Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281046
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid summer conditions will remain in place through Sunday...as high
pressure anchored off the East Coast will continue to pump near
record warmth and moderately high humidity northwards across our
region. This environment will become increasingly favorable for some
showers and thunderstorms...especially on Sunday. It will then
become more comfortable in the wake of a cold front into the middle
of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Many consider Memorial Day weekend as the unofficial start of
summer...and it will certainly feel that way today as Mother Nature
will supply us with weather more typical of the Fourth of July.

The sultry conditions will be supported by an expansive area of high
pressure that has been anchored off the East Coast for the past
several days. This feature will combine with general troughiness
over the Plains states to keep a deep southerly flow of very warm
and increasingly humid air flowing north from a wide open Gulf of
Mexico. This persistent pattern has allowed our airmass to modify
each of the past few days...and today it should peak with H85 temps
climbing to around 18c. Given the general dry conditions of the past
couple weeks and high sun angle...this airmass will easily support
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lake
plains and valleys. The higher temperature should also include more
of the BUF and ART metro areas...as a weaker and slightly more
southerly synoptic flow should keep the cooling affects of the lake
breezes closer the source. In fact...these readings will be very
close to record levels. See the climate section below for details.

As is usually the case with an increasingly uncomfortable mid summer
airmass...the environment will become more conducive for some
showers and thunderstorms. While this risk will be minimized today
by an amplifying mid level ridge (H5 hgts arnd 588dm)...there will
be a couple of lake breeze boundaries that will interact with the
favorable thermodynamic profile. One boundary will set up along Lake
Erie late this morning before slowly pushing east across the
Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes. A second...and possible
more pronounced boundary...will become established just south of
Lake Ontario. This second feature is not expected to push more than
20 miles south...basically remaining near or north of the NYS
Thruway. The boundaries will serve to focus some low level
convergence into an already unstable airmass...leading to some
midday and afternoon convection.

Like yesterday (Fri)...diurnal heating will encourage SBCAPEs to
climb to between 1500-2000 j/kg. Without any real capping...this
energy will be found within a tall `skinny` profile...and with
little shear to work with...any thunderstorm should remain below
severe criteria. Even so...PWAT values averaging 1.5" with little
flow aloft will favor slow moving downpours for those few areas that
could experience a storm. Have thus added a little enhanced wording
to the package to cover this potential. For most areas though...
today will simply feature a fair amount of sun with plenty of warmth
and humidity.

Tonight...the localized forcing from the lake breeze boundaries will
once again give way to large scale processes as the overlying ridge
will regain full control. As a result...any leftover convection
early in the evening will dissipate...leaving a warm and sultry
night for the region. Temperatures tonight will remain a full 10 deg
f above normal late May levels...as mins will only be in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

Expect one more day of heat and humidity on Sunday with afternoon
high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s from the Niagara
Frontier to the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. The
Southern Tier will be less warm with highs in the lower 80s, the
temperature restricted by the pervasive cloud cover. There will be
another warm muggy night on tap Sunday night with temperatures only
lowering to the mid 60s in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will push into Western and North-Central New
York Monday Night in the wake of a cool frontal passage, ushering in
a period of quieter weather. This period of tranquil early summer
weather will be driven by upper level ridging that will be amplifying
over the Lower Great Lakes in response to a trough digging across
the Northern Rockies and Upper Missouri Valley. Dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average should
prevail at least through Wednesday Night.

While model guidance differs somewhat in terms of details, the
general trend for the latter portion of next week will be a return
to more unsettled weather as the upper level ridge either flattens
out or shifts off to the east, depending on the model solution.
Either way, this will pave the way for a return to more humid
conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday
will be the transition day between the outgoing ridging and incoming
troughing, so have elected to go with low chance pops for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered off the East Coast will extend far enough
back across the Lower Great Lakes to supply generally fair...VFR
weather across the region today. The exception will come this
afternoon when there will be the risk for a couple slow moving
thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Region.
There could even be a thunderstorm or two along a lake breeze
boundary that will be stationary between KIAG and KROC.

Any convection will dissipate early this evening. This will leave
VFR conditions across the region.

Outlook...
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening ridge centered off the East Coast will extend back
to the northwest and supply the Lower Great Lakes with another fine
day for recreational boating. This will include another day of
light winds and negligible waves. While some towering cumulus clouds
and possible thunderstorms over inland areas may be visible from the
water...any convection will remain away from the lakes.

On Sunday...a slightly stronger sfc pressure gradient will encourage
winds to increase just a bit...but they should remain on the light
side with little wave action. Otherwise...there will be an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.

A cool front will cross the region Sunday night...then in the wake
of the front on Memorial Day...southwest winds will freshen on both
lakes. Conditions are still expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria though.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/WCH
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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