Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






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