Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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123
FXUS61 KBUF 220602
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY... BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEK MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY EASE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION. LIMITED MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SHOULD MERELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA...WITH DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER OTHERWISE CONTINUING.

AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR FIRST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OR DISCUSSION.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH A SEASONALLY COLD AIRMASS /-2 TO -
5 C 850 MB TEMPS/ OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST
AND EVEN A POTENTIAL IN FREEZE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE AN
OVERNIGHT FREEZE ARE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY...AS WELL INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AWAY FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CLOSER...PROMOTING VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WHICH
WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO INCLUDE CHAUTAUQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE TROUBLE GOING CALM...EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR LOW-
LAYING PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. AREAS
SURROUNDING THIS FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED FROST ADVISORIES ONCE
CONFIDENCE GROWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AS TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID 30S APPEARS LIKELY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WITH H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION MODIFYING TO BETWEEN +4
AND 6C BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN FULL SUNSHINE...THIS WILL GENERATE
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. A MILDER FLOW OF AIR BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
FROM QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID WEST. WHILE
WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...OUR TREND OF CLIMBING MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THERE ARE THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLES THAT RIDGING PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVER OUR
REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...CERTAINLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKELY IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE PERIOD LEADING UP TO THIS AS
WELL...AS THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH
SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INDISCRIMINATE SHORTWAVES RIDING
UP ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO PRODUCE DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF THE GROWING SEASON WOULD
CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED. MOST AREAS ARE RUNNING ONE TO TWO INCHES
BELOW NORMAL WITH RAINFALL THIS MONTH...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
AVERAGING MORE THAN FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE CALENDAR
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THEN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES AS IT PASSES
THROUGH... WITH THESE HAVING NO IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WHILE
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT... IN GENERAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS/ATTENDANT MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY FALLING BACK
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY 08/09Z.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...VEERING
WINDS AROUND TO WESTERLY WILL INCREASE WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
WAVES PEAKING AROUND 3 FEET. WINDS NEARING 15 TO 18 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SUSTAIN THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ON LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A SCA AT THIS POINT IS STILL TOO LOW
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL QUIET CONDITIONS WIND/WAVE-WISE ON THE
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ007-008-012-013-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/WCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS



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