Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 090206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8PM...BULK OF SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE
WESTERN SECTIONS CCURRING WEST OF THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT PACK THE
PUNCH THE EARLIER STORMS HAD. AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR
SOME VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THUS THERE`LL BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT AND ITS MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES. AS THESE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER/ALLEGANY PLATEAU REGION. IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARING US. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

THURSDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE REMOVED FROM THE PRECEDING DAYS STORMS...THERE WILL BE ONLY
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED.

AFTER ANOTHER FAIR COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A FINE DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH A WESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE
TIMING SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS...WITH ACTIVITY ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY EVENING.

ON SUNDAY A DEEPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN POSSIBLY FORM WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP A LAKE ERIE SHADOW THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIKELY DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THEN SURROUNDING LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE DATA...BUT THE
CONSENSUS IF FOR A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE THIS PERIOD. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SETTLING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 14
TO 16C RANGE WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT
ANYTHING HOT OR EXTREME. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S ALL
THREE DAYS...WITH COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH
60S...AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH STORMS ALSO
EXITING THE AREA. SOME MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AS MAINLY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS. ON WEDNESDAY LOOK FOR
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THO AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SHARPENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ANOTHER WEAKER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF MORE CALM CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...RSH/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN







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