatest instability expected just
east of Buffalo. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing this afternoon should work its way eastward across the
forecast area through the early evening hours. Another area of
convection will be possible across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario during the afternoon hours as well, though confidence is a
little lower here owing to lower instability and possible lake
shadowing. 0-6km bulk wind shear across the forecast area is
expected to reach only 20-25 kts, so activity is expected to remain
below severe levels, however with PWATS forecast to climb above 1.5
inches, some storms could produce heavy rain.

Tonight, the mid level wave will push into New England. This
combined with diminishing diurnal instability will result in
diminishing showers from west to east. Overnight it will be
mainly dry, although a few spotty showers or thunderstorms still
cannot be ruled out in the weak warm advection regime, especially
if any convectively generated vorticity maxima from upstream drift
into the region. The combination of boundary layer moisture and
light winds will result in patchy fog in any areas with ample
clearing. Lows will be in the mid 60s across the Lake Plains, and
lower 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a very summer-like pattern on Friday and Saturday,
with an upper level ridge axis extending from the Mid-Atlantic to
the lower Great Lakes. There will be little or no large scale ascent
due to this ridging, but moderate instability will support some
showers and thunderstorms along and inland of the lake breeze
boundaries, with mid to upper chance range PoPs each afternoon and
evening.

Areal coverage should be quite sparse, with only low chances for any
precipitation at any one given location. 850mb temps rise to around
+17C to +18C, which will support highs in the mid 80s in most areas
with upper 80s to even 90 possible from the Genesee Valley to
central NY. It will be cooler along the immediate lakeshores,
especially during the afternoon hours when the lake breeze becomes
better established.

Any showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish in coverage
during the nighttime. Again a few spotty showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out if any convectively generated vorticity maxima
from upstream drift into the region. Overnight temperatures will be
warm with lows in the upper 60s across the Lake Plains and the mid
60s across interior sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summers warmth will begin this period...with a slight break midweek
as both air and dewpoint temperatures will turn down a few degrees.

On Sunday the ridge of high pressure that gripped the start of the
holiday weekend will begin to weaken as a shortwave trough of low
pressure rounds the ridge over the western Great Lakes region. While
there will be chances for afternoon convection over the region
Sunday...this shortwave will likely bring the highest chances for
showers late Sunday night and Monday across the region as it
crosses.

This shortwave looks to also shunt Atlantic moisture to our
east...this moisture flowing northward from tropical activity off
the Southeast states. This will allow for lowering of the humidity
if the plume of moisture remains to our east as well as a dry
period for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

High Sunday will range through the 80s...while Monday through
Wednesday will feature highs from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance and surface warm front will cross the
region today. This will trigger scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm activity around/after 18Z. Greatest confidence in
convection is found in the Southern Tier, where instability will be
maximized, while confidence is lower at KBUF/KIAG where SW lake
breeze flow may keep convection limited to the east of the fields.
Likewise, lake shadowing should keep convection east of KART. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will diminish tonight with as the
disturbance will be well east of the forecast area along with the
lost of daytime heating.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the lakes today.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Winds and waves outside of any storms will
remain fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil
pattern will continue through the end of the week, although
thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves at times
each day through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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