Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
437 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS STEERING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING COOLING
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HELP IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE MID-WINTER
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF A
CHANCE OF SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS OBSERVED ON
AREA RADARS. RADAR VELOCITY PRODUCT SHOWS CLEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FRONT
WHICH LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT IS DUE IN PART TO BRIGHT BANDING.
EXPECT A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH QPF WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPING. NEAR TERM MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER BY NOON. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.

EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR HELPING TO BRING IN PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORES. A WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
LINGERING INLAND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LONGER. THE COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MOST SPOTS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERALLY KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR HELPING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S. NAM
AND GFS MODELS DO SHOW A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO BRIEFLY
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT. WHILE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF A LIMITED PERIOD OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS PROFILES SHOW MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
LIFT ENHANCED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE TO MUCH IF AT ALL. EAST OF LAKE ERIE MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT DISPLACED WELL
BELOW THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
THIS SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR EVEN JUST SOME
FLURRIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS KEEPS JUST CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES...WITH ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND A LOW CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BURGEONING HIGH
WILL SPELL MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA...SAVE FOR SOME FLURRIES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR CROSSES THE
LOWER LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLOW BUT STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN READINGS FALLING BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S MONDAY DIPPING INTO THE 20S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 MONDAY
NIGHT...AND EVEN COLDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD...THE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC AND SWINGS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TOGETHER...THESE FEATURES WILL CIRCULATE A GENERAL WESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE
MAIN PERIOD OF MORE BACKED FLOW COMING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.

WHILE 850 MB TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE FROM
AROUND -17C TO -10C AND WILL THUS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A LAKE RESPONSE...THE CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY LOW CAPPING INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER LAKE ERIE...ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT BEST.
TOGETHER THESE FACTORS WOULD LIKELY ACT TO INHIBIT MUCH OF A LAKE
RESPONSE...AND IN TURN POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE HAVE ACCORDINGLY
BEEN LOWERED TO BELOW THE CHANCE THRESHOLD RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. OFF LAKE ONTARIO SOMEWHAT BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A
HIGHER CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LAKE SNOWS
THROUGHOUT...SO HAVE GENERALLY RETAINED MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS SHOULD JUST BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD...
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

ON FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
SOMEWHERE OVER TEXAS. THE ENSUING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS OUR
REGION AND RAPIDLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANY
LINGERING LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING APART THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AGAIN REMAINING MAINLY DRY. WITH SOME WARMING OF OUR
AIRMASS...TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RECOVER BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION...ALBEIT AT DIFFERING RATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARMUP...ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MORE
GENERAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WARMUP IN
QUESTION AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...AT THIS POINT WILL JUST
INTRODUCE BROADBRUSH LOWER-END CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPS RISING TO JUST A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING WEST TO EAST. SOME TEMPO IFR IS
FOUND WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EAST OF LAKE ERIE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT MAY BRING
SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLE IFR IN WSW LAKE EFFECT
-SHRA...MVFR/VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE WEST THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN WINDS WILL GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES SLACKENING THROUGH TODAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK BEFORE WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN AND STRENGTHEN AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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